Today’s a big day, as Ohio State (13-5, 5-3) and No. 3 Michigan (17-1, 7-1) rekindle their rivalry on the hardwood up north at the Crisler Center. Promises were made back in October. Words were said on Tuesday night after Ohio State’s overtime win over Minnesota.
And oh yeah, Ohio State fans still can’t stand Roddy Gayle Jr.
Tonight, Jake Diebler goes up against Dusty May for the second time since the two coaches were anointed the heads of two of the most storied college basketball programs in America.
May, Gayle, and the Wolverines won the only matchup between the two teams last season, 86-83 in Columbus. Down two points with 58 seconds remaining in the game, Ohio State forced a Vlad Goldin miss, but gave up an offensive rebound to Danny Wolf. Wolf then missed on the putback as well, but Goldin grabbed that miss — Michigan’s second offensive rebound of the possession — and scored to put the Wolverines back up by two possessions once again.
The Buckeyes were able to get it back within two points in the very end, and Bruce Thornton nearly sent it to overtime — getting Danny Wolf to fall on a filthy shot fake — but Thornton’s floater from about 5 feet away with one second remaining was short on everything, falling to the floor without so much as grazing the net.
Last year’s game was close, and Ohio State was actually a 1.5-point favorite in that game. Tonight’s game is not expected to be close, and the third-ranked Wolverines were 15.5-point favorites as of Friday morning. Can Ohio State keep it close with the Wolverines?
Last week, Connor and Justin debated what should be allowed and what shouldn’t be allowed when it comes to professional basketball players — American and foreign — playing college basketball. Connor said that if someone has received a paycheck for playing basketball, they should forfeit their collegiate eligibility. Justin said that the only restriction should be the NCAA forbidding anyone who has played in the NBA from playing college basketball.
Michigan is No. 1 in the NET, No. 1 in KenPom, and has the best odds to win the national championship at +400, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Is there anything Ohio State can do to give itself a chance to win on Friday night?
This week’s question: What is something Ohio State must do to have a chance to beat Michigan?
Connor: Christoph Tilly needs to re-learn how to hit 3’s
After re-watching each of Wisconsin’s 15 three-point makes against Michigan that led the Badgers to victory — Michigan’s only loss of the season — I’ve come to the realization that Ohio State can’t win this game if Christoph Tilly doesn’t hit a few three-pointers.
Wisconsin’s advantage over Michigan on January 10 was the fact that they have multiple post players who can shoot. The Badgers ran the same play repeatedly that day, taking advantage of Michigan center Aday Mara’s inability (or unwillingness) to guard the perimeter.
Basically, Wisconsin would use one of Nolan Winter or Aleksas Bieliauskas (who were being guarded by Mara at the time) to set a screen for one of Wisconsin’s guards. Since Winter is 7-feet tall and Bieliauskas is 6-foot-10, Michigan’s guards struggled to fight through the screen. Wisconsin’s guards would then get around the defender and start dribbling towards Mara in the middle of the floor, while the Michigan guard chased from behind.
This put Mara in an uncomfortable spot in no-man’s-land. The 7-foot-3, 255-pound center suddenly had a guard dribbling directly towards him, but the man he was supposed to be guarding was now hanging out at the top of the three-point line. In this spot, Mara basically had no choice but to guard the ball and ignore the player he was originally guarding (the big).
As soon as Wisconsin was able to dribble towards the paint, they kicked the ball back out to one of their big guys waiting on the wing, and more often than not, those big guys were hitting their threes. Winter and Bieliauskas combined to go 8-for-14 from three in that game, while Michigan’s entire team went 8-for-25.
Wisconsin took advantage of a clear hole in Michigan’s elite defense — Mara. He’s a big-time shot blocker, but he’s not willing to guard athletic big men who can shoot. When he gets pulled towards the perimeter, he puts Michigan in a compromised position more often than not.
The only player on Ohio State’s roster who can potentially replicate the Winter/Beliauskas role is Tilly. The 7-footer shot 32% from three-point range last year, and Ohio State fans were looking forward to him being an inside-outside threat this year. Unfortunately, that’s not how it’s gone, with Tilly shooting 5-for-39 from three so far (12.8%).
Michigan starts three guys who are 6-foot-9 or taller, so the painted area is a danger zone for opponents trying to score on Michigan down low. Opponents only shoot 40.7% from two-point range against Michigan, and opponents’ average two-point distance is 7.7 feet
Translation: Nobody scores on Michigan below the basket. Nobody even gets close enough to the basket to make it close.
Assuming he is guarded by Mara, Tilly is going to have some good, clean looks from three on Friday. For Ohio State to win, he’ll need to flush what’s happened so far this year, pretend he’s 0-for-0 from three, and spark Ohio State’s offense by knocking a few down, because nobody will have a better mismatch than him.
Justin: Shoot the lights out
Not only does Christoph Tilly need to relearn to shoot the basketball, but everyone needs to shoot it well on Friday night for the Buckeyes to have a chance.
The proof is simple. Michigan has lost one game this season, and in that game, Wisconsin won 91-88 and finished 15-for-33 (45%) from three-point range.
This season, Michigan leads the Big Ten with 92.7 points per game and in field goal percentage at 51.7%. It does not matter how good your defense is; the Wolverines are going to put points on the board, and the Buckeyes are No. 11 in points allowed at 72.2 per game. While this is not a terrible number, they are going to give up points to this high-octane Michigan offense.
So, the best way to beat them is to simply outscore them. They almost did last season, falling 86-83 at home, but overall could not quite get to the magic number of 90.
John Mobley, Bruce Thornton, and Devin Royal have all shot the three-ball well, and they will need to continue that Friday night. Even with those three shooting it at a high rate, the Buckeyes are only shooting 34% from three-point range and are No. 10 in the conference.
They will need to shoot the ball similarly to Wisconsin, taking around 22-28 attempts and making 12-15 of them. The Wolverines have the advantage in the paint by a landslide with their height and length, so the Buckeyes will have to shoot it well.
It is that simple.
