It has been better since a disastrous April, but Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell in the back of the rotation is not ideal. Both have ERA’s well over 5 for the season, and are just way too hittable. The pair have allowed a combined 45 home runs. After the trade deadline, I would like to see some new blood, specifically Jackson Kent.
Kent is one of the Nats most underrated prospects, and has the ability to be a number 4 starter for a long time. His combination of solid stuff, deception and control allows
him to rack up the strikeouts in the minor leagues. Between AA and AAA, Kent has 90 strikeouts in 78.2 innings with a 3.78 ERA and 3.67 FIP.
He had a great outing the other day, allowing just one run and striking out 8 in five innings. Kent has had a very interesting season, especially in AAA. Since being promoted to Rochester, Kent has a mediocre 4.69 ERA, but his FIP sits at just 3.93 and his xERA is 3.31.
The thing with Kent is that most of his outings are stellar. He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his 10 AAA starts, allowing one earned run or less in 6 of them. However, in the other three starts he allowed 7,6 and 5 earned runs. Blowup starts have been a problem for Kent in his career, and that will be one thing he has to solve if he wants to reach his full ceiling.
A reason for those blowup starts in my opinion is that Kent’s stuff is good, not great. He has to be pretty pinpoint with his command. To his credit, he usually is, but when he is not, things can spiral on him. His stuff is better than the likes of Mikolas and Littell though, with a 93-95 MPH heater from the left side to go with a nasty changeup and a pair of usable breaking balls.
In some ways, Kent reminds me of Jake Bennett, who the Nats traded this offseason and is now flourishing with the Red Sox. Both are left handers with big extension down the mound, good command and average stuff that plays up. Bennett’s game is more about soft contact, while Kent’s relies more on swing and miss. However, the two have a lot of similarities, and Kent could also have big league success like Bennett.
When August rolls around, I would love to see Kent get his shot. Despite an ERA that is not super impressive, all the underlying numbers suggest Kent is ready. He actually does a solid job of limiting hard contact for the most part, though when he does allow it, home runs come fairly often.
One stat evaluators look at a lot is K-BB%. It is a simple stat that is just your strikeout percentage minus your walk rate. Kent has always been great in that stat. This season he has a 28.4% K rate and just a 7.3% BB rate, which is a 21.1 K-BB%. That is higher than a lot of pitchers’ strikeout rates.
Kent is an interesting watch on the mound. A former high school football player, Kent is built like a linebacker. His delivery has a lot of flying arms and legs, but he manages to repeat it very well. Kent’s best pitch is his changeup, which does not pop on stuff models but plays super well off his fastball. That is his put away pitch, especially to right handed hitters.
This season Kent has seen his velocity go from the low-90’s to the mid-90’s, which has really helped him out. The increased juice on his heater has helped make the changeup even more deadly. In AAA, the changeup has a whiff rate of 42.9%.
Overall, this is just a way more interesting profile than a Mikolas or Littell. Kent has a chance to be a solid big league starter for a long time. Drafted in 2024, Kent is still a youngster at just 23 years of age. He does not have the flashy velocity of a Susana or Sykora, but if you can command the ball, you don’t need that, especially as a lefty.
When Kent gets to the big leagues, I could see them making some tweaks with him. The most obvious thing would be to throw a sinker to left handed hitters. Another thing could just be to work on his mental game to help avoid those blowup starts. He does not get a ton of headlines, but Jackson Kent has the ingredients to be a solid big league starter for a long time. I think the Nats should give him a shot sooner rather than later, ideally after the trade deadline.
