UFC Vegas 120 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Aug. 8, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, No. 8-ranked Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight contender, Mateusz Gamrot, collides with red-hot Australian prospect, Quillan Salkilld, in a classic “Prospect vs. Veteran” matchup.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in “Sin City” when the chaotic dust settles.
We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 120 betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Vegas 120 odds here).
Last week’s recap: And just like that, our four-week streak was snapped as Octagon newcomer, Vlasto Cepo, got super fraud checked and knocked out in 61 seconds (watch here).
Let’s keep rolling below:
On UFC Vegas 120’s “Prelims,” The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner, Juliana Miller, returns against Ravena Oliveira in a matchup that oddsmakers expect to be one-sided.
This week, I’m locking in: Miller to win and the fight to start Round 2 (-140).
Here’s Why:
This is one of those bets where the odds tell a pretty clear story.
Miller is sitting around a –320 favorite, and it’s kind of easy to understand the reason(s).
Oliveira has struggled mightily since arriving in UFC. She’s winless (0-3) inside the Octagon and has been finished in each of her last two appearances. Through three UFC fights, she simply hasn’t shown that she belongs with the level of competition the promotion is putting in front of her or in the promotion at all.
That said, I’m not taking Miller to get a quick finish.
Instead, I think the value lies in combining her victory with the fight reaching the second round.
Miller isn’t a flawless fighter herself. She’s just 2-3 in UFC, but what she lacks in polish she makes up for with grit. She’s one of those fighters who simply refuses to quit. Every time she walks into the cage, she fights for her money.
And after finally getting healthy again, this feels like a good opportunity for her to get back on track.
Stylistically, the matchup favors Miller’s best attribute: her grappling.
She’s at her most dangerous once the fight hits the mat, where she relentlessly hunts submissions and scrambles until opponents make mistakes. I expect Oliveira to have trouble dealing with that pressure as the fight progresses.
The reason I’m adding the “starts Round 2” leg is that Oliveira, despite her struggles, has shown she can survive the opening five minutes before things unravel. Her last two losses both came after the first round, making this prop much more appealing than a straight finish bet.
One other fun note: this week also marks the four-year anniversary of Miller winning TUF. Does that actually matter? Probably not. But, confidence and momentum are real things, and anniversaries like that never hurt.
What could go wrong?
The obvious concern is that Oliveira is simply overmatched and folds immediately, costing the “starts Round 2” portion of the wager. There’s also the possibility that Miller controls the fight on the ground for three rounds without finding a finish.
Still, given Oliveira’s recent history, Miller’s grappling advantage, and the likelihood that Oliveira survives at least the opening frame before fading, Miller to win and the fight to start Round 2 (-140) looks like one of the better values on UFC Vegas 120’s card.
- Juliana Miller via KO/TKO/DQ: +800
- Juliana Miller via submission: +135
- Juliana Miller via decision: +200
- Ravena Oliveira via KO/TKO/DQ: +425
- Ravena Oliveira via submission: +3000
- Ravena Oliveira via decision: +650
