Instead of making lame predictions with little information, we decided several years ago, to take a different approach. We would look at the season through the lens of risk analysis. It’s week before the first Game Day, so let’s start this thing off.
A Quick Primer on Risk
For the folks new to this, let’s do a quick explanation of the first chart, and what’s being shown. The big explanation as to why this isn’t just some sort of “toss out for clicks” pre-season WAG on the Win/Loss numbers for the schedule is that it’s boring,
often more of a wish list, and often wrong as well. Actually, most predictions within the great college football peloton of average and above average programs (Tech is one of them, sorry if that intrudes on the fan feelings.) are based on some sort of historical estimate of generally perceived risk. The problem is that it is more of the expression of gut feelings than actually breaking down some of the more critical issues facing a team.
An Opponent Poses a Potential Risk, and the Reverse is Also True
The reality of college sports is that every team must rebuild some or all of their program every single season. This condition is even more common as the Transfer Portal Era has made roster management chaotic and uneven. That also means that determining the risk level a team presents to opponents evolves as much as the risk level the opponent poses to the team being analyzed in the chart. So, to get a relative feel for the potential outcome of a game, the risk posed TO the opponent must be considered next to the risk posed BY the opponent.
The Chart
There will be three charts this season, as per usual. The first attempt at anything close to rational will be in schedule order this season. The reason for not sorting the first attempt by risk instead of schedule is pretty obvious. We have no clue as to how well or poorly this Virginia Tech team is going to be under the new coaching regime, and with a major revamp of personnel. The charts divide the season in thirds. The first third (4 games) will be the confirming baseline for the 2nd and 3rd charts which will be presented in the order of the opponent’s risk to the Hokies. The Hokies, by agreement, have removed a non-conference game from their schedule in order to add a 19th ACC conference game. That means the first 4 will include an actual ACC contest (Boston College) to the mix. This makes the baseline a bit more meaningful, depending on the performance of both teams.
We will pay more attention to the first four games, and the results will probably be a strong indication of the remainder of the season. Those will be broken down below the chart, followed by a general analysis of the remaining games in the season.
Setting the Baseline in the First Third
The first three games of the season are non-conference matchups that range from cupcake to peer challenge. The fourth game will be the first real indicator of the potential success or failure in the ACC phony championship formulation.
Game 1: Mid/Low Level FCS Virginia Military Institute – Sept. 5th
Probable Result: Virginia Tech Win
This game is still a head scratcher. It’s obvious that VMI is both an old-time traditional rival, and their opportunity to play an FBS team might just fund their athletic program for the season, but volunteering to be a cupcake for a team that is several levels above your players’ capabilities and skill sets is just not understandable. Why Tech would sign up for it might be understandable at some level, but the game might be embarrassing at other levels. Tech hasn’t played VMI since Bill Dooley finally pulled the program out of the gray area between Division 1-AA (FCS) and Division 1-A (FBS) back in 1985.
It’s really difficult to see what this matchup proves with a near 100% chance of winning. There is always an extremely slim possibility of a disaster occurring, but the measure of this game will be the point total at the half, and the amount of “garbage time” allowed by that score. The Hokie past performance against FCS teams has always been worryingly suspect, though. The first warning sign for this one will be if Tech scores less than 35 points in the first half. If the Hokies field the first-string offense and defense to start the game, VMI shouldn’t even get near scoring, and Tech should score on every offensive drive – with the potential of a defensive score here and there.
The night start with presumed full “Enter Sandman earthquake and fireworks” is unusual and possible only because its viewer ratings quotient is pretty low.
(Author’s note: If Tech struggles and the game is low scoring with VMI actually grabbing real points, I am going to be really concerned about the season.)
Game 2: G6 Sun Belt Challenger Old Dominion University – Sept. 12th
Probable Result: Virginia Tech Win (but a Loss is very possible)
Nobody is fooling anybody. This is a real family feud, now. Even with future games being limited or eliminated altogether, this game is going to mean something to both teams. For Tech, it will be the first near-peer program matchup with Ricky Rahne faced off against Brent Pry, again. This time the boss, James Franklin, is on the sideline for Tech. This is going to be the first real test for the Hokies. Their risk level to Tech is a Moderate/Low but Tech’s is only a Moderate (as a post-2025 disaster rating with a bump for the potential of good things happening) since we really can use the VMI game as a gauge for how good Tech’s offense and defense are going to be.
The noon kickoff is going to be problematic. Game 1 starts at 7:30 PM just as the temps from late Summer are abating and the sun is down past the West stands. Game 2 will be played in nearly the same conditions but with the sun high in the sky. Lane could be brutal on the field.
(Author’s note: This game might be a maker or back breaker. If Tech struggles and barely wins that will mean something in regard to Game 3 -and beyond. If Tech loses this one, at home, it will probably be a very long and disappointing season.)
