Here we go again: Can Houston’s 3–5 start spark another playoff run?

At this exact point in time last season, the Houston Texans were 3-5 coming off a gutsy loss to the 6-2 Denver Broncos. Both seasons have been filled with optimism and frustration, criticism and accolades, clumsy losses and big wins. Texans fans are well aware of what happened last year; they went on a nine game winning streak to close out the season and secure the fifth seed in the AFC Playoffs. The question is, can they do it again?

This article will compare the Texans current situation in the AFC

South, AFC, and remaining schedule through Week Nine of the NFL season against last year’s team.

2025 AFC South Standings through Week Nine

1. Indianapolis Colts: 7-2
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-3
3. Houston Texans: 3-5
4. Tennessee Titans: 1-8

2026 AFC South Standings through Week Nine

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-2
2. Houston Texans: 3-5
3. Indianapolis Colts: 2-7
4. Tennessee Titans: 1-8

In theory, Houston is in a much better place in the AFC South than last year. While the Colts were predicted to come back to earth, no one would predict they wouldn’t miss the playoffs entirely. Given both the Jags and Colts were playing such good football, winning the division was out of the question.

The Jags play the Titans two out of the next three games and also have Dallas (4-5), Washington (2-5-1), and Indianapolis (2-7) on their schedule. That’s five easy victories to get them to 11 wins. Catching Jacksonville may once again not be feasible. They’re currently the most efficient offense and most dominant defense in the league statistically. With Houston three games back from the Jags, it makes more sense to evaluate their place in the AFC.

2025 AFC Playoff Picture after Week 9

1. Indianapolis Colts (7–2, 6–1 AFC)
2. New England Patriots (7–2, 4–2 AFC)
3. Denver Broncos (7–2, 4–2 AFC)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (5–3, 4–1 AFC)
5. Buffalo Bills (6–2, 4–1 AFC)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6–3, 5–1 AFC)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5–3, 3–1 AFC)
8. Kansas City Chiefs (5–4, 2–3 AFC)
9. Houston Texans (3–5, 2–2 AFC)
10. Baltimore Ravens (3–5, 2–3 AFC)
11. Cincinnati Bengals (3–6, 3–2 AFC)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (2–6, 2–4 AFC)
13. Cleveland Browns (2–6, 1–4 AFC)
14. Miami Dolphins (2–7, 1–6 AFC)
15. New York Jets (1–7, 1–4 AFC)
16. Tennessee Titans (1–8, 0–7 AFC)

2026 AFC Playoff Picture after Week 9

1. Buffalo Bills (7-1, 4-1 AFC)
2. Denver Broncos (7-2, 3-1 AFC
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2, 5-2 AFC)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, 3-2 AFC)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 6-1 AFC)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 4-2 AFC)
7. New England Patriots (5-4, 5-1 AFC)
8. Cleveland Browns (5-4, 3-3 AFC)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (4-5, 3-3 AFC)
10. Baltimore Ravens (4-5, 2-4 AFC)
11. Houston Texans (3-5, 3-3 AFC)
12. New York Jets (2-7, 2-4 AFC)
13. Indianapolis Colts (2-7, 1-5 AFC)
14. Miami Dolphins (1-7, 1-4 AFC)
15. Tennessee Titans (1-7, 1-5 AFC)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (0-8, 0-5 AFC)

Visually, the Texans occupy a more precarious position within the conference than they did at this juncture last year.Statistically, however, they remain right on track. The AFC boasts a combined 65 wins through this point in 2026—identical to its total at this exact stage in 2025. Among the current top seven playoff seeds, the numbers mirror each other precisely as well: 43 combined wins for the conference’s current postseason field.

Houston faces four remaining games against opponents with superior records. At this time last year, that figure stood at five. That represents one fewer hurdle where the Texans can directly alter the postseason race by knocking off an established contender.

While the exact trajectory of the remainder of the season remains unwritten, expecting a repeat rescue via total collapses from the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs is a statistical long shot. Still, the path forward relies entirely on self-execution rather than outside charity.

Given the current playoff race mirrors last year’s the magic number to make the playoffs is 11. That means Houston has to go 8-1 to earn a Wild Card spot. With games against the Packers, Jags, and gritty Browns, there’s little room for error. The Texans schedule has eased up a bit with the Ravens, Commanders, and Eagles all struggling thus far.

2025 Houston Texans Remaining Schedule after Week 9

vs Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)
@ Tennessee Titans (1-8)
vs Buffalo Bills (6-2)
@ Indianapolis Colts (7-2)
@ Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
vs Arizona Cardinals
vs Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)
@ Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
vs Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

2026 Houston Texans Remaining Schedule after Week 9

@ Cleveland Browns (5-4)
vs Indianapolis Colts (2-6)
vs Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
@Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
@ Washington Commanders (2-5-1)
vs Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
@ Philadelphia Eagles (2-7)
@ Green Bay Packers (6-3)
vs Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Houston benefitted from playing almost an exclusive slate of AFC opponents down the stretch. Their wining streak helped bring them into the Wild Card race by defeating their rivals for those final few spots. The Texans playoff hopes aren’t in their hands. Just like last year, they need several teams to collapse to make way for their run. A Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team, a Steelers team who hasn’t faced much competition, and a young but unproven Browns team all are prospective teams to fall a part down the stretch. Even then, Houston would still be only eighth in the AFC. To make it to the playoffs for the fourth straight season, they’ll need to get hot at the right time. They’re warming up as we speak.