When a team starts 1-5, which more often than not means its season is already over, it’s common and reasonable to speculate on what changes will happen to set up for better success the next year.
The Buccaneers are, for the first time in a long time, being speculated as sellers at the upcoming Nov. 10 trade deadline because of their situation. Historically, that is not something Tampa has entertained, and while it could change before then, fans shouldn’t expect them to deviate from that approach for a few
reasons.
Playoffs!? You’re Talking About Playoffs??
Statistically, there is a 1.1% chance of the Buccaneers making the playoffs. Only four teams have done it in modern history, with the 2020 Washington Football Team being the latest to accomplish the feat at 7-9 (you might remember them and who they happened to play).
So yeah, chances are currently quite dire, but the Bucs get a tiny bump from the fact they still play in the NFC South. The division is often the butt of many jokes, and this season hasn’t done much to dissuade them — only the Panthers have a winning record at 3-2, and two of their wins come courtesy of a devastated Eagles team and a not-so-good Falcons team.
That said, the next two games against Carolina and Atlanta are basically must-win to stay alive. If they do that, their chances at 3-5 with two division wins bump them up to 19% per the New York Times playoff simulator. It’s slight, but it’s a chance. The Buccaneers’ strength of schedule gets significantly easier in the second half of the year as well, currently ranking at 31st overall. For a team that hasn’t lost a game by more than one score all year, that is something to consider.
For an embattled head coach hanging on by a thread, all those factors combined would keep eyes fully focused on the rest of this campaign.
Many Bucs’ Contracts Are Not Trade-Friendly
Plenty of fans have speculated that the Bucs could sell their high-priced, recognized franchise faces like Vita Vea (who was just extended) and Chris Godwin to net some significant draft capital.
There is a big problem with that — it makes little financial sense to do so.
Trading Godwin would save $15 million this season but accelerate $16 million in dead cap onto next year’s books. And currently, it’s hard to know just how valuable he still is.
He’s having a career-worst start to a season, failing to net 50 yards or more in any contest so far. He still looks capable based on the eye test, but terrible quarterback play and a flawed scheme have deeply hindered him and the other Bucs’ receivers. His lack of production might make other teams hesitant to part with much, and at that point is it worth trading a franchise cornerstone and team leader for a late Day 3 pick?
For Vea, he is not playing well (just a 55.8 Pro Football Focus grade with only 9 pressures and no sacks) and he just got paid out a $21 million bonus, which is killer in terms of both real cash flow and cap implications. Unless some team really wants to pay a premium, like a third-round pick, for what he has done and not what he’s currently doing, it doesn’t feel like he’s going anywhere.
Antoine Winfield Jr. has also been floated around, which makes the least sense because he also has a massive dead cap hit ($20 million) and he’s actually still good. The splash plays haven’t been as frequent, but he’s also not been put in positions to really do that — Todd Bowles has him operating as the ultimate leak stopper, which is an important but unglamorous job.
More likely trade candidates, if any, would be names like running back Kenny Gainwell, defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson, and edge rusher Yaya Diaby.
Gainwell and Robinson are on cheap deals with a good history of production, and Diaby is on an expiring rookie contract in a season where he’s taken a step back rushing the passer. Diaby has 18 sacks in three seasons and is a steady presence in run defense — absolutely a useful player — but will he be worth a larger contract when the Bucs might be rebuilding / retooling and they’re currently getting a huge breakout from David Walker?
The Bucs Are Loyal and Stubborn…To A Fault
Most people know this already but the Bucs really trust their guys across the spectrum. From the roster all the way up the front office, Tampa places faith in its people and gives them room to operate.
Despite general manager Jason Licht engineering a largely failing strategy between 2014 and 2019, the Glazers stuck with him and got rewarded in a massive way — Bruce Arians at head coach, Tom Brady at quarterback, one of the best rosters in the league, and a Super Bowl trophy. He’s earned a strong reputation as one of the strongest talent evaluators and drafters in the league since then, as the Bucs consistently rank as one of the best franchises in terms of rostering and keeping homegrown talent.
While that’s generally a good trait to have, like anything it can be a double-edged sword, which the Bucs are being fully sliced by right now.
Prominently, Todd Bowles should’ve been fired after last season. He’s underperformed at his job relative to the roster’s talent level for multiple years, most prominently last season when the Bucs started 6-2 and then collapsed to the tune of an 8-9 season and its first playoff-less season since 2019. Bowles has overseen a stretch of 1-5 or worse in all five seasons as head coach. He’s been slow to adapt to trends, is too hesitant to make bold decisions in regards to roster management and in-game decisions, and is way too loyal to some of his “guys.”
And as good as Licht has been, he has enabled Bowles and the coaching staff. Why is Alex Anzalone still playing when he’s one of the worst linebackers in football? Why isn’t David Walker playing more despite he’s producing at an elite clip on limited snaps? These are just a couple questions THIS YEAR, as you could easily go back to several very questionable decisions throughout the years.
No general manager wants to undermine his head coach, and Licht is one of the best at not doing that. In fact, he’s done everything he can to supply Bowles with players who optimally fit his scheme, but sometimes you need to have the gumption to put your foot down and make roster decisions for the benefit of the whole team. Licht has not done that in recent times.
They might’ve also made some massive missteps when it comes to committing to their “guys.”
Baker Mayfield has largely been a net positive for this team, but since midway through 2025, he’s been a huge negative on the field. In what would’ve been a contract year for him, Mayfield spent the off-season talking a big game about his slighted feelings and carrying a Cleveland-sized chip on his shoulder. Well he got his big-money extension right before the dawn of the season despite not earning it on his most recent performances, and that’s looking like a critical error unless he hugely turns it around.
We already discussed Vea’s contract and performance, that’s another example of a disgruntled player who might’ve been better left alone.
And at the heart of it, this all feels stemmed from the Glazers and their hesitance to make big changes and feel content with the team skating by in a weak division year after year.
They should’ve fired Bowles this offseason despite handing him extension, but they decided to give him one more shot to re-configure the coaching staff and his approach. Yet at the same time, they refused to commit major off-season resources to bolstering devastating weak spots on the roster, instead opting for bargain bin finds like Anzalone.
Well, 1-5 speaks for itself.
And we’ve arrived at the conclusion.
The Bucs have done well this decade to win and building a competent roster, but how boldly they decide to act in the next 6 months will determine if they can bounce back quickly to maintain that relevancy or if we’re headed for another dark age.
At present, it feels likely we’ll be waiting for January to see that answer begin to materialize. They’ve committed to seeing this season through with this coaching staff and this roster, and it feels unlikely that will change based on both historical precedent, real-life financials, and what we know about the team’s philosophy.
The focus will remain on week-to-week results, whether fans like it or not.