Game 3: at B1G Maryland – Sept. 19th
Probable Result: Virginia Tech Win (in a close game – but a very possible Loss, too)
This one is another 7:30 PM kickoff and an away contest. There is an irony with this game that has to do with the university side of Virginia Tech. Virginia and Maryland share the Veterinary School – If you see their diplomas, they are issued by both universities. Needless to say, that’s not the only oddity. Maryland bolted the ACC for the B1G soon after Tech joined the ACC. Except for an occasional basketball tiff, though there isn’t a ton of rivalry history between the two schools on the grid iron. Maryland is a perennial dweller in the basement of the B1G East division, and in the B1G in general. They’ve had major problems finding a winning coaching and talent mixture to get much past the .500 level and a booger bowl. Needless to say, they defeated a decimated Tech in the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl, which is also the last time that we faced off against the Terps.
This game will be a primetime kickoff on either Fox Sports or FS1 – so the new look Hokies are going to have to stand out. The problem is that Maryland might be a .500 team in the B1G but that puts them structurally pretty high against ACC opponents. They killed a crippled Hokie team in 2021, and that emotion set might still be hovering around the locker rooms. Whatever the feelings, the last two seasons have been losing propositions for the Terps, and the news about their rebuild hasn’t been very detailed. Their head coach Mike Locksley is on a hot seat this season, and they look structurally very much like Virginia Tech.
This is going to be a peer matchup, with a slight edge going to the Hokies, IF they have won the first two games. Maryland is young, rebuilding again, and struggling.
(Author’s note: This game is highly dependent on the first two. If Tech struggles in either or both, the Terps could take the win. This is the first big peer challenge for the season, and a loss could be devastating.)
Game 4: at ACC Boston College – Sept. 26th
Probable Result: Virginia Tech Win (But who knows with BC?)
If any team could have a worse and even more disappointing season than the Hokies in 2025, it was the BC Eagles. Their 2-10 record followed a marginal 7-6 record in 2024 for Travelling Head Coach Bill O’Brien who, ironically enough, was replaced at Penn State, after being fired there, by James Franklin. That might or might not play into this game, but what will is that this matchup is a very quiet and very old rivalry by modern football standards.
The Eagles and the Hokies have traded blows ever since the old Big East days, and that just kept rolling as BC joined the ACC in its early 2000’s expansion. No Hokie forgets the “Matty Ice” disaster in the rain, only to be followed up by a major defeat for the Eagles in the ACC Championship.
This season, these teams will be vying for a really important conference win. This is especially true because this 4th game in their schedules is the start of the ACC schedule for both teams. The probable result, here, is a Virginia Tech win if we apply the early interpretation of the risks the teams post to each other, but the first three games of the season for BC look very much like the first three for Tech. The chances of a win could shift dramatically if either team comes into the contest at something less than 3-0.
(Author’s note: The Moderate/Low rating for BC and the Moderate/High for Tech could change drastically by the kickoff in Chestnut Hill. By Game Day and the TBA kickoff time, it could be a dead even struggle bus match-up, regardless of the record.)
All Things Remaining Equal… NOT!
We’ll have to see about the remaining 2/3rds of the season and really drill down into the probabilities and risks associated with each team once Tech closes the door on the first third of the schedule. If all things remain equal from this risk chart, the Hokies look like they might be modestly favored for 2 of the remaining 8 games after the start.
Toss Ups: Pitt and Cal
Hokies in Underdog Status: Georgia Tech
Hokies Need a Miracle: Clemson, SMU, and Miami
Tech Solidly Favored: Stanford and the Hoos
The expectation is that the population of those categories might change depending on the results in the first four contests. It’s a very binary thing, too. It’s either really good or really bad:
- If Virginia Tech is 4-0 to start (with solid comfortable wins over ODU, Maryland, and BC, and a season’s tub-thumping runaway garbage time game against VMI) Tech’s prospects for more than 2 wins in the last 8 will greatly improve.
- If Tech has a poor game against ODU, gets beaten by Maryland, and then falls to BC it’s very unlikely that Tech will even win enough to qualify for a bowl game and the Stanford and UVA games would drop to toss-up status.
If Tech ends up with the first four at 3-1 – there will be some hope for a .500 record and a booger bowl. If they hit Game 5 with a 2-2 record the outcome of the season, barring a miracle, would be largely the same as if it started October at 1-3.
Given the Information at Hand Let’s Look at Floors and Ceilings
A. Tech starts 4-0 in roaring fashion: Floor: 7-5 Ceiling: 10-2 (or even better, no kidding)
B. Tech starts 4-0 with close games and real struggles: Floor: 7-5 Ceiling: 8-4 (9-3 is possible)
C. Tech starts 3-1 with a loss to either Maryland or BC: Floor 6-6 Ceiling: 7-5 (8-4 is possible)
D. Tech starts 2-2 (Losses to the Terps and either Eagles or Monarchs) or 1-3: Floor: 3-9 Ceiling: 6-6 (5-7 at 1-3)
Right now, the hazy crystal ball says that scenario B is the most probable outcome for the season. We just won’t know until we see how the first third of the season pans out.
