The Los Angeles Rams are back where they were at this time last year: the divisional round of the playoffs. This time, they will be the team that’s favored and the team with more playoff experience. The Rams are the team looking
to get back to the NFC Championship with a chance to go to the Super Bowl. On Sunday, they will be taking on the Cinderella team that America is cheering for to win. The Rams will look to put a stop to a team that has consistently won when the odds were against them. This season, the Rams have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL. Against the Bears, they’ll need to prove it. Here are five keys to victory.
1. Win the game in the trenches
If the weather is going to be cold, the Rams have to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This is one area where the Rams actually have a significant advantage. The Bears defense has allowed the second-most yards before contact in the NFL this season at 1.9. Since Week 10, they have allowed 2.8 yards before contact. he Rams are getting Kevin Dotson back for this game, and their adjusted line yards and their adjusted line yards in the running game is the best of the last 30 years. Since Week 10, the Rams are getting 2.64 yards before contact on offense.
That doesn’t mention that the Bears rank 27th in quarterback pressure rate at 31.6 percent and the Rams are allowing the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. On the offensive side of the ball, the Rams have a significant advantage in the trenches and it isn’t particularly close. That’s something that will work in the Rams’ favor.
While the Rams offense has been the best running team via success rate in the NFL, the Bears aren’t far behind. It’s been the strength of their team. They also have a 48.5 percent rushing success rate. Their 0.4 EPA per rush ranks fourth. The key here is that this has been the strength of the Rams defense for most of the season. The Rams built their defense this season to stop the run.
They have allowed a few explosive runs over the last eight weeks. However, they got back to what worked against the Panthers as Chuba Hubbard has 3.5 yards per carry and Rico Dowdle has 1.8. The Rams may not get negative plays, but their 37.6 percent rushing success rate ranks sixth in the NFL. That’s been the case even over the last six weeks. Since Week 14, the Rams have allowed a rushing success rate of 36.9 percent despite ranking 23rd in rushing EPA. In other words, from down to down, the run defense has remained very good. It’s the explosive runs to Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson that have hurt them statistically. The Rams should be able to do enough against the Bears’ run game to give them the edge. Chicago will also be without their starting left tackle.
2. Lean into 13P and both running backs
The Rams have leaned into 13 personnel for the most part over the back-half of the season. Running the ball and utilizing the tight ends has been a big part of their identity. However, that wasn’t the case last week against the Panthers. This week, the offense needs to get back into 13 personnel and running the football with both running backs. The Bears don’t have the bodies to defend the Rams in heavier packages out of nickel. If the Bears match in nickel, the Rams offense will eat. They will be without TJ Edwards at linebacker which should allow the Rams to get heavy and run inside consistently. It will also allow the Rams to attack the edges.
The Rams should be able to mix things up with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum with success. However, this needs to be a Blake Corum game. Only James Cook has more runs out of inside zone and duo looks this season and Williams has a 60 percent success rate. With that said, the Bears lack mobility inside. They actually defend man/duo runs and inside zone well. Outside zone is where you can gash them. The Bears allow the seventh most yards per carry on outside zone runs and have allowed the fifth-most yards on explosive plays. As a whole, the Bears allow the sixth-highest explosive run rate on defense.
On that note, Blake Corum is second in the NFL in explosive run rate on outside zone concepts. He is very good at finding the cutback lane and getting up to speed. Since Week 7, Corum ranks 12th in explosive run rate on all runs. Among running backs with at least 100 carries during that span, that jumps up to sixth. Williams plays a strong role in the offense in that he keeps them on track. However, if the Rams lean into the run game more, they’ll need to find the occasional explosive. That’s where Corum excels and it’s something that the Bears are susceptible to giving up.
This should also provide strong matchups for Puka Nacua. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a combined 20 receptions for 254 yards and three touchdowns in two games against the Bears this season. If the Rams can get Nacua lined up over the slot, the Bears rank 30th in the NFL in EPA per slot target. The Rams should be able to run the ball to set up efficient passes as they did in Week 7 against the Jaguars.
3. Limit damage on explosives
When it comes to the Rams defense, the overall ethos is limiting explosive plays and forcing teams to work their way down the field in small chunks before locking down in the red zone. However, that hasn’t been the case as of late. The Rams have allowed the second-most explosive passes over the last six weeks. Against non-Arizona Cardinals opponents, the defense has allowed a 71.4 percent touchdown rate in the red zone.
