It’s time to admit that I was too low on Olivia Miles.
She is miles ahead of where I thought she would be, not just as a rookie but at any point in her WNBA career.
The playmaking
vision was not in question; however, I was skeptical whether she had the athleticism to hang defensively, and I also did not totally trust her improved 3-point shot.
But in fixating on her possible weaknesses, I failed to appreciated her real strengths, namely how the her passing and driving could be enhanced by a more spaced out WNBA. Plus, I underestimated her athletic pop, which not only has boosted her offensive impact, but also has allowed her to be a functional part of a good defense.
Of course, it does help that Miles was blessed to be drafted by a team with superb schemes, systems and culture. Even accounting for the absence of Napheesa Collier, the 2026 Minnesota Lynx are far superior to the average team selecting No. 2 overall in a WNBA draft.
Still, it’s not all Cheryl Reeve magic that has made Miles a rookie revelation.
Miles in Minnesota has proved the perfect match, with the player and team instantly establishing a symbiotic relationship where Miles’ talents elevate Minnesota and Minnesota’a talents—from Reeve to a core of veteran players with complementary skillsets—elevate Miles, something that the precocious rook recognizes and appreciates.
The advanced stats demonstrate as much.
The Lynx lead the league in offensive (114.1), defensive (98.0) and, thus, net rating (16.1), with all those numbers being even better in Miles’ minutes. Among high-minute players across the league, the 20.3 net rating that Minnesota posts in Miles’ minutes trails only the 22.1 compiled by Natasha Howard, confirming the correlation between Miles’ performance and her favorable context.
That connection is also evident in the data from ESPN Analytics. The Lynx sport a league-best +13.3 average net points, a number earned through their excellent ability to generate 2-point scoring in the offensive halfcourt. Minnesota’s +7.5 net points on halfcourt 2-pointers is more than double that of any other team. That’s an advantage attributable to Miles, who, individually leads both ESPN Analytics’ net points (82) and net points per 80 possessions (9.1) metrics. Howard also rates in the top five in both calculations.
Help the Helper’s wRAPM metric, which attempts to adjust more rigorously for teammate and opponent context, is the rare advanced statistic that does not feature Miles at or near the very top of the leaderboard.
Miles’ +0.5 wRAPM estimate is top-50 across the league, and the fourth-best among Minnesota’s rotational players. Howard leads at +3.4, with Kayla McBride graded at +2.8 and Courtney Williams at +2.0. This divergent assessment of Miles shouldn’t discredit her, nor the other stats that assign her more impact. Rather, wRAPM provides a perspective of how much Miles’ veteran teammates are helping her succeed.
And regardless of which flavor of advanced stats you prefer, it’s all good if you’re a Lynx fan. Miles was the no-brainer WNBA Rookie of the Month for May who already has a Western Conference Player of the Week award on her resume, and Minnesota is perched at the top of the league.
The one offensive question mark for Miles—and the one thing I might (or might not) have been right about—is her 3-point shooting.
In the month of May, she was a frigid 11.1 percent from 3 across eight games. That she still was incredibly impactful and productive is a testament to the multiplicity of her offensive game. Since the calendar turned to June, however, Miles can barely miss from deep. While upping her 3-point attempts from 2.3 per game to 4.6, she’s drilling almost 61 percent of her triples.
Obviously, both of those two extremes are unsustainable. Currently, the wild swings have her settled as a 39 percent 3-point shooter, which seems like a reasonable, high-end outcome for her 3-point shooting potential.
Interestingly, the team against which Miles’ 3-point shooting switch flipped is Minnesota’s opponent on Friday night: the Golden State Valkyries (10 p.m. ET, ION).
Head coach Natalie Nakase often devises defensive schemes to slow down an opponent’s offensive engine. Against the Lynx on on June 4, that plan involved daring Miles to make 3s. The rookie accepted the challenge and left the Valkyries with regret, establishing a new WNBA rookie record as she cashed in on eight of her 11 3-point attempts on her way to her then season-high of 28 points.
Prior to that game, Miles had made just two 3-pointers.
So, expect Nakase and Golden State to throw a different look at Miles and Minnesota on Friday night. The second-best defense in the league with a pair of All-Defensive talents in Veronica Burton and Gabby Williams, the Valkyries have the personnel to potentially pose some challenges for the rookie.
Yet, it also will not be surprising when she solves them, something Reeve emphasized after her most recent explosion—a new career high of 31 points, primarily powered by a 12-for-15 performance on 2-pointers—against the Los Angeles Sparks.
On Friday night in San Francisco, will Olivia author another outstanding performance as the Lynx extend another win streak with a third-straight victory? Will it be more 3s? Oodles of assists? Her first WNBA triple-double?
Of, can the Valkyries corral Miles, temporarily stalling the rook’s rise as they capture a fifth-consecutive win?
Let us know what you expect to unfold between two of the West’s best, as well as what else you’ll be watching for around the league.
