Indiana hosts Illinois Saturday night in what will be the first home game between ranked opponents in program history for the Hoosiers. As things stand now, each team has College Football Playoff aspirations, and this game will be massive in determining who has a real shot to be among the last 12 standing.
While College Game Day passed this up, the rest of the country seems to agree that this is The Game to Watch this week, so here are three key stats to know about the matchup:
FPI
ESPN’s team ranking
metric is an imperfect one, but it does provide us some insight into what will surely be one of the biggest talking points entering the game – each team’s non-conference schedule.
The Illini have avoided the derision of the SEC talking heads by scheduling a game against Duke, a Power Four team with name recognition that’s had some recent success. After last weekend’s blowout win against Virginia Tech though, Old Dominion sits seven spots above Duke in ESPN’s FPI ranking.
This isn’t to say outright that Indiana’s win over ODU is better than Illnois’ win at Duke, especially since the Illini were on the road, but it is something to consider when evaluating what each team has done to this point this season.
Play-calling balance
I talked about some of this earlier this week when Curt Cignetti announced that Lee Beebe Jr. would be done for the season, but this Indiana offense has relied on the run. Probably more than you would expect given how good the passing game has looked at points this year.
So far, Indiana’s top four backs (including Beebe Jr. and Khobie Martin, who saw 13 carries last game) have carried the ball 110 times. The quarterbacks have only attempted 65 passes over this span.
Now, there are a number of things contributing to how lopsided this has been to this point. Against lesser opponents, Indiana wanted to establish the run and get the offensive line moving bodies early. There was also no real reason to get deep into the playbook to show teams like Illinois what Mike Shanahan has up his sleeve.
While we were likely to see a higher ratio of passes this week against a higher-caliber opponent anyway, it’s unclear how the Beebe Jr. injury will affect the offensive approach going forward. This will be something to watch for against Illinois.
Win %
ESPN gives Indiana a 62.8% chance of victory Saturday night, while Vegas has the spread opening at four and a half points. The AP Poll and broadcast will frame it as something of an upset if Indiana wins, but at this point, the consensus is that the Hoosiers are the favorites.
Of course, this means a whole lot less if Indiana doesn’t meet these expectations and win Saturday night, but it’s worth reflecting on. It’s an attempt at quantifying just how far Indiana has come in fewer than two seasons under Cignetti.
I myself believe Indiana will win Saturday, especially as somebody who has watched Indiana go 14-2 over Cignetti’s first 16 games. If you told me 15 months ago though that Indiana would be considered favorites over a top ten team at home, I don’t think I would have believed it.
Indiana has come along way and this Saturday will be a great chance for the program to take yet another step forward under Cignetti.