Caleb Williams is a quarterback that is going to look to push the ball downfield. Williams has the fourth-most passing yards this season on passes of 20 or more yards. However, he also ranks fourth with the most yards on short passes. Where Williams struggles is in the intermediate area of the field. He has the fifth-worst completion percentage in the intermediate areas of the field behind Bryce Young.
Williams is a much more athletic version of Young and when he extends the play, he’s going to look for breakdowns in the secondary. It’s very possible that the Rams pass rush flushes Williams, but he has the second-lowest pressure to sack rate in the NFL and leads the NFL in big-time throws while under pressure. It’s going to be critical for the secondary to hold up over time. The big plays are likely going to happen, but can the Rams sack Williams twice in those situations? Can the edges contain Williams in the pocket while the interior players like Kobie Turner and Braden Fiske wrap up inside?
Last season, D’Andre Swift didn’t look good before playing the Rams. With the Rams needing a stop, Swift scampered for a 36-yard touchdown run. Swift is playing much better this season. The Rams can’t allow the explosive runs as they did in losses against the Seahawks and Falcons or the playoff loss last season against the Eagles. That’s especially the case in the fourth quarter. If the Rams take away the big plays out of structure, they should be able to get some stops on defense.
4. Protect the football
The Bears defense might not be very good, but they are extremely opportunistic. Chicago’s defense isn’t a unit that wins because they are better, but because they maximize opposition mistakes. They lead the NFL in turnover differential at +22 which is five turnovers better than the Houston Texans. Their 33 turnovers, which are led by 23 interceptions, lead the NFL as well. Kevin Byard leads the Bears with seven interceptions and Nashon Wright has four. The Bears may be without TJ Edwards, but Tremaine Edmunds has four interceptions as well. This is how the Bears defense wins. They are 26th in defensive success rate, but they live off of turnovers.
When the Bears force a turnover, they are 11-4 this season. That’s not even winning the turnover battle. Their only losses are against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, the Green Bay Packers, the San Francisco 49ers, and Detroit Lions in Week 18. Only against the 49ers did they end up losing the turnover battle as well. Against the Vikings, Packers, and Lions, they still ended up even. If there is a positive, it’s that three of those losses all came within the last six weeks. Conversely, they are 1-2 when they don’t force a turnover and their lone win came last week.
Matthew Stafford has come back to earth a little bit. After having a turnover-worthy play rate of 1.9 percent in Weeks 1-12 which was the fourth-lowest in the NFL, it has jumped to 4.7 percent which is the fourth-highest since Week 13. It’s simply a regression back to the mean. Stafford has thrown two interceptions in two games this year and the Rams are 0-2. The weather will also be a factor in this game which is more of a factor for Kyren Williams who had a fumble last year in the snow. Williams has to keep two hands on the ball in this game. If the Rams turn the ball over, the defense isn’t good enough on the other side to overcome it.
One other thing worth noting here is fourth downs. The Bears went for it on fourth down 29 times this season which was only the 12-most in the NFL. They also converted at a below average rate of 51.7 percent. However, the Bears went for it on fourth down six times last week against the Packers. Ben Johnson comes from the Dan Campbell system. There is a chance that Johnson understands that the defense isn’t good enough and tries to maximize possessions. The Rams need to be ready.
5. Don’t take their foot off the gas
The Bears won seven games this season after trailing in the last two minutes. Meanwhile, all five of the Rams’ losses have come after giving up a game-winning drive late in the game or in overtime. Two of the Rams’ losses have come after surrendering a 10-point lead in the second half. The Bears just won that type of game last week, coming back from 21-3 in the second half.
This is one of the best fourth quarter teams in the NFL and a big reason for that is because it fits into Caleb Williams’ play-style. It allows him to play more out of structure and fish for the big plays. The Bears lead the NFL in fourth quarter scoring as they average 9.6 points per game. Outside of a few exceptions, the Rams’ fourth quarter defense has been good. However, there is a drastic difference in their home vs. away splits. At home, the Rams allow 3.8 points per game in the fourth quarter. On the road, that number jumps to 8.1. Both fourth-quarter collapses came on the road. They allowed 14 points in the fourth quarter last week.
The Rams have to play a full game. If they take a double-digit lead, they have to be able to control the clock and put drives together. They can’t allow the explosive, back-breaking plays on defense. This has to be a game in which the Rams lock in for 60 minutes and don’t stop until the clock hits triple zeroes.
