Right now, depending on where you look in Vegas, the Jets’ O/U sits at 5.5 wins. With the odds leaning toward the over, the Jets’ projected win total by Vegas is likely modeled somewhere in the ~5.7 to 5.8 range. As everyone is aware, that isn’t great!
But as always, although there’s a lot of predictive value in using Vegas projections, the market is frequently wrong. Just take a look at last year. The Seahawks exceeded their preseason win total by 6 games, the Jaguars by nearly 6 as well, and the Broncos
by 5. Meanwhile, teams like the Chiefs, Cardinals, and Commanders all disappointed by at least 5 wins from their preseason expectations.
After doing some thinking, I’ve made some cases for the Jets on either side of the spectrum. How can they vastly overperform their ~6 win expectation this year, and how can they vastly underperform it?
Although injuries might be the main component that drives teams to startling differences from preseason projections, I won’t even attempt to prognosticate them here. These “stories” won’t have injuries factored in. These scenarios also have varying degrees of likelihood. I don’t want to write about something that I think has less than a 1% chance of happening, but I’ll also warn you that I’m not going to act like either scenario is incredibly likely.
Let’s take a look at what could happen this year that would allow the Jets to meaningfully differ from their preseason projection. We’ll follow up with the negative version in our next article, but for now let’s take a look at the positive case:
The Positive Spin
How can the Jets meaningfully overachieve this season in a somewhat plausible way? In my opinion, it’s going to start in the trenches.
The Jets enter the season with major question marks at head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback. That’s not an ideal trio to have questions about entering the season, and it’s obviously a major reason why the Jets’ projection is sitting where it is. So how can the Jets overcome those question marks?
Competent offensive line play.
I don’t have a full-scale research study to back this up, but I do know off the top of my head that historically, offensive lines are a huge barometer for raising an offense’s floor.
I took a quick look at last year’s numbers and examined how every team that ranked in the top 10 in offensive line play by PFF finished as an offense. As you might expect, the results were strong.
Out of the top 10 offensive lines last year, every single one had a league-average or better offense except for the Giants, who ranked 22nd by DVOA. If you expand the analysis even further, even having a league-average offensive line pretty much guaranteed that your offense wouldn’t be a complete dumpster fire. Every offense with a PFF offensive line ranking of 16th or better finished 23rd or higher in offensive DVOA. None were amongst the leagues worst.
The evidence is clear; a good offensive line can give an otherwise questionable offense a much higher floor. For the Jets, there’s a legitimate story to sell yourself on this offensive line. There’s been a lot of high-quality investment in the unit over the past few seasons and, on paper, there theoretically should be a lot of potential.
Armand Membou just turned 22, and between his rookie season and his collegiate pedigree, he has as good a chance as anyone on this roster to break out into a legitimate top-tier tackle sooner rather than later. Olu Fashanu is only 23 and now has two straight years where he’s graded at least average. He’s another guy where it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take another leap. Then you have the 25-year-old Joe Tippmann, who theoretically should be entering his prime and has already proven to be a capable, average guard at this level.
With Dylan Parham, who should also be entering his prime, and Josh Myers at the other two positions, you have two guys who, while not world beaters, shouldn’t be bad enough to sink the rest of the offensive line.
The floor is less stable than some of the other offensive lines in the league, but there is a realistic story where this line looks like a borderline top-10 unit as early as this year.
Brandon Thorn of Bleacher Report had the Jets at 15th going into the offseason, while a super bullish analysis from Joseph Bryan, formerly of Pro Football Focus, had the Jets at 6th.
Bottom line, if this unit does hit its potential this year, it should be a top-half-of-the-league unit. The offensive line also matters a bit more because of the uncertainty at quarterback.
We don’t need to rehash it, but Geno Smith was awful behind an awful offensive line last year despite three seasons prior of league-average to better play in Seattle. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2022, Geno has consistently been one of the better operators from clean pockets, regularly ranking highly in accuracy percentage in clean situations.
A potential bounce-back year could realistically happen if this offensive line holds up, especially with a healthy Garrett Wilson and young-upside pass catchers like Adonai Mitchell, Omar Cooper, Mason Taylor, and Kenyon Sadiq, who should all get plenty of opportunities this year.
And none of this even mentions a defense that will likely begin Week 1 with 8-9 new starters. Never say never, but it would be almost impossible for this defense to play as poorly as it did last year.
Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, and David Onyemata are veterans, and it remains to be seen how much each has left in the tank. But all three were effective players last year and should theoretically be major floor raisers for the unit.
From a turnover perspective, we already discussed how it would be borderline unheard of for the Jets not to get strong improvement on that front. It legitimately cannot get worse from an interception perspective. And recent history shows that the Jets should significantly outperform last year in terms of forcing turnovers.
Then there’s David Bailey, the prize acquisition of this offseason. By all accounts through camp and the preseason, Bailey appears to be a guy who is ready to make a major impact immediately. If the No. 2 pick can be a legitimate NFL-caliber edge rusher in Year 1, which according to all reports should be the expectation, the Jets should be pairing a capable offensive line with a top-half defensive line, especially with the depth they possess at defensive tackle.
So what does all of this lead us to? In this scenario, the Jets would almost assuredly overachieve their 6-win projection and become a scrappy Wild Card contender. The offense, led by a good offensive line and a collection of young pass catchers, would project to be at least an average unit. Meanwhile, a defense with improved talent and some regression to the mean from a turnover perspective would also be wildly improved.
It would be a pleasant surprise for Jets fans: a bunch of young players taking steps forward, a competent offensive line giving the offense a chance, and a defense that led by their front 7 experiences major improvement on the turnover front. That’s a pretty easy recipe for going from 5-6 wins to 8-10 wins. That’s likely how the Jets overachieve their preseason projection.
I’m not saying this scenario is the most likely one, but I also don’t think there’s no chance it happens.
