It’s only Tuesday of Week 6, but there have already been two in-season trades by NFL teams. First, the Cincinnati Bengals traded for Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco. Later on in the day, the Baltimore Ravens traded edge rusher Odafe Oweh, who was on a fifth-year option with them, for former Los Angeles Chargers safety Alohi Gilman and a two-round bump in a pick swap.
Earlier today, ESPN’s Adam Schefter said on the radio that “each Monday and Tuesday until the trade deadline, we are likely
to see deals” made in the league. He couldn’t have been more right, getting ahead of Tuesday’s trades.
The trade deadline isn’t for another full month, but clubs are already trying to get their ducks in order for the long stretch of the season. Notably, the Browns and Ravens are both 1-4, which means those squads have about a 13 percent chance of making the postseason — per the NFL’s own simulations.
Teams might just be willing to part ways with players sooner, too, as they accept the fate of their season. Analytics can inform truths, even if they’re tough pills to swallow. The difference between two wins, a 10-7 record versus an 8-9 record, is a drop in playoff probability from 91 percent to just 11 percent. If you stumbled out of the gates in this league, it could be smart to just try to recoup draft value, as the Browns and Ravens did on players with expiring contracts.
So if the Green Bay Packers are looking to add some defensive tackle depth on their 53-man roster, they probably don’t want to wait until November 4th for the trade deadline. Players are always switching teams if they want in on the action. With eight teams in the league standing at 1-4 or 0-5, there should be a decent amount of sellers this year.
