Last week ATS: 9-10 (6-4 National, 3-6 B1G)
Season ATS: 74-69 (29-36 National, 45-33 B1G)
Last week was so close to looking as good as the previous week. Five of my losses were in games where my pick missed covering by two points or less. USC, Ole Miss, and UCLA all were half a point shy of covering,
while Indiana allowed a late field goal to Michigan State, losing the cover.
Even with those setbacks, we still were nearly .500, which says a lot about how solid the rest of the week’s picks were. Now we’ll put last week behind us and look at closing out October with a big week while Ohio State is on a bye.
National Games
No. 8 Ole Miss v. No. 17 Oklahoma (-5.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
John Mateer might have come back a little too soon from the hand injury he suffered last month. The Washington State transfer hasn’t been sharp in the last two games, tossing three interceptions against Texas, followed by throwing for just 150 yards in last week’s win over South Carolina.
The Sooners still have one of the best defenses in the country, allowing less than 10 points in four of their seven games this season.
Ole Miss really should have beat Georgia last week. The Rebels entered the fourth quarter with a 35-26 lead before collapsing in Athens. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was solid in his first SEC road start, totaling over 300 yards and three scores against the Bulldogs.
With a trip to a hostile environment under his belt, I think this week Chambliss and the Rebels don’t blow a fourth quarter lead this week, dealing Oklahoma a big blow in their quest for a College Football Playoff spot.
Ole Miss 30, Oklahoma 27
No. 18 South Florida (-5.5) v. Memphis – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Imagine how massive this game would have been if Memphis hadn’t inexplicably lost to UAB last week. There still is plenty of intrigue in the battle between the Bulls and Tigers, as both teams will want to state their case to be the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff.
South Florida has rebounded nicely from the loss to Miami, scoring at least 48 points in each of their last four games. Quarterback Byrum Brown has been electric for the Bulls this year, totaling at least four touchdowns in each of South Florida’s last four games.
Was last week just a fluke or are the Tigers headed for a second half slump? Memphis gave up over 200 yards rushing last week, while quarterback Brendon Lewis missed most of the second half after he was injured. Lewis is listed as “day-to-day” heading into this week’s game.
Even if Lewis does play, I’m not sure if the Tigers have enough offense to keep up with South Florida in this one.
South Florida 45, Memphis 35
No. 3 Texas A&M (-2.5) v. No. 20 LSU – 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC
After last week’s game I have learned my lesson when it comes to LSU. The Tigers are a sinking ship. I’m not sure why Garrett Nussmeier was thought of as a potential first round NFL pick since he is incredibly average.
Ironically, after struggling the last few seasons, the LSU defense has actually been pretty good this year. Brian Kelly’s seat in Baton Rouge is getting hotter by the week since his team isn’t living up to expectations.
One team that has surprised a bit this year is Texas A&M. By this point of the season I was thinking the Aggies would have a loss or two. Instead, Mike Elko’s team is still undefeated, but this is their toughest stretch of the season, as they are heading into the second of three consecutive road games.
If Texas A&M can get through the road trip unscathed, there is a very possibility they could finish the regular season undefeated. In a matchup of teams heading in opposite directions, the Aggies feel like the pick on Saturday night.
Texas A&M 34, LSU 24
B1G Games
UCLA v. No. 2 Indiana (-25.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Who would’ve thought UCLA would actually look somewhat competent on the field after firing pretty much everyone on their coaching staff earlier this season? The Bruins have won their last three games, and currently sit ahead of Illinois, Washington, and Penn State in the Big Ten standings.
If UCLA wants to put a scare into Indiana on Saturday, they’ll need their defense to keep up their recent strong play. Over the last four games, the Bruins have allowed 17 points or less in three of those contests.
Last year Indiana had to blow out opponents throughout the season to show they belonged in the College Football Playoff conversation. This year is different, especially after the monumental win at Oregon earlier this month.
I’m a little nervous about laying this many points, especially after the Hoosiers failed to cover last week on a late Michigan State field goal. UCLA plays some prideful football, staying within three touchdowns of Indiana in Bloomington on Saturday.
Indiana 38, UCLA 21
No. 23 Illinois v. Washington (-4.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – BTN
Both these teams enter this week at 5-2 after suffering a loss in their most recent game. Illinois had a week off to lick their wounds after they were beaten by Ohio State. Washington returns home following a 24-7 setback at Michigan last week.
This should be a fun matchup to watch, since both teams have dynamic quarterbacks that are capable of putting plenty of points on the scoreboard.
Despite having two losses, Illinois hasn’t yet been eliminated from playoff contention since their losses have come to Ohio State and Indiana. The Fighting Illini have no margin for error, though. Luke Altmyer has been good with the football this year, with the interception he threw against Ohio State being the only one he has tossed so far this season.
On the other side, Demond Williams Jr. came back to earth last week after his phenomenal performance in the win over Rutgers. I still like the weapons that surround Williams in running back Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston.
In all honesty, the Huskies should be ranked right now even after losing to Michigan. Unless you’re Ohio State, it’s not easy to leave Seattle with a victory. Illinois isn’t Ohio State.
Washington 31, Illinois 23
No. 25 Michigan (-14.5) v. Michigan State – 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC
A promising season for Michigan State has fallen apart. In just his second season in East Lansing, the pressure is already on head coach Jonathan Smith. The Spartans have lost their last four games, allowing at least 38 points in each of those losses. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has been fine, the problems for Michigan State has been a non-existent rushing attack and a porous defense.
Even without Justice Haynes last week, Michigan was still able to take down Washington in Ann Arbor. Jordan Marshall picked up the slack for the injured running back, totaling 133 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while Bryce Underwood completed 21 of his 27 pass attempts against the Huskies.
Haynes should be back on the field this week, which is why I like the Wolverines to overwhelm their rivals, extending their winning streak to four games in the series.
Michigan 33, Michigan State 13
Rapid Fire Picks
National
No. 16 Virginia (-10.5) v. North Carolina – 12:00 p.m. ET – ACC Network
Virginia 30, North Carolina 14
No. 15 Missouri v. No. 10 Vanderbilt(-2.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Missouri 24, Vanderbilt 21
No. 11 BYU v. Iowa State (-2.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – FOX
BYU 27, Iowa State 20
No. 4 Alabama (-12.5) v. South Carolina – 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC
Alabama 35, South Carolina 17
Baylor v. No. 21 Cincinnati (-4.5) – 4:00 p.m. ET – ESPN2
Cincinnati 38, Baylor 28
B1G
Northwestern v. Nebraska (-7.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Nebraska 21, Northwestern 17
Rutgers (-2.5) v. Purdue – 12:00 p.m. ET – BTN
Rutgers 31, Purdue 27
Minnesota v. Iowa (-8.5) – 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS
Iowa 23, Minnesota 20
Wisconsin v. No. 6 Oregon (-32.5) – 7:00 p.m. ET – FS1
Oregon 45, Wisconsin 7
