The narratives, they continue. The Cubs pick up two wins over the weekend and it’s more of what we saw before the break. The Cubs scored six and 10 in their two wins and two in their loss. This team wins by bludgeoning their opponents. Cub pitching allowed eight runs across three games. With a hat tip to some suspect Twins baserunning on Saturday, the Cubs pitching performed pretty well in this series and the offense scored 18 runs across the three games. So this was a really nice, really comfortable
series win. I’ll note that on paper, despite the home field advantage for the series, it looked like the Twins might have the edge on paper in two of the three games.
Let’s hit the quick perspective check. Just three teams have more wins than the Cubs do and one team has as many wins. At this time, the Cubs have outright possession of the first Wild Card spot. They are on pace for 91.6 wins. So we’re getting to that spot where winning or losing a game isn’t making a full game swing in the expected win total. I might look at 2.5 games on either side and say it is again looking fairly comfortable that the Cubs win 89-94 wins. Fangraphs has it at 88. Before Sunday’s game, Baseball Reference also had it at 88. I’m taking the over.
The Cubs scored runs in each of the first four innings Sunday, totaling 10 runs before coasting to a win. On the other side, Shōta Imanaga looked excellent again. He gave the Cubs seven scoreless innings, allowing six hits and a walk. That’s just an outstanding performance. It is fun to watch when both sides of the ball are clicking. About the only thing that wasn’t in top shape was Ryan Dempster who flubbed a good handful of things he was trying to say during the game. Since I mention him, I’ll say how much I think Demp has improved through the years. He was so in love for so long with his Will Ferrell doing Harry Carry schtick for so long that it got grating. But he’s grown on me. I think I probably like the regular duo (trio with T-Mac) more than many of you do. But I thought Alex Cohen and Demp were quite good on Sunday and I enjoyed the telecast.
The Cubs posted 12 hits, three of them doubles, one of them a triple, one a homer. They drew six walks. They applied pressure all day long. They worked a lot of long counts and generally made this a tough day for Twins pitching. They got contributions up and down the lineup. If you can readily call to mind a game where the team looked better than this one, I hat tip to you. I guess the 23-3 game with the eight homers, but that one got super silly with multiple innings of position player pitching.
For what it’s worth, I looked at the Fangraphs Cub schedule where you can see their probability of winning estimates past, present and future. They did have the Cubs favored in all three of these games and I guess I’m surprised at how little they think of the Twins. Looking forward, they have the first game with Detroit as a coin toss and the Cubs favored in the other two. They do not love the Cubs on the road at Pittsburgh and St. Louis though.
If you haven’t looked ahead at the calendar, here’s a heads up. The Cubs have an off day after the Tigers series. After that series, the Cubs start a very long and difficult stretch. Starting July 24 in Pittsburgh, the Cubs are scheduled for 17 straight games. Three at Pittsburgh, four at St. Louis, three home against the Yankees, three home against the Dodgers, make-up game against the Blue Jays, three games at the Royals. They update percentages over time, but Fangraphs has the Cubs favored in just 5 of 16 games (with the last game not being listed yet). So this is a brutal stretch and very important to the ultimate placement of the Cubs. If they can stay close through that stretch, they’ll have seven games left with the Brewers, with hopefully the healthiest team they’ve had in 2026.
Despite whatever doubts or concerns you might have about this team, they’ve survived and even thrived through just about everything. This is a very good team and they are almost certainly headed back to the playoffs. Enjoy the ride.
Three Positives plus Pete:
- Alex Bregman, two hits, one a two-run homer to open the scoring, a walk, two runs scored. Line is up to .239/.336/.362 (wRC+ 98). Progress.
- Imanaga’s seven scoreless innings.
- Seiya Suzuki still flaming hot. Double, two walks, two runs scored.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong. A double and a run scored. The Twins did a really nice job, slowing him down more than anyone has in a while.
Game 99, July 19: Cubs 10, Twins 1 (56-43)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.192). 2-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Hero: Shōta Imanaga (.156) . 7 IP, 26 BF, 6 H, BB, 0 R, 4 K (W 6-8)
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.066). 2-5, 3B, 4 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.030). 1-4, 2B, R
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.018). 0-4
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.012). 3-5, RBI, 2 R
WPA Notes: Really tough crowd for Busch who had a very strong day at the plate. Busch grounded out in the first with a runner on second and one out (-.030). It was 3-0 before he batted again. Only three Cub hitters accumulated even nominal negative WPA. 21 plays scored .000 WPA.
WPA Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s two-run homer with two outs in the first. (.175)
Twins Play of the Game: Brooks Lee led off the third with a single, the Twins down three. (.036)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 98 Winner: Matthew Boyd 37 of 66 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +18
- Michael Busch +16
- Carson Kelly +15.5
- Ben Brown/Alex Bregman +13.5
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Nico Hoerner -11
- Caleb Thielbar -14
- Dansby Swanson -16
Up Next: The Detroit Tigers (46-53) come to town. They won two of three against the Angels in Anaheim over the weekend. They only allowed four runs over the three game series. The Tigers won six of eight before the break, so at eight of 11, they are trying to get into the periphery of the race in a weak league and division.
The pitching matchup features two pitchers who were once top line starters who father time hasn’t been particularly kind to in recent years. Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.19) returns to the Cubs. His last start was June 7 and he was in a tail spin then. He was 0-4 with a 6.00 (33 IP) over his last seven leading up to the injury. Jack Flaherty (3-8, 4.48) is only 30, so it’s hard to imagine he’s washed up. And so it’s not surprising that he’s 3-2 with a 2.55 over his last seven (35.1 IP). In his last two starts he’s beaten the Phillies and Rangers.
Another tough one on paper. The Tigers bullpen has the seventh most losses, but does check in with the 11th best ERA. They are 17th in WHIP (right behind the Cubs), 17th in K/9 (ahead of the Cubs), 14th in BB/9 (a little behind the Cubs). So they are a pretty middle of the road pen.
