Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight talents Paddy Pimblett vs. Justin Gaethje will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Jan. 24, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 324.
Paddy Pimblett is the best example of a fighter being pushed by the UFC into title contention. “The Baddy” still had to do his part by continually improving and winning fights, but few would try to deny that he’s been given favorable matchups en route to his first shot at interim gold. At 31 years of age, Pimblett is undoubtedly
at his peak, making it something of a now-or-never moment for the Liverpool standout.
Speaking of now-or-never — this is Gaethje’s last opportunity. Both “The Highlight” and his coaches have admitted this is his moment to capture another interim title or take his ball and go home. He’s been going to war at a high-level for over a decade now, but his results inside the Octagon have proven that Gaethje is still near the top of his game.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Pimblett vs. Gaethje Betting Odds
- Paddy Pimblett victory: -225
- Paddy Pimblett via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Paddy Pimblett via submission: +145
- Paddy Pimblett via decision: +500
- Justin Gaethje victory: +190
- Justin Gaethje via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Justin Gaethje via submission: +2500
- Justin Gaethje via decision: +450
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Pimblett Wins
For a lot of years, Pimblett was a great grappler with decent wrestling, and in some ways, that description still fits. The difference — the change that brought Pimblett from random Cage Warriors champ who doesn’t make the Top 15 to genuine contender — is that Pimblett learned to take advantage of his height and size on the feet, making for a much more rounded and threatening athlete.
Is his kickboxing form still a bit wonky? Of course … but that didn’t stop Dricus du Plessis!
The goal for Pimblett in this matchup is to avoid a boxing match without getting his legs kicked to pieces at range. Ideally, Pimblett will enter the Octagon with a light lead leg, ready to check and deliver his own snappy kicks. Pimblett should be kicking often, both to impose his size and physicality as well as to bait the return. Gaethje has been taken down off caught kicks in the past, and that strategy feels like Pimblett’s best path to top position, which is his ultimate end goal.
When the two do get close enough to exchange, Pimblett should be exploiting Gaethje’s known weakness. His body is usually there to be hit, and he also struggles with strikes up the middle like knees and uppercuts. Clinching with Gaethje is a dangerous game, but Pimblett will have to play with fire a bit in order to make himself a serious threat on the feet and set up his takedowns.
How Gaethje Wins
Gaethje is one of the greatest action fighters of all time. He started as a relentless slugger with a nasty low kick, and those roots remain. He’s refined his footwork quite a bit over the years, however, allowing him the ability to dictate exchanges more effectively.
As much as I love love when Gaethje enters mauler mode, it’s in his best interest to remain patient here. All of Pimblett’s recent success against good opponents have come when they rush in on him. Chandler, Ferguson, and Green all tried to chase after the large grappler, and it worked for none of them as they ran into strikes and takedowns.
Gaethje doesn’t have to do that. He’ll have to be mindful of the takedown threat, but his low kicks are clearly the nastiest range tool between them. Better yet, he has the footwork to move laterally and pull Pimblett into exchanges. When Pimblett is the man leading, his poor boxing mechanics and raised chin become a lot more obvious, and there will be plenty of counter opportunities.
If Gaethje keeps his feet moving, he can reveal the holes in Pimblett’s standup while keeping the fight upright.
Gaethje vs. Pimblett Prediction
I do not like predicting this fight, because it’s very clearly a case of “better” vs. “prime.” Stylistically, this should be a layup for Gaethje. He’s the superior striker, more proven in brawls, and has never been grappled by anything less than the absolute best (Khabib and Charles Oliveira). Even with his improvements, Pimblett is fundamentally flawed in a way that men who defeat Gaethje are not.
Simultaneously, the momentum favors Pimblett in a massive way. His recent performances are the best of his career, and he obviously has the kind of incredible self-belief that produces world champions. Gaethje is fighting less often nowadays and isn’t in his prime — he’s a bit less durable and no longer consistently stopping opponents with his punches.
It’s hard to side against momentum, but in this case, I believe Gaethje still has enough left in the tank to score the upset. Frankly, beating Rafael Fiziev in 2025 is a better victory than anything on Pimblett’s resume. Generally, I just don’t think Pimblett is particularly good by elite Lightweight standards, and somebody will eventually demonstrate that reality.
Might as well be “The Highlight.”
