The San Diego Padres offense has given fans whiplash this season with their inconsistent performances throughout the year. From winning streaks and long runs of good offense, to losing streaks and equally long runs of bad offense.
Lots of discussion has occurred about the Padres lineup not reflecting player trends or handedness of the pitcher being faced. Manager Mike Shildt seems to favor sticking with the same basic lineup no matter the circumstances.
A discussion of the Padres lineup that reflects
player performance or the pitcher being faced is always an entertaining subject for baseball fans. The following is a lineup based on the numbers so far this season, as well as what it could look like if you changed it up depending on the handedness of the starting pitcher.
Conventional thinking regarding who hits where in the batting order has changed since the onset of analytics. If you consult a search engine or Open AI to assist in deciding who should hit where, the results will be different than conventional wisdom. All will be included for this comparison.
Padres vs right-handed starters
- If you consult AI, Luis Arraez is the choice. On-base skills and base running are skills valued for the leadoff hitter. His OBP is .346 with a .306 average. His biggest drawback is he is not a particularly good baserunner. The Padres have used Arraez to leadoff, but definitely prefer Fernando Tatis Jr. His .375 OBP is better than Arraez and he has 24 stolen bases out of 30 attempts.
- The is the spot for the second best hitter on the team and he should be a good contact hitter. Some power potential is a plus. AI gives the nod to Tatis, but if you go by OBP it is Jake Cronenenworth at .364. This has been Arraez for most of the season and his OBP is .346.
- The best all-around hitter usually hits at this spot. The Padres have been using Manny Machado here almost exclusively. AI chooses Jackson Merrill for this spot. Not necessarily a bad idea versus right-handed pitchers. In a somewhat down year, Merrill has a .779 OPS versus righties.
- The clean-up hitter should be the guy with the best power numbers. Machado is the AI choice. Only Gavin Sheets or Ryan O’Hearn could even approach his power, but neither of them are as good a hitter as Machado. His .832 OPS versus righties is second to Tatis, who has more home runs and a higher OPS than Machado (15 HR, .853 OPS). Tatis could hit behind Machado or Merrill here.
- The second best power hitter belongs in this spot, doubles and triples included. This is a good spot for O’Hearn or Sheets, but AI gives the job to Cronenworth. He has 6 HR and 30 RBI against righties, whereas Sheets has 14 HR and 43 RBI, and O’Hearn has 13 HR and 40 RBI.
- This is where matchups and OBP begin to play into the equation. AI gives the spot to Xander Bogaerts with his right-handed bat and .322 OBP. This spot is often filled by Ramón Laureano in the Padres order and he has a .400 OBP in his 15 games with the team.
- Same criteria here. A good spot for Sheets or O’Hearn. AI picks O’Hearn for this spot. He has a.277 average with a .370 OBP and .450 slug, while Sheets is hitting .277/.323/.453 versus righties this season. They are remarkably similar.
- The same situation exists for this spot in the lineup and AI picks Laureano for this slot. This is where Cronenworth has been hitting in recent past. It would probably be more matchup related in the real world.
- The second best on-base hitter should go in this spot to create traffic on the base paths for the top of the lineup. AI chooses Freddy Fermin and this is where he has been hitting; as well as Elias Diaz when he starts. Fermin has a .283/.331/.388 line versus righties for the season, but with the Padres he has a .400 OBP and a .517 slug.
Padres vs left-handed starters
- Arraez leads off with AI, but Tatis Jr. has this spot for the Padres no matter who is pitching. His OBP against lefties is .348. The best OBP on the team versus left-handers is Bogaerts with a .359, but Tatis is next after him. Bogaerts has turned into a pretty good baserunner as well and it would be interesting to see our new and improved Bogaerts leading off.
- Traditionally, we see Arraez here and AI gives this spot to Tatis. Not likely that is going to happen, but it makes sense. Arraez has a .282 OBP against lefties and putting him at the top of the order makes no sense at all by the stated criteria of OBP or power potential.
- Merrill is AI’s choice again. He will probably be the best overall hitter on the team someday, maybe as soon as next season. This year he is hitting .238/.274/.365 with 2 HR and 15 RBI off lefties. Again, this slot belongs to Machado and that probably won’t change, even with his recent slump.
- AI is consistent in choosing Machado for this spot and the Padres use Merrill here quite a bit. He hasn’t lived up to the needs of this spot this season and it should be Machado here or maybe Sheets/O’Hearn if matchups are favorable.
- This spot usually goes to Bogaerts, but AI wants Cronenworth here. Cronenworth has hit lefties pretty well this season and has a good on-base of .347, but your second best power hitter should go here and either O’Hearn or Sheets would fit well in this spot. Sheets has a .272 average versus lefties with 11 RBI and O’Hearn is hitting .209 with 25 RBI for the season. Since joining the Padres, O’Hearn has hit .800/.833/2.400 in five at-bats versus lefties and has five RBI.
- Bogaerts gets the nod here from AI, but this has been the part of the lineup that does get shifted around based on matchups and if any of the bench players are starting. We have seen Laureano, O’Hearn, Iglesias and Sheets all hit here.
- Sheets gets this spot with AI and we have seen Cronenworth and Laureano hit here frequently. With these being on-base and matchup spots, there are also occasions when bench players are slotted in here as well.
- Laureano is the eighth hitter for AI and this has been where Cronenworth most frequently hits. If Arraez isn’t at the top, then the bottom third might be a better fit for him against lefties.
- AI agrees that this is the best spot for Fermin whether the Padres are facing lefties or righties. His .200/.250/.200 line versus left-handers with the Padres hasn’t been great, but his season line of .238/.289/.286 is a bit better. If Fermin isn’t playing then Diaz hits here.
The AI option used for this discussion was ChatGPT. As a disclaimer, I got different results using different prompt language so this was just for the purpose of compare and contrast.
