I am going to take a break from my free agent posts to present a trade hypothetical. And I am very careful to call it a hypothetical, because I realize some responses will be “this team will not do that.” I understand. Obviously, I am not asking the Cardinals to make my specific trade, it just is a trade that I think makes sense for both teams. If the other team disagrees with my opinion, well then obviously the trade won’t happen. If the Cardinals disagree, then it won’t happen either. It is fairly
likely one or both of those will be the case.
But the response to this uncertainty about what each team actually thinks both about their own player and the player to trade for doesn’t have to be “welp I guess I won’t even try to think of trade scenarios.” First off, trade hypotheticals can be fun. I mean if you’ve ever played fantasy baseball and you’re reasonably involved, you have made trades. You make those trades because you think it improves your team, and improving your team is fun. Same principle, only me proposing a trade doesn’t mean anything will happen.
There’s been a lot of discussion about having a short-term upgrade at both CF and 3B. Scott Plaza talked about this in his most recent article yesterday. Tomorrow, Jake Wood will have a post with several CF solutions. I have proposed JP Crawford as a low cost, one-year solution while the multiple Springfield options spend the year in Memphis. A better player than Crawford who I would love if the Cardinals target, if he’s available, is Steven Kwan.
In case you aren’t a follower of anything AL, which is fair, let me describe Steven Kwan the baseball player. The good news is that it seems unlikely he would be harmed by Busch Stadium at all, because he has no power. The bad news is that he has no power. He was an above average hitter thanks primarily to a good average (in today’s game anyway) and a very high OBP. He had a .067 ISO, and honestly with how low that is, I really don’t think it would actually get worse at Busch Stadium, which means if he duplicated his line, his advanced metrics would say he was a better hitter.
Now to be fair, he did have a career high BB% and OBP and in the case of walk rate, it was a lot higher. This could have been a change of approach from him. He attempted to have some modicum of power, successfully, and it did result in a career high wRC+ and 14 homers. But then his followup season was a below average line and a career low BB%. So maybe in response to that, he went all-in on contact and OBP instead. He had a 13.3 BB% when his previous career high was 9.8%. His average was .282 which is exactly his career average. For you old school heads, that’s equivalent to a .300 average nowadays.
His offense is not a game changer, but his defense is really why you would acquire him. Although I am hesitant to take his 2026 numbers at face value due to a small sample. He was about a +6 OAA left fielder per 1,200 innings and he was quite literally twice as good as that in CF in half those innings. Now, what this means is he’s good enough defensively to be a centerfielder, which for the purposes of the 2027 team, is really all that matters. Elite defense is also on the table, but average would seem to be the floor. Because of his defense, he has been a 3 fWAR player every season of his career.
Maybe I should have started with that? He’d be an enormous upgrade over Nathan Church. Honestly, he’d be an upgrade over the Nathan Church who pans out, most likely. I would love it if Chuch surprised me next season, but he has quite a lot of ground to make up in this comparison, so I would place the odds at about the same odds of the Cardinals winning the World Series next season. If they got Kwan and upgraded the bullpen.
Why would the Cleveland Guardians give up Kwan if he’s so good? Money. They do not spend money. Kwan made $7.7 million last season, which means his contract would fall around $11-12 million next season. Not a big deal for most teams. And it’s entirely possible the Guardians have no problem with Kwan at $12 million. And frankly, they probably don’t. But with the low payroll teams, anybody over $10 million with a year to go is probably available on some level. So I think if you throw the Guardians a good trade, they would accept it. What they consider a good trade might not meet anybody’s asking price of course.
So let’s determine Steven Kwan’s value. Kwan, I said, will get either $11 or $12 million. Since he had a .282 average and .382 OBP AND played CF well, I’d be more inclined to go with the $12 million valuation. It wouldn’t surprise me if it was higher even than that because he had a 98 wRC+ in 2025, so his 2026 price wasn’t best on his best season. A bounceback could result in a slightly higher price.
Let’s call him a 3.5 WAR player. I think that’s fair, considering the reliance on his defense being very good in CF, which his LF career would at least not support. I mean he was a genuinely good defender in LF, but he was legitimately elite last year which would surprise me. I could see how going on the lower end of my arbitration price AND going with a lower WAR than he had last season might seem to a Guardians fan like me trying lower his trading price. I think it wouldn’t move the needle much, but I would also do this with the Cardinals if Kwan was a Cardinal.
As a 3.5 WAR player on a $12 million contract, valued at $10 million per WAR, Kwan would have $23 million in trade value. What this means is that you either need to give the other team a player with the equivalent surplus value considering their contract or the prospects have to be equivalent. Good news: this is just shy of a top 100 prospect, although I’m sure Cleveland will want that.
I don’t think many here would support a prospect approach. I’m guessing the Guardians would demand a top 100 prospect. That wouldn’t make sense for the Cardinals at this time. Sacrificing the future so that they may make the playoffs for the wild card for just one season. But maybe for an established MLB player who has no discernible role on the team given the current roster and what’s coming up? I’m talking about Ivan Herrera. Again, I’m not saying these are realistic, it’s just kind of a fun hypothetical.
I’m not actually going to calculate Herrera’s value. He’s been worth an average of 2 WAR over the past three seasons and in one of those seasons, he got 259 PAs. If you valued him as such, you don’t have to be very good at math to know that’s more than $23 million in surplus value. It’s not clear the Guardians do value him as such and it’s also not clear that’s how he’d be valued across the league, but certainly by the numbers, he would be worth a top 100 prospect. It feels like at least one team should value him as his career 119 wRC+ and maybe there’s a team that values him as a catcher. It only takes one team. Or maybe a team wants to move him to 1B. Really, honestly it takes one team to believe in him offensively. Then you just figure out where to put him. But his previously established offensive standard is at least an average player who you just figure out where to put.
From the Guardian’s standpoint, they did trade for Patrick Bailey, so not totally sure they want him at catcher. But Austin Hedges is reaching free agency and they have shown a willingness to play a below average defensive catcher who they sometimes play at catcher and also play at other positions in the form of David Fry. Who is a worse hitter than Herrera. (And he’ll probably get DFA’d) Or they maybe they would try him at 1B, since Nathaniel Lowe is reaching free agency. I think even the down version of Herrera would be an equal hitter to Kwan and offensively, he has better upside and I would say the betting odds would suggest Herrera will be a better hitter than Kwan.
So on paper, Kwan isn’t a good enough return for Herrera. I think I’m also in a weird position because some of you think the Guardians would want more than Herrera and some of you will think Herrera is too much for one year of an above average player. On paper, he’s not enough, but I know “on paper” works, so how do I pick someone who doesn’t have real value, but is somewhat future-oriented? Some of you will absolutely not like this, but my answer is an older reliever who some team control. Fearing his age will catch up to him at any minute, the Guardians cash out. On the Cardinals’ side, he still could have a few good years, because I think relievers work a little differently. They still decline and age, but I just feel like there are more good old relievers than other positions.
So Matt Festa. He has three years of team control. In the past 2 seasons Guardians have had him, he’s been pretty consistent. 24% K rate, 7% BB rate, roughly expected to be around a high 3.00 ERA and FIP. 1.4 fWAR the last two seasons. He’s not a great reliever, I also don’t really think that’s on the table. But he’d be an improvement in the bullpen. He would have been the 8th inning guy if he was on the Cards last season. Downside: he will be 34 next season. Like I said, I was searching for a value-less guy who might still improve the Cards, and I think an older good reliever is the only way both criteria fit.
Thoughts? Would you be good with this trade? I know it won’t happen.
