The Championship Series are underway in the National League and the American League. Milwaukee has taken a commanding 2-0 series lead against the Dodgers, which has the Dodgers beat panicking that maybe the best team money can buy can’t actually beat the best team analytics can build. Meanwhile, two small market darlings are squaring off in the AL, where the Cleveland Guardians jumped out to a 1-0 lead over the Tampa Bay Rays.
Brewers vs. Dodgers: The Two Towers
I suppose it was inevitable that the only two teams in baseball with 100
or more wins would meet in the National League Championship Series. Just what none of us were waiting for: A Dodgers vs. Brewers rematch of the 2025 NLCS that saw LA unceremoniously sweep Milwaukee out of the Postseason days after they defeated the Cubs. This is a classic “cheer for the meteor” series for many Cubs fans.
These two juggernauts of teams could not be constructed more differently. The Dodgers have seemingly unlimited financial muscle and a willingness to flex it at all times. Their current payroll has more than a billion dollars deferred and is a virtual All Star roster of talent. First baseman Freddie Freeman is a 10-time All Star and was the 2020 MVP, shortstop Mookie Betts is an eight-time All Star and was the 2018 MVP, Shohei Ohtani is a six-time All Star and four-time MVP. Their bullpen is the only bullpen in baseball where former closers accept more money to be a high-leverage setup man and play for a ring.
Meanwhile, in Milwaukee, they rank 19th in total payroll. If you multiply their 146 million payroll by year, it would take them roughly 7.5 years to match the amount of money the Dodgers have deferred. In Milwaukee, they built this team from scratch with smart drafting, international free agent signings, trades and a slew of pre-MLB contract extensions designed to keep talented players like Jackson Chourio in Milwaukee before their full value was on display in the show [VIDEO].
The Dodgers are the team paying those players after they hit free agency, which is why their $339 million annual payroll is not merely double the Brewers payroll (before you get to deferrals), it’s second only to the New York Mets in all of baseball. That type of payroll disparity means you can stack former MVPs back-to-back in your lineup and still trade for the best pitcher in baseball at the deadline — but it does not mean you’ll inevitably win [VIDEO].
The concerns about the Dodgers are already pouring in, but this piece from Ken Rosenthal in The Athletic sums it up nicely:
The Milwaukee Brewers did it again Monday, defeating the Dodgers, 7-4, to take a 2-0 lead in the National League Championship Series. The Brewers look hungrier, more athletic and superior in the bullpen. Including playoffs, they’re now up to 108 wins.
It’s difficult to imagine the Dodgers taking four of the next five games, even with the next three at home. But considering how many escapes they pulled off while becoming two-time World Series champions, it’s also difficult to imagine them just fading away.
“We know what we can do. We know the team that we have,” left fielder Teoscar Hernández said. “There is still a lot of series to go. We know right now they’re playing really good baseball. They’re going to be tough to beat. But it’s not impossible.”
No, it’s not, but so much for the Dodgers needs to change.
The Dodgers and Brewers were second and third in total MLB offense by fWAR (behind the Cubs). They ranked first (Dodgers) and fourth (Brewers) in starting pitching fWAR while they were virtually tied at third (Dodgers) and fourth (Brewers) in relief pitching. This is a remarkably close series on paper. However, as Rosenthal wrote for the piece above “It’s not over. But if you were to picture the end of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ championship run, this is how it would look, no?” It is, exactly how it would look. The young talent on the Brewers just edging out the veteran talent of the Dodgers. There are still potentially five games left to play, which tower will remain standing at the end?
Guardians vs. Rays: The Fellowship without a Ring
Meanwhile in the American League a different battle is raging. If the Dodgers v. Brewers is a battle of the haves and the haves lesses, the battle in the American League is two teams with the smallest payrolls in baseball fighting for a shot to finally win a ring. According to Spotrac, the Tampa Bay Rays’ $95 million payroll ranked 28th among 30 teams in 2026 while the Cleveland Guardians’ $74 million payroll ranked dead last. In addition to rosters built on league-minimum salaries, platoons and youth, the Guardians and Rays have one other thing in common: a lack of championships (a characteristic they notably share with the Brewers).
Cubs fans might recall that the last time Cleveland won a World Series was 1948. Part of what made 2016 such appointment viewing for fans was the knowledge that one long championship drought was sure to end. The Guardians have yet to win it all, it’s been 78 long years of waiting in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Rays are one of the teams who has yet to win it all, period.
Cleveland took the first game between these two teams winning 7-3 last night with both Chase DeLauter and Patrick Bailey hitting home runs. Team leader, and sure first ballot Hall of Famer, José Ramírez was in the middle of all of it, going two-for-five, driving in a run and playing outstanding defense at third base [VIDEO].
The Rays will try to rebound in Game 2 with Freddy Peralta on the mound. Although, to be clear, starting pitchers were not the problem for Tampa Bay in Game 1. Drew Rasmussen threw a dazzling six innings, striking out seven [VIDEO].
Rasmussen allowed just two runs (unfortunately, they were both solo home runs). This game wasn’t decided by either teams (excellent) starting pitching. It was decided by the bullpens, and in Game 1, that edge went to Cleveland.
These teams are fairly evenly matched. Cleveland holds a slight edge with their relief pitching, although Tampa Bay had the more effective starters this season. The offensive edge goes to the Rays, who had the fourth best offense in baseball and the best offense in the American League by fWAR. The Rays collection of above average platoons and young stars includes 23-year old Junior Caminero, who already has two 40 home run seasons under his belt [VIDEO]:
The Guardians’ best hitters in 2026 were Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan and Travis Bazzana, but their Postseason hopes probably depend on Ramírez eclipsing all of those hitters production and leading his squad passed the Rays. One thing is certain: the team who wins the ALCS will have their eyes locked on a long elusive Championship ring.
