If you are enough of a baseball fan to read this website, then you are probably aware of the craziness that has been the AL Central Race. Just in case you aren’t or for a quick refresher, it’s been wild. The Detroit Tigers have been in free fall this month; heading into Thursday’s game against the Guardians, they had a 5-15 record the month of September. The Guardians, meanwhile, had an 18-5 record in the month of September. The Guardians were 10.5 games back of the Tigers on September 1st, but headed
into Thursday’s game with a one game lead in the division.
It’s one of the more stunning comebacks/collapses that I’ve ever seen. The Tigers staunched the bleeding Thursday evening, winning the final game of the series 4-2 and moving to even in the division, but the Guardians hold the tiebreaker if the two teams end the year with the same record. The Guardians also have the easier opponent to end the season, finishing home against the Texas Rangers while the Tigers travel east to face the Boston Red Sox. I would be feeling pretty great right now if I was a Guardians fan, and only the mutual struggle of the Houston Astros has provided Tigers fans any sort of relief.
This is a Royals blog, however, and I’ve been viewing the race between the two teams through my lens as a Royals fan. Watching this remarkable change in standings has invoked two different feelings in me. First, I’m frustrated that it’s the Guardians who went on this run and not the Royals. The division or a spot in the Wild Card were there for the taking, and the Royals were not able to seize the moment. I am optimistic, however, about what this means for the Royals chances moving forward.
Let’s start with the negative. There was no juggernaut in the division this year, as the Tigers’ collapse has shown. Their 85-73 record makes sense given their run differential; how they got their is the crazy part. The Guardians, meanwhile, still have a negative run differential on the season, while the Royals have a slightly positive one. Neither of these teams is head and shoulders better than the Royals, and you can argue that the Royals are as talented as the team currently in first place.
The games on the field are what counts, and it looks like a lot of fun to be a Guardians fan right now, regardless of what it means for the future. We are all greedy as sports fans. It was wonderful watching the Royals back in the playoffs last year, and now I want it again. I know this is not realistic, but I want it every year. Seeing the Tigers and the Guardians at the top of the division and realizing it could be the Royals if they had some better sequencing or if they got even below average offense instead of some of the worst hitting in the league doesn’t feel good. The Royals had playoff potential this season and didn’t get it done.
Looking at the Guardians and the Tigers rosters, however, has me optimistic and hopeful for next year and excited to see how the Royals are able to improve their chances this offseason. The Guardians pitching staff has been on fire in September and Cleveland has shown that they can develop more pitchers. I would rather have the Royals staff next year, and I don’t think it’s just my Royals colored glasses making that decision for me. Tarik Skubal for the Tigers is the best pitcher on any team, but Cole Ragans has shown that he can reach similar heights as Skubal when he’s healthy. I’d also take the rest of the Royals pitchers over the Tigers pitchers as well.
Meanwhile, with apologies to the great Jose Ramirez, the Royals have the best position player in Bobby Witt Jr. Ramirez is also 33 years old and at some point is going to decline, although it certainly wasn’t this year. The Royals also have the position player with the third most fWAR among the two teams: Maikel Garcia. The Royals have a solid young core, some interesting young players and have shown a clear knack for getting the most out of their pitching under this regime. That puts them in as good a position as either the Tigers or the Guardians to compete for the AL Central next year. The Chicago White Sox don’t look ready yet and the Minnesota Twins are still smoldering in the ashes of their self immolation, so it’s likely that the two teams who the Royals competed with this year will be their competition next season.
I understand that the Royals budget may be tight this year and I don’t expect John Sherman to go out and support 200 million payrolls. Still, the Royals need to be able to add more offense this season, whether it’s signing someone or making a smart trade, or preferably both. If they had made different choices heading into this season, they might be the ones taking advantage of the Tigers collapse instead of the Guardians. The AL Central does not have a behemoth like the Los Angeles Dodgers leading the way. The good news is that the division will be there for the taking next year as well, and hopefully that fact (along with the team preferring some positive offseason news whenever we receive more information about the new stadium) drives the Royals players to keep improving this off season and drives the Royals front office to improve the overall talent level.
