With the wait time over for exclusive negotiations with impending free agents, the San Diego Padres have 10 free agents hitting the market. They advanced qualifying offers to both Dylan Cease and Michael
King and those two players have 10 days to submit their acceptance or refusal.
All the other MLB teams have done the same and most of the available free agents are known at this point. Only 13 players were tendered qualifying offers. Besides Cease and King, they are DH Kyle Schwarber, OF Kyle Tucker, SP Ranger Suarez, SP Framber Valdez, SS Bo Bichette, OF Trent Grisham, 2B Gleyber Torres, RP Edwin Diaz, SP Brandon Woodruff, SP Zac Gallen and SP Shota Imanaga.
Despite whether any of these players accept their offers, the free agent market will boast multiple options in areas of need for the Padres. If Imanaga and Gallen become available, there will be even better choices.
For the purposes of this exercise, I am only listing players who project to have reasonable contracts that could possibly fit within the limitations of the Padres present payroll. After the loss of Yu Darvish for 2026 and knowing that Joe Musgrove is in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, the Padres biggest area of need will be starting pitching. Luckily, there are multiple quality arms available that might not break the bank.
The Padres exercised the $6.5 million option on Ramón Laureano and his salary is included as the starting left fielder for next year.
Based on Fangraphs payroll estimation, the Padres projected payroll for 2026 is $201 million. This includes all the buyouts and arbitration estimates for all the players on the payroll for 2026. Factoring in the additions of the AAV (average annual value) for the players who are on graduated deals, the payroll sits at $234 million in regard to the competitive balance tax (luxury tax). The arbitration estimates on this list could be high, but that will not affect the final total by more than a few million.
That total does not take into account any insurance money received due to Darvish missing the season. It also does not include if either King or Cease re-sign or accept their qualifying offers.
The luxury tax threshold for 2026 is $244 million with the second threshold at $264 million and the third threshold at $284 million. The top threshold is $304 million.
The Padres passed the second threshold for the 2025 season, but had reset their payroll below the threshold in 2024 so their penalty is relatively small, 20% of their overage. If they maintain that threshold for a second season, the tax is 30% of the overage. If a team exceeds the threshold by $20-$40 million, they also pay a 12% surcharge. It goes up to a 42.5% surcharge for $40-$60 million over the threshold.
So the free agent exercise will depend on how much the organization can afford to spend, but it seems obvious that the higher-priced and long-term contracts could be out of consideration.
The top players available are all expected to get large multi-year deals for upwards of $150-$400 million. Kyle Tucker is projected to go to the Los Angeles Dodgers for 10-11 years and above $350 million. Kyle Schwarber is older and is not expected to get such a long deal, but could see four years and $150 million approximately.
Assuming the Padres need three starting pitchers and a power hitter to start with, President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is going to have to get creative this offseason. If the team is willing to end up approximately where they did in 2025, the luxury tax payroll will have to stay from $244-$264 million to stay under the second threshold. That would give Preller about $30 million to work with to start the season, assuming nothing changes with the current roster.
Any trades will affect that number, as well as any player non-tendered instead of going through arbitration.
Spotrac.com has a different projection for the 2026 payroll that tops out at $190.7 million, but all the arbitration players receive $820,000 on that list. That is obviously not an accurate estimate. It’s possible the reality falls somewhere between the two, but either way, Preller looks to be on a strict budget unless they trade away some payroll.
Here is a short list of some budget friendly options for pitching and hitting that might fit within the restraints of the payroll as it now stands. Projections per The Athletic and MLBTradeRumors.
- RHP Michael King – if he is willing to re-sign with the Padres, King could still get between $20-$25 million per year, but his injury issues of last season could limit him to a shorter contract. Seems unlikely, but not impossible.
- RHP Zac Gallen – he is projected to get about two years and about $20 million per year after having a down 2025.
- RHP Lucas Giolitto – also had an injury issue in 2025 and may need to take a shorter term and less money.
- LHP Shota Imanaga – projected to get a 2-3-year contract at around $15 million per year, Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs both declined options for 2026. I would be excited to see if Ruben Niebla could help him straighten out his inconsistency.
- RHP Nick Martinez – the former Padre has proven to be a useful swing man in his career so far and the Padres could do worse than to bring him back. He projects at two years and $25 million.
- RHP Cody Ponce – has played the last four seasons between Japan and Korea with improving stuff and results. He is 31 years old and projects for two years and $18 million.
- LHP Foster Griffin – played in Japan in 2025 and posted a 1.62 ERA, but is primarily a bullpen option.
- LHP Anthony Kay – also went to Japan to resuscitate his career and could be an option for an MLB team.
- 1B Kazuma Okamoto – at 29 years old, he is a good all-around hitter, but there are concerns about his ability to hit high velocity. He still figures to get at least two to three years and is a Scott Boras client.
- 1B Josh Naylor – a former Padre, Naylor is a power-hitting first baseman that projects to get four to five years and $20-$25 million per year. This would most likely be outside the Padres budget unless the pitching came cheap.
- 1B/DH Rhys Hoskins – the 33-year-old had a down 2025, but was a consistent power hitter before that. Taking a flyer on him for a one- to two-year deal with options might make sense.
- DH Marcell Ozuna – at 35 years old, he also had an injury plagued 2025 and taking a one- to two-year deal for $10-$15 million per year could work out for the Padres.
There are many more options in this year’s free agent class. These are just a few obvious ideas with multiple players available from MLB teams as well as multiple players available from Japan and Korea. With a wealth of free agents listed for this offseason, Preller at least has a big tool box in which to work.
Depending on where the organization projects their payroll range for the coming season, the addition of one high quality free agent is reasonable. Converting a bullpen arm (Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon or Jeremiah Estrada) could be dependent on if enough starters can be acquired during the offseason. Preller has excelled in years past in finding quality pitching for bargain prices and we can hope that skill carries over for another offseason.
Signing a power bat could be a bigger challenge, but a look at the list of DH/1B/3B available players could give the Padres some quality for a reasonable price.
Another question mark will be the hitting philosophy and coaches signed under new manager Craig Stammen. There are already power hitters on this team and it will be the job of Stammen and his coaching staff to get more out of what is already here.
