A combination of day games and morning news gave me a brief, impromptu break, but I’m back.
Before this season started, I thought the Braves might need to operate more like their 2019-2021 lot in life (nothing is guaranteed) than their 2022-2025, “Our roster is good enough to do whatever” framework. The Braves have done their best to make a mockery of that thought, as they have baseball’s best record and run differential, and can still avoid losing a single series if they win the next two in Seattle.
For the season, the biggest chase is a playoff spot. Then, we can talk about winning the division. If that’s secure, I guess the next thing to think about is a first-round bye. And then we’re really just talking best record in MLB.
- The Braves currently have playoff odds of 95 percent. Seven teams have increased their odds more over the course of the season so far, but only the Yankees started in a similar place and have increased their odds more than the Braves. Basically, it’s possible that the Braves will still be in for a fight just to grab a playoff spot, but I’m not sure it’s that likely unless there’s another multifaceted collapse in terms of both injuries and approach.
- The Braves currently have the third-highest division odds, and no team has gained more in this regard. Those division odds are about 83 percent right now, so again, I don’t think it’s unrealistic at all to say their fight will in the end, be for the division, but you could also set your sights higher.
- They have the third-highest odds of a bye, but second in the NL — i.e., someone would have to supplant them from the field, aside from the Dodgers. This could be the most interesting “race” down the stretch… if everything goes okay for the Braves going forward.
- With the wins they have banked, they now project for the third-most wins in MLB as a central estimate. If everything goes right, maybe this is a “race” where they either lead the rest of the way with excitement, or they try to chase down, say, the Dodgers.
Which of these do you think will be the story down the stretch — say, in late August?
