Well, I think we can officially call it a slump. Despite the Bears scoring 27 points last week, the props improved from the 0-3 collapse in week 2, but 1-2 isn’t exactly something to get excited about. That puts our yearly record at 3-6. As we close in on this week’s game, there are still questions abounding, like who is playing quarterback for the Bears? Despite questions, we march forward with what we hope are answers.
Is it time to fade me? Up to you, but here are three props I like for this week’s
Jets-Bears matchup at Soldier Field. As always, odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Cole Kmet OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards, -114
I am expecting Tyson Bagent to start this game for the Chicago Bears. If that’s accurate, there’s one thing I remember from when Bagent started back in 2023: he looked for Cole Kmet. Kmet had some of his best games as a Bear when Bagent started. I’m not saying I think Bagent is necessarily going to spam Kmet for 10 targets, but when you haven’t played much of any QB with this group of players, looking for an old reliable makes a lot of sense. I think Bagent looks for and connects with Kmet for a handful of catches, and we see this one go over at some point in the first half.
Also, at the time of this article, there were no D’Andre Swift props due to his injury; he will almost certainly play, and the props should arise this weekend. I think Swift over receiving yards is another good play. Bagent frequently looks for RBs as well.
Braelon Allen OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards, -114
Picking some props this week is a little tough. We have no Swift props. No Bears QB props, so we are doing the best we can! I think we can admit that the Bears’ run defense isn’t great. They gave up 175 yards to the Chubba Hubbard, Jonathan Brooks, AJ Dillon trio. They gave up over 100 rushing yards to Aaron Jones, and they gave up 80 first-half yards to Saquon Barkley before the defense clamped down in the second half.
If you think the Bears have figured out stopping the run based on the second half of Monday Night Football, look elsewhere, but I think they are still vulnerable in the running game. Breece Hall is out, and that means Allen should receive the lion’s share of the load here. I think he sees at least 15 touches and lands over 70 yards rushing.
Luther Burden OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards, -114
As I try to think of how Ben Johnson is going to attack this defense with Bagent, you have to figure it’ll be similar to Keenum in that Bagent doesn’t exactly have a cannon, so short passes will be the way to go. That means targets for Kmet and Swift, but I also think it’ll mean targets for Burden to catch short passes in situations where Johnson sets him up to go for some serious YAC.
I think Burden will see the most targets on the Bears this week, and I think he will break a couple of decent chunk gains and get his yardage total comfortably over 50.
