Bill Parcells, who coached four teams over 19 seasons in the NFL, once said that “you are what your record says you are.”
If that still holds true, then the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots should
save everyone the trouble and call off Sunday’s game in Foxborough, Mass. After all, the Browns are just 2-5 after breaking a three-game losing streak, while the 5-2 Patriots have won four in a row and are one of the league’s early-season darlings.
One problem with simply conceding the game is that the Patriots may not actually be as good as their record indicates.
Those five wins by the Patriots? Four of them have come against the Miami Dolphins, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Tennessee Titans, teams that enter this weekend a combined 7-21.
Even their fifth win, an impressive one on the road against the Buffalo Bills, is balanced out a bit by losing to the woeful Las Vegas Raiders.
Much will be made this week about New England’s stout run defense, which is second in yards per game (77.1), third in yards per carry (3.4), and has yet to allow 50 yards to a running back, and what that means for Cleveland running back Quinshon Judkins.
While those are nice numbers, they have been built in part against teams ranked No. 21 (Saints), No. 24 (Raiders), No. 26 (Dolphins), and No. 31 (Titans). So while the Patriots shut them down, it is not as if those teams have been rolling over the rest of the league.
New England quarterback Drake Maye has also upped his game in his second season, completing a league-best 75.2 percent of his passes, posting six consecutive games with a passer rating of 100-plus, and has 12 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.
But Maye has put up those numbers against defenses with an EPA/Play ranking of:
- No. 23 – Raiders
- No. 32 – Dolphins
- No. 25 – Steelers
- No. 20 – Panthers
- No. 21 – Bills
- No. 18 – Saints
- No. 27 – Titans
The Browns will counter with a defense that is No. 5 in EPA/Play, is No. 1 with a grade of 89.3 from Pro Football Focus, has allowed the sixth-fewest explosive passing plays in the league, is No. 3 in pass defense (173.7 yards per game), and hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer in 35 consecutive games.
While they do not always play up to their potential, it is not a stretch to say Cleveland’s defense is by far the best that Maye will have faced this season. And they will need to be on top of their game on Sunday, especially since Cleveland’s offense is still struggling to score points.
Teams can only play the schedule they are given, and the Patriots deserve credit for taking care of business against the league’s bottom feeders. And on more Sundays than not, the Browns fall into that category.
But every Sunday brings with it a new opportunity, and this week the Browns have the opportunity to show the rest of the league that the Patriots may not, in fact, be what their record says they are.
