When | 6:00 p.m. CT
Where | Rupp Arena; Lexington, Ky.
TV | ESPN2
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
Kenpom prediction | Kentucky -9
ESPN win probability | 20.2% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: Anthony Robinson II
(JR, 11.5 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 12.7 PPG)
F: Jacob Crews (GR, 13.9 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 16.9 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 7.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man:
Trent Pierce (JR, 6.7 PPG in 24-25)Kentucky
G: Otega Oweh (SR, 14.7 PPG)
G: Denzel Aberdeen (SR, 11.3 PPG)
G: Collin Chandler (SO, 8.8 PPG)
F: Mouhamed Dioubate (JR, 11.6 PPG)
C: Malachi Moreno (FR, 8.7 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jaland Lowe (SR, 9.0 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Kentucky: a new-look squad that has yet to live up to preseason expectations
Big Blue Nation entered the 2025-26 season with high hopes. The Wildcats were ranked ninth in the preseason AP top-25 poll after bringing in a top-five class in the transfer portal and a top-10 recruiting class. Kentucky returned just one starter from last season’s Sweet Sixteen team, Otega Oweh, but he was voted the SEC Preseason Player of the Year by the conference’s coaches.
To pair with Oweh, UK brought in All-ACC guard Jaland Lowe from Pitt after he averaged more than 16 points, five assists and four rebounds per game last season with the Panthers. The Wildcats’ second splash signing came in the form of center Jayden Quaintance, who was named to the All-Big 12 Freshman Team at Arizona State after being one of the most sought-after players in his class. Joining him out of the portal were Mouhamed Dioubate and Denzel Aberdeen, both solid role players on top-notch SEC squads last year in Alabama and Florida, respectively.
Kentucky also added mid-major up-transfers in guard Kam Williams from Tulane and forward Reece Potter from Miami (Ohio). Combined with a freshman class featuring five-stars Jasper Johnson and Malachi Moreno, plus the addition of Andrija Jelavic from Mega Superbet in the Adriatic League, the Wildcats had assembled an impressive amount of talent to try and replace the significant production lost from last year’s team.
Mark Pope’s second season at his alma mater hasn’t been a full-on disaster, but it hasn’t lived up to program’s (or the fanbase’s) exacting standards, either. UK enters Wednesday night’s matchup having fallen down the receiving votes category of the top-25 poll after spending the first five weeks of the season ranked. Kentucky faced a tough non-conference slate and left it with a few solid wins over St. John’s and Indiana, but failed to notch a signature victory.
The Wildcats dropped matchups to Michigan State, North Carolina, Gonzaga and rival Louisville during the non-conference schedule before opening up SEC play with an 89-74 loss at Alabama. Kentucky has not been the juggernaut many predicted it would be, but UK is still a quality squad looking to stack up wins after losing its conference opener. Paired with the Rupp Arena crowd, taking down the Wildcats will be a tall (but not impossible) task for Mizzou.
3 Keys to the Game
Win the battle of the boards
Rebounding hasn’t been MU’s strong suit this season, but the Tigers held their own against a Florida team known for its forwards on the way to an upset win. Kentucky has been out-rebounded in all but one of its losses this season, a 96-88 loss at Louisville, and the Wildcats took the rebounding margin by just two boards in that contest.
Controlling the boards has been one of the most reliable ways to beat UK this year, and Mizzou will hold the height advantage in Lexington. It will be crucial for the Tigers to make the most of it — win the rebounding battle, and they might take the game, too.
Force them to produce from the perimeter
Another consistent presence in Kentucky’s losses this season: struggles shooting from beyond the arc. The Wildcats rank 125th in Division I with 25.5 three-point shot attempts per game and hit 33.1 percent of those shots, which ranks outside the top-200. That number drops sharply in the team’s losses, when it’s shot just 23.8 percent from beyond the arc across five defeats.
UK has still (mostly) found success on offense, scoring more than 84 points a game, thanks to strong shooting from inside the arc. Kentucky has hit nearly 60 percent of its field goals on two-point attempts, making defense in the paint a likely swing point in the outcome Wednesday. Luckily for the Tigers, a focus on limiting offensive production at the rim has been a staple of their defensive strategy this season — though it’s come with a tradeoff, as our own Matthew Harris explained after MU’s loss to Illinois.
Trying to force the Illini to make a living from beyond the arc buried Mizzou in a blowout loss. But improved execution, the returns of Jayden Stone and Trent Pierce, and better luck with shooting variance could make the strategy far more effective against Kentucky.
Keep pace with Kentucky’s depth
UK’s depth has been one of its biggest assets this season. The Wildcats have 11 players who average at least 15 minutes of playing time, though Mark Pope concentrated his team’s minutes more in the SEC opener against the Crimson Tide. Kentucky still got 32 points from its bench in that game, just below its average of 33.7 bench points that ranks in the top-35 nationally.
The Tigers were vaunted for their depth earlier in the season before the injury to Stone and Jacob Crews’ move into the starting five. But Mizzou is arguably the deepest it’s been all year with the return of Stone and Pierce, and that renewed depth could also help the second unit regain some of its early-season effectiveness. MU doesn’t need to outscore the Wildcats’ reserves; it simply needs to keep the margin in bench points close enough to not sink its chances of an upset.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Kentucky 82 – Mizzou 76
I think this matchup lines up fairly well for Mizzou. The Wildcats have shown a limited ability to hit MU where it’s most vulnerable on defense, and the Tigers are coming off a win while UK is looking to recover from a double-digit loss. Long story short: this game has the potential for an upset.
But there’s a reason Kentucky is still the clear favorite. The Wildcats arguably have the edge in talent and depth over Mizzou, not to mention the area where they hold the most important upper hand: home-court advantage. MU has struggled on the road and on neutral courts this season, and a Rupp Arena crowd will likely hand Dennis Gates’ squad its most adverse environment of the year. Having Stone and Pierce back should make a major difference for this team, as we saw in its win over Florida, but I don’t think the difference will be large enough to lift the Tigers over UK.
