Since ending a four-game losing streak on July 20 with a win over the Dallas Wings, the New York Liberty have won seven of their last eight games, including four in a row.
They’re now seven games over .500 and in seventh place in the standings, with a chance to quickly vault higher, especially if they earn a win in Indianapolis on Tuesday evening against the Indiana Fever, a team that’s in fourth place with a 20-12 record (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
So, is New York back? Back as a team no opponent wants
to see on the schedule, especially in a playoff series? Back to being considered a legitimate championship contender?
I’m not quite ready to confidently endorse New York.
The Dallas win was their only win over a playoff team during this eight-game stretch, as Sunday afternoon’s victory over a Las Vegas Aces team without A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray or Jackie Young does not count.
Considering the favorability of their schedule, New York’s metrics should probably be stronger.
Excluding Sunday’s 40-point demolition of the depleted Aces, which could skew the stats in an unrepresentative manner, New York has a 3.6 net rating since July 20, which is just the sixth-best mark in the league since that date. A 118.4 offensive rating slots them as fourth-best offensive in the league over that span, while a 114.8 defensive rating ranks 12th.
That’s a better offense but worse defense than New York’s season-long stats of a 112.1, and fourth-ranked, offensive rating and a 107.4, and 10th-ranked, defensive rating.
Their record is quantitively better, but, according to the underlying statistics, New York is not qualitatively better.
They’re still a team that tends to be too dependent on their offensive talents authoring excellent performances to pull out wins. The Liberty have enough offensive talent where that can happen more often than not, whether its Marine Johannès netting a career-high 27 points from off the bench, boosted by seven 3s, as she did on Sunday or Han Xu swishing pull-up jumpers or Sabrina Ionescu coming through in the clutch or Breanna Stewart working her way to the line for extra points or Jonquel Jones remembering that she is the Bahamian Beast.
When she returns from her foot injury, Leonie Fiebich will give New York another shooter, and if Satou Sabally is able to play again this season after dealing with another long-term concussion, she’ll introduce an even more dangerous offensive element into the New York lineup.
All that firepower, however, feels fragile, with the lack of cohesion, combined with the defensive questions, requiring New York, when things get particularly sticky, to turn to the “Stewie save us” strategy. She can do it, but that’s not a sustainable path for a deep playoff run.
Over their final 11 games of the 2026 season, the Liberty have the opportunity to demonstrate otherwise, showing an offensive resiliency, with enough defensive connectivity, to make a championship chase believable.
I feel similarly about their opponent on Tuesday. While Zack Ward posits that the Fever are championship material, I don’t see it, with my skepticism about their upside resembling the reasons I’m resistant to the Liberty.
As with New York, Indiana is going to have to find a way to muster enough defense. For the season, they rank seventh in defensive rating, just behind the Liberty with a 107.9 mark. Their offense, as Zack propounded, is the best in the league, sporting an offensive rating of 114.6 as they rack up 100-point games at a record rate.
So, it probably seems silly to think that end of the floor could prove troublesome.
But, what’s the end of game offensive hierarchy?
Maybe I’m overly indexing on their collapse against the Aces last week, but YOLO 3s and homerun passes, while tons of fun when they work, aren’t the kind of smart processes that will survive the the postseason crucible. And while others might debate which backcourt star should be the closer for Indiana, I’d like to see them involve Aliyah Boston more often, especially in late-game scenarios.
When Boston gets the ball at the top of the key or elbow and decides to back her way down to the basket, there are not many players in the league who can handle her. She has strength, size, skill and smarts, a combination that makes her dangerous and multifaceted crunch-time threat. Her methods might not have much aura, but they’re effective.
Will Indiana more intentionally prioritize AB? Or, will they live and die with triples from Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark?
As with New York, there’s a sense of fragility to Indiana’s firepower. Pouring in the points in low-leverage situations is a breeze. But, what about when the leverage heightens and the pressure rises?
Let me know what you think about the Liberty and the Fever in the comments. Are these teams contenders? If so, why? If not, what do you need to see from them before the season ends in order to have more confidence in their contention chances?
Tuesday night is the third of four matchups between the squads.
New York took the first game in a low-scoring affair in early June in Brooklyn, led by Stewie’s 30 points, 18 of which came from the free throw line. The second time around in Indy in mid-July, 33 points from Mitchell powered the Fever to the 20-point win. They’ll meet for the final time on Aug. 22, with New York hosting.
