After a couple of weeks in the sun, I was hoping I would return to the UK with a renewed sense of football optimism, a sudden realisation Noel Hunt was right all along: that Lewis Wing is most definitely more effective sitting in front of our centre-backs and Ben Elliott is a far better player when he is sat on the bench rather than causing the opposition problems on the pitch.
While the renewed sense of football optimism is still apparent and Saturday’s game can’t come quick enough, I am still worried
that we’re not only under-utilising our best players but also becoming so rigid in a system that rarely works that we are now unable to change it, or maybe do not know how to.
In this column I have regularly lauded Hunt and given him time without criticism to best utilise the players he has available, and find a system that players feel comfortable with and is flexible enough to be changed when required.
Criticism of results to date and the way we play may feel somewhat mistimed (on the back of four points from three games since I last wrote) and maybe even harsh, but facts are facts, and nine points from nine games is simply not good enough with the players we have at our disposal.
So is Hunt still the man for the job, or has he just not had the players available to make a difference?
Equating our current tally to a full season, we would achieve 46 points and finish anywhere between 17th and 20th, based on an average over the last six League One campaigns, and in two of those seasons, 46 points saw teams relegated to League Two. Simply not acceptable!
Overly predictable substitutions?
Now I realise that simple maths doesn’t determine a team’s end-of-season fate, but the worry is that we are looking like a team without identity, without a best XI, and without a plan B when things are not working.
The introduction of Matt Ritchie against Leyton Orient and Stockport County was certainly something that gave us fresh impetus to push and get something from both games, although I suspect that much of that is down to the player’s determination and experience to get himself into more effective positions, rather than a tactical masterplan when he is called upon from the bench.
While I accept that many substitutions are made to simply introduce fresh legs, I would argue that the more successful sides in every division make such changes to change the shape of the team and upset the rhythm of the opposition. To emphasise my point, in the first nine league games of this season we have made 37 substitutions, with 32 of those being like-for-like in terms of the position that each substitute occupies when on the pitch.
It is also worth noting that the substitutions made to date have resulted in just one goal and three goal involvements.
If you compare that to other teams in League One, it is surely no coincidence that five of the top seven teams in terms of ‘substitutions to goal assist assist ratio’ occupy five of the seven top positions in League One, with many of those making changes to their respective team’s shape and formation when substitutions are made.
My point here is that everything we do is very predictable and sometimes feels almost scripted, simply because we do not seem to have a plan B; it’s just a change of personnel to plan A and carry on regardless. Even the timing of our substitutions shows a similar trend over the last nine games, which further emphasises the somewhat habitual approach to management that seems to have been adopted.
That habitual approach to our substitutions in particular leaves us completely vulnerable to opposing teams who then make their own substitutions to change the game. In the first five league games of the season, we conceded shortly after making changes to personnel (not shape) in all five, so in answer to my own earlier question, those stats would probably tell you that Hunt has got things horribly wrong and is no longer the man for the job.
Recent improvement
HOWEVER: There is a more positive recent trend that can be derived from these stats, and one that hopefully shows we now have the players available to make an impact at this level (if used effectively), and we are learning from our desire to make changes for the sake of it.
The substitutions made in the last four league games have seen us concede zero goals after making those changes and pick up seven points as a result. It is also no coincidence that those four games have coincided with the introduction of Jack Marriott and Ritchie, so there is also an argument that Hunt really didn’t have the players at his disposal to make an impact in the first five games of the season.
Having Marriott of course means we have a focal point to our attack, and again it is no coincidence that we have created more chances in the last four games than we did in the first five, so you would hope we’re finally seeing players gelling on the pitch and understanding how to get the best out of each other.
The fear of course is losing Marriott to injury, as we have little in the way of alternatives, with Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan doing little to justify the long wait for his signature on a new contract, and Mark O’Mahony suffering from a lack of confidence in front of goal. Although, as I write this, O’Mahony has just netted against West Ham United’s under-21s for his first goal in a Reading shirt.
Whether that positive trend continues remains to be seen, but on the basis that there are signs of progress, I am happy to stick with what we have (for now) in terms of a management team.
But we need to see we’re continuing to learn from previous mistakes and making the most of the players that we have available, playing them in positions that can hurt the opposition and not trying to fit square pegs into round holes.
Consistent selections in both full-back positions are most definitely needed, as is the need to conduct training sessions without damaging our defenders. I say that tongue-in-cheek, but I find it incredible that we continue to pick up defensive injuries on such a frequent basis, or maybe it is purely because they have been so overworked!
This Saturday we entertain Nigel Clough’s Mansfield Town at the SCL, who incidentally sit second in the ‘substitution to goal/assist ratio’ table that I referred to earlier, with only Huddersfield Town sitting above them, so we need to react to any substitutions made.
Mansfield currently are 12th in League One following a mixed start to the season, but like all Clough sides, I would expect them to be organised and difficult to beat.
That said, I think we will continue our recent improved form and win the game 2-1.
Reading 2-1 Mansfield Town
(Marriott, Wing / Evans)
11,586
Until next week, much love and c’mon URZZZ!
Dixey
