The Tennessee Vols didn’t end up in very high esteem of the voting media in advance of the 2025 season, coming in #24 in the preseason AP Poll. They got a substantially higher nod from the coaches (probably the better group to get a higher ranking from) in their preseason poll, coming in #18.
Those are respectable numbers for a team like Tennessee who is replacing swaths of roster holes after a strong 2024 season that ended in the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.
However, of
all things, the computers of ESPN continue to see a far better season coming for the Vols. The Mothership put out its updated FPI rankings on Sunday, and the Vols are still right there at #8.
The breakdown is interesting. The index projects Tennessee to finish with a 9-3 record this season (9.0-3.1 were the numbers they had, to be exact). That gives them a 43.4% chance of making the playoff, a 7% chance of making the national title game, and a 3.1% chance of winning it all. They have Tennessee as almost a complete lock (99.5%) of winning at least 6 games but only a 0.7% chance of running the table.
In short, they see Tennessee on the cusp of the playoff bubble with a shot at getting in at 9-3. I think a lot of UT fans would take that and run this season, as that feels kind of like a better case scenario for the season, to be honest.
Their explanation for the rankings is as follows:
“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”
I find that to be curious, as I’m not really sure what concrete means they’re rating that on, particularly given the large number of question marks spread out across the roster. Joey Aguilar’s fit in Josh Heupel’s offense. The offensive line gelling with 4 new starters. Mike Matthews becoming a star and second and third passing game options emerging. Jermod McCoy’s health and timeline for a return. The defensive line being as deep and capable as it was last year.
I don’t know how computers can answer those, frankly, impossible (at this point) to answer questions, but for whatever reason, they see a solid season likely in line for Tennessee.
We’ll find out soon enough who was right – man or computer – as the start of the season is less than a week away.
