When Zac Gallen declined the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer on November 18, it seemed like the end of his time in Arizona. It had been a good run, covering seven seasons and likely peaking in 2023, when
he was an All-Star, came third in Cy Young voting and was a major factor in the team winning their first National League pennant since 2001. But at the age of thirty, it was time for Gallen to cash in. He had earned around $30 million in his career, but far bigger bucks were possible. MLB Trade Rumors had Gallen as the #15 free agent this winter (#6 among starting pitchers), and predicted a four year, $80 million contract.
But more than two months after Gallen formally became a free agent, he still has yet to find a new employer. There have been rumors of course. As well as “Bob” Nightengale’s statement in early December, “The Chicago Cubs are close to finalizing an agreement with free-agent starter Zac Gallen on a multi-year deal that will pay him an average of $22 million a year.” This came as a surprise to everyone, not least the Chicago Cubs. But the bottom line is, with little more than a fortnight before pitchers and catchers report, Gallen is unsigned. This would normally be of interest to us, solely because of the draft pick Arizona gets due to the qualifying offer.
But then, Jim Bowden of The Athletic, wrote about the remaining free agents, and had this to say about Gallen. “The Diamondbacks would love to get him back and are considered the front-runners to re-sign him.” Wait, what? Not just in the mix. “Considered the front-runners”. This is almost Dan Bickley, “It’s a matter of time before they get Alex Bregman” levels of confidence. He does point out that Arizona, as his original team, wouldn’t have to give up a draft pick to do it. Though counterpoint: if anyone else signs him, we get an additional pick (slot depending on contract size). So the D-backs would still be “losing” a draft pick if they sign Gallen themselves.
The bigger question is more likely one of cost. The qualifying offer Gallen turned down was a one-year contract at fractionally over $22 million. Thereafter, the team pivoted to bringing back Merrill Kelly at roughly the same cost, and also added Michael Soroka to the rotation. If Gallen had accepted the offer, I highly doubt the team would have proceeded down the Kelly route. Indeed, it’s quite possible that if the D-backs thought Gallen would accept the QO, they simply would not have made one, and just let him walk instead. Do they still have the cash to bring Gallen back? If we accept what the team has publicly said, it’s a “No.”
According to Fangraphs Roster Resource page, the D-backs have a $172 million payroll for this year, compared to final payroll last season of $188 million. The expectation is that the team will be looking to cut payroll in 2026, and there are still other holes on the roster to fill. First base, left field and the bullpen are all areas where the team could use help, and that won’t come free. Unless Gallen takes a very friendly team contract, there simply does not appear to be the funds available. However, it is true that Ken Kendrick has surprised us all before, unexpectedly finding the money for starting pitchers, from Zack Greinke to Corbin Burnes.
Assume for a moment, Gallen accepts a one-year deal. This could help rebuild his value after an underwhelming 2025 campaign, where his 4.83 ERA ranked 45th among the 52 qualifying pitchers. Complicating matters further, Arizona already have five starting pitchers: Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Soroka. Adding Gallen would bump one of those out of a spot. Kelly, ERod and Soroka are too well-paid to go to long relief, and Nelson was just too good. Even Pfaadt, whose ERA ranked 48th of the 52 last season, has a long-term extension which kicks in this year. He will earn $3.4 million in 2026, fairly pricey for a long reliever.
Another question: how good will Gallen be in 2026? As noted above, he wasn’t that good in 2025, being worth just over one win (1.1 bWAR and fWAR). The projection systems all have him down for a rebound this year, expecting him to be worth between 2.0 and 2.8 fWAR, with around a 4.20 ERA. But I’m less certain, after three consecutive years where Zac’s production has declined, while both his ERA and FIP went in the wrong direction. There was some signs of hope down the stretch, with a 3.32 ERA in August and September. But his K-rate was down too, and the FIP over that time was still almost at four.
All told, I’m hard-pushed to see Gallen coming back to Arizona. It feels like the team has moved on, and – a little like the situation with regard to Paul Goldschmidt – there is just too big a gap between what the player wants, and what the Diamondbacks are prepared to offer.
