Before Game 1, I chatted with Dave, my friend who runs PtR’s sister site that covers the Portland Trail Blazers, Blazers Edge. After Game 2, we agreed to pick it back up as the series shifts to the Pacific Northwest.
Dave
Well, the series is 1-1 and nothing is decided firmly, but the most important thing is Wemby and the concussion. Are you worried? Does it seem like Wembanyama is just a wee bit injury-prone at this point?
J.R.
I’ve decided that I won’t be worried until Game 7 and Wemby isn’t playing.
I know it’s assuming a lot, jumping ahead five games but I don’t want to consider the team not being able to hang with Portland without the Alien. Still, since it’s best not to take too much for granted, I’ll amend my official stance to the following: I will not worry until it’s an elimination game and Wemby isn’t playing
As to him being injury prone, I’m not feeling it. He played 71 games his rookie year. He’s had his share of minor injuries, but sprained ankles happen to everyone and none of his have recurred. The big game-stealer was last year’s DVT which can come in a repeating version or a plain vanilla freak medical event style. And everything we know points to his being the latter. This season, the big challenge to him playing 65 games was a calf strain that happened when Podz went full Cobra Kai and swept Victor’s leg. The recovery took its own sweet time, but that was because after all of the Achilles tears last season, perhaps the most important medical term for franchises to pay attention to is “calf strain.”
To summarize: I see a string of both normal and unusual situations that only have a single thing in common – that they all happened to the same guy. That’s not my definition of being injury prone.
So, as to Game 2, I saw a lot of awesome things happen for your team and a serious percentage of them had a double zero attached to them! Do you think coming through in the crucible of the playoffs is exciting for Henderson’s long-term outlook, or have the last three seasons already given you enough of a read on what he’s going to become?
Dave
Game 2 was good for Scoot’s personal brand and hopefully his confidence. He’s played 160 NBA games in his career now. That was his best all-around one. It showed the progress he’s made defensively. His three-point shot opened up drives. Scoot can be deadly with a head of steam and a little space off the dribble. It was all the best of Mr. Henderson, wrapped up in 38 minutes of fun.
Anyone who tries to get a read on Scoot’s future based on that game is either a totally optimistic Blazers fan or hasn’t watched him or the team much this year. Portland’s performances are repeatable, but never for long. They’ll sustain for 3-4 games, then flip to the polar opposite of what they were. It doesn’t even depend on the opponent that much. Sure, they did better towards the end of the season in a weaker schedule than they did in the middle months when it was brutal, but they’ve beaten some great teams and lost to some lousy ones inexplicably. Trying to analyze the Blazers is just like going to church. First comes the reading, then comes the prayer. And who knows whether it’ll be answered this week or not?
We shouldn’t minimize the progress Scoot has made. This version of him is impactful. Even the down parts are NBA-worthy (mostly). That’s way better than his rookie season. But you can flip a coin whether this is the start of something new or just an anomaly that shows his ceiling without being able to sustain it.
Well, we have an update on Wemby now. He traveled to Portland and has been listed as questionable. Are they really thinking about playing him? What are the chances that this is a little bit of gamesmanship on the Spurs’ part? If it were my franchise cornerstone against an opponent as beatable as Portland, I think I’d give it another game at least.
J.R.
First, I think it’s wise, whenever you’re dealing with a franchise that has an ex-spy like Gregg Popovich who’s had a hand in creating a culture that prioritizes winning above all things, including dealing with the media and filing injury reports (anybody remember Duncan’s DNP-Old?), to expect at least a modicum of gamesmanship and often quite a bit more.
Second, I think there’s practically zero chance that Wemby is on the court for Game 3. San Antonio‘s process for returning a player from a serious injury does not include playing someone that they list as questionable. It goes from being unavailable, to being questionable for several games, to being probable for a night or two, and then playing. There are a lot of stages to it and it’s very predictable. The only question is whether they consider this to be a serious injury. And, I mean, it’s the franchise player’s freaking brain. That’s serious. Even Vic traveling with the team, I’d say I give it less than 50% chance of playing in Game 4.
Now, what do you think about the way the Blazers turned the tables and overcame that double digit lead in the fourth? I liked the intensity of the defense, and the Spurs were certainly not prepared to attack in a way that surprised Portland. How regularly do you think they’ll be able to match that effort?
Dave
Honestly, I read the Spurs as overconfident after building up that double-digit lead. Yes, Portland’s defense was good. They can do that. But does anybody recall the Blazers basically letting you guys score on the break in the third period and/or early fourth because they couldn’t be bothered to take care of the ball or get back on defense? Both sides of that coin are very Portland in 2025-26. I think San Antonio smelled the win, thought they had it, then got disabused of that notion as the Blazers made one of their famous, death-defying runs. By the time y’all got your act together, the game was there for the taking.
There’s a huge difference between that scenario and playing 48 minutes of high-focus, pristinely-executed basketball. I’m not sure the Blazers can pull that off. And if they don’t, the Spurs will be right there, either even or building another 12-14 point lead.
You still have the deeper talent pool–I hear the Spurs were kicked out of community game night for getting a BINGO after three balls were drawn–and you have the advantage of having played together the whole season. The Blazers team you’re seeing right now is basically five weeks old, at best. I think this is the first time all year the injury list reads, “Damian Lillard” and nothing else. I’m not joking about that. Portland’s starting lineup is still in the talking stage. Their bench players are basically trying to speed date the first unit. More overall talent and more continuity for San Antonio will probably be the bane of any attempt by the Blazers to put together a superior complete game.
The Blazers could win two games if Wemby doesn’t play significant minutes. The Blazers could win one under any circumstances. I think the most likely outcome, factoring in injuries, is a 1-1 split over the weekend. The next most likely outcome is probably Spurs 2-0. Blazers 2-0 registers but it’s in third place on the odds table.
What’s your prediction for the outcome of the next two games?
J.R.
I predict Wemby plays neither game, but takes up space and churns all kinds of rumors with his presence alone. Whether that steals cycles from Portland’s coaching staff you’ll know better than I, but I’m preparing for the worst – coming home potentially down 3-1. Now that might not be the most probable outcome, but the Wemby-less Spurs haven’t proven that they can beat this version of the Blazers that’s reinventing themselves on the fly. Until they do, the series is up in the air.
You say you expect 1-1 over the weekend and for me that’s a win, because it contains at least one win! This year, the Spurs have had their struggles in late-game situations against a defense that’s dug in and prepared for them. Early in the season, the team had a ton of success in clutch situations, but since February when they started blowing teams out and went 23-2 with Wemby playing, they rarely played close down the stretch but didn’t look great when they did. I’m concerned about how they generate offense in the last two minutes of a tight game on the road.
Bottom line, these two teams playing without Victor seems pretty evenly matched, but I’d feel much better if you told me that it’d be 1-1 after two blowouts than I would be expecting that result if we get two close games. Hate to say it, but it’s true.
