Last night highlighted a weird trend for the Nationals offense. They struggle to come through in late and close situations. Don’t get it twisted, this is the best offense in all of baseball. They lead the league in runs, home runs and OPS. However, they also have no walkoffs all season and go quietly into the night much more than you would expect for an offense of this caliber.
We saw that yet again last night. It was a 3-2 game for a lot of the night. You would expect the best offense in baseball
to at least tie the game. However, that did not happen. The Blue Jays bullpen shut the door, with lights out closer Louis Varland striking out Luis Garcia Jr. to end the night.
First off, you do have to give credit to the Blue Jays bullpen, and the D-Backs bullpen which did something very similar on Friday. The back end of the Jays bullpen is very good. Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland are an electric trio, especially when Hoffman is on his game. Hoffman is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act, but he was electric last night. Meanwhile, Rogers and Varland have ERA’s of 1.51 and 1.02 respectively.
As a Nats fan, I am very jealous of that trio at the back of the bullpen. However, they are not the only group to shut down this Nats lineup late in a ballgame. The 8th and 9th inning are issues for the Nats. They have not been able to get enough offense going in those innings, and when they do, their bullpen blows the lead.
I wonder if the struggles of the bullpen in late innings are a factor in the offense being quiet. All these blown leads take a psychological toll on a team. At times, it feels like the offense is pressing in these late and close spots.
You can see it in the numbers as well. The Nats are great in low leverage and insane in medium leverage situations. However, in high leverage, the Nats have an 88 wRC+ as a team. That ranks 22nd in all of baseball. With runners in scoring position in general, the offense becomes closer to average than elite.
Obviously, the offense is not the primary problem with this team. Even with some of these warts, this is still an elite offense. Being able to blow teams away early and in the middle of games is a real strength. You do not tend to see teams above .500 with a pitching staff this bad.
However, the pitchers largely did their job last night, but the offense did not deliver. It can get a little frustrating at times to see such a great offense not come through in big spots. This whole game was just a massive missed opportunity. They let 42 year old Max Scherzer off the hook early in the game. Guys like Jose Tena and Dylan Crews fell into the veterans traps and got themselves out.
After the game got to 3-2 and the Nats bullpen kept it there, the offense really did not threaten much. They had some traffic in the last couple innings, but it came after two quick outs. Hoffman and Varland eventually buckled down and got the last out.
For a team with such a chaotic playstyle with an elite offense and bad pitching, you would think it would result in a ton of walkoffs. However, the Nats do not have a walkoff all season long. Frankly, that is a bizarre stat for any team, let alone a team with this kind of offense.
They got close a few times, most notably in a game against the Giants back in April where they had the bases loaded with nobody out in the bottom of the 10th. However, the offense started pressing and couldn’t get the job done. Nasim Nunez swung at ball 4 with the bases loaded, and the Nats ended up losing that game.
The Nats 13-14 record in one run games is not awful, but there have been some real missed opportunities. For the Nats to get to the playoffs, they will have to be carried by the offense. It is tough to ask for more from these guys, but the late game issues are a problem.
It is not the biggest problem with this team, not even close. However, it is something that has reared its head a lot this season. All I want is one walkoff. I feel like that would exorcise a lot of demons and move things in the right direction. For now though, this offense is elite but has a real achilles heel.
