You might not have particularly noticed at the time, but first-base was something of an issue for the D-backs this year. In overall production by bWAR, the position came in at 2.2 wins below average, which
ranked Arizona 26th in the majors (as a yardstick, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen were 25th). Josh Naylor’s production at the plate, where he had a 122 OPS+ helped paper over things, but his defensive issues (which became apparent early) meant he was worth only 0.8 bWAR over 93 appearances. After he was dealt to the Mariners, it was a bit of a revolving door, with Pavin Smith, Tyler Locklear, Tim Tawa, Ildemaro Vargas and Tristin English all starting over the final third.
Locklear, in particular, appeared to be acquired from Seattle with the intention of him being a long-term replacement at first. His numbers after the trade were unimpressive: .175/.267/.262 for an OPS of only .529, with 43 K’s in 116 PA. Though it’s worth noting he is still only aged 24. But any chances of him making the Opening Day roster were derailed in an unfortunate incident, when he collided with Boston catcher Connor Wong. The led to Tyler going on the IL with elbow inflammation, but the eventual diagnosis was much worse. It was announced yesterday that he will undergo surgery for both elbow and shoulder issues, to repair a torn ligament and labrum.
His expected return date is unknown, in part because it’s an almost unprecedented combination. But it seems almost certain will not be ready for Opening Day. Locklear was not the only D-backs first-baseman to end the season on the IL. Smith became the only position player to finish 2025 on the 60-day IL, after he suffered a strained quad during a game late in August. Pavin is expected to be ready for spring training next year. But that still leaves a very large question-mark at the position. Let’s look at the potential candidates for Opening Day in Arizona, both inside and outside those currently with the organization.
Internal candidates
Pavin Smith – MLB .258/.362/.434 = .797 OPS
Online fandom is weird. The players they like aren’t necessarily the best, and the players they hate aren’t necessarily the worst. For whatever reason, Smith has become one of their scapegoats, despite posting a 120 OPS+ last season. Admittedly, like Naylor, defensive issues reduced his overall value to 0.4 bWAR, but given he cost only $1.5 million, the team had far bigger problems. A return to health permitting, I could see him being run out as a designated hitter against righties. But the fact he only saw 24 PA vs. LHP this year, tells you the team does not have a lot of faith in him as the everyday solution, at any position.
Tim Tawa – MLB .201/.274/.347 = .620 OPS, AAA .238/.359/.492 = .851 OPS
After Naylor, Smith and Locklear, Tawa saw next most time at 1B for the D-backs. But I think his profile fits rather better as an infield utility guy, and he has less experience than I would want at the position (still less than five hundred professional innings all told). He would probably be a more than acceptable stop-gap defensively – Tawa has only made one error playing first-base in his career – and if there was an everyday guy, Tim could give him the odd day off. But we would want someone who represents considerably more of a threat at the plate, given the position is typically a major source of offense.
Tristin English – MLB .091/.130/.136 = .267 OPS, AAA .325/.368/.514 = .882 OPS
English got to make an unexpected major-league debut just before the trade deadline, in the gap between the departure of Suarez and the arrival of Locklear. The latter led to the plug being rapidly yanked on English’s time, though going 2-for-22 with a K:BB ratio of 8:1 certainly didn’t help. It was a surprise to see him at all – before the season, Tristin didn’t even make Fangraphs’ list of Arizona prospects, and they went all the way down to fifty-three. It doesn’t help that English is already 28 – older than Jake McCarthy and two and a half years older than Geraldo Perdomo. He was DFA’d in late August and made it through waivers, another indication of his limited value.
Ivan Melendez – AAA .292/.347/.483 = .830 OPS, AA .258/.348/.480 = .827 OPS
It’s still to be decided whether the most fitting nickname for Melendez will be the Titanic Hispanic or the Hispanic Titanic. His stock is not as high as it was – the #8 prospect for Arizona according to MLB Pipeline before the 2024 season, he no longer even cracks their top thirty. Improving your OPS after being promoted to Triple-A may seem good on the surface, but it’s much less impressive after you take the hitter-friendly environment of Reno into account. He has done good work cutting back on his K-rate: from the monstrous 34.3% in 2023, to 30.1% last year, and 24.5% this season. I would expect to see him reach the majors in 2026: for how long remains to be decided.
External candidates
The team decided to move on from Christian Walker this year, and that proved a wise decision. He was barely better than replacement level (0.2 bWAR) for the Astros after signing a three-year, $60 million contract. The team instead went with Naylor, who was considerably more valuable after being dealt to the Mariners – mostly due to better defense there. All told, he was worth 3.1 bWAR, good value for his 2025 salary of just under $11 million. Given the limited appeal of the internal candidates, might the D-backs look to sign a free agent? At least to tide the organization over until Locklear is able to take the position back.
There will be some money to spend. Though how much depends on how far owner Ken Kendrick wants to push the boat out, after a team record payroll couldn’t get a winning record. But GM Mike Hazen appears inclined to look elsewhere: “Starting pitching is gonna be something we’re gonna need to focus on. That’s probably the number one area outside of building the bullpen again.” I strongly doubt the team will be in the market for the big free-agent name at the position: Pete Alonso. After him, Naylor is likely next best, but Seattle want to re-sign him, their GM saying, “He couldn’t be a better fit in every way on the field, in the clubhouse… We’ve loved having him so far, I hope he’s here a lot longer.”
A re-union with Paul Goldschmidt is something Webb_Gemz floated in the comments yesterday. However, Goldy’s numbers against right-handers have cratered the past two years: a .675 OPS in 2024, and even lower this year, at just .619. While there a million and one nostalgic reasons to want a re-union, it doesn’t make much baseball sense, unless he’s happy to be the weak side of a platoon (maybe with Pavin?). While on the topic of putting the band back together, a couple of other former Diamondbacks are also going to be on the market: Josh Bell and Wilmer Flores. Elsewhere, someone like Ty France might be a cheap option, or Ryan O’Hearn for some more money.
So, who do you think should play 1B for the team next year?
