Recently, College Basketball Report on Twitter released a list of the top 100 teams in average KenPom finishes over the past 10 seasons. Rutgers found its name on the list at 75th, as it had compiled an average KenPom finish of 82nd over the past 10 years, tied with Missouri, which was ranked at 74th. These finishes include Rutgers’ recent trips to the NCAA tournament, and the teams back to back 3-15 conference finishes that occurred in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018.
KenPom measures teams based on efficiency
to not only paint a picture of how a basketball team compares to the rest of the nation, but also a fairly predictive formula that can chart where a team might be heading, as well. This means that, according to KenPom’s metrics, Rutgers basketball has averaged being the 82nd most efficient team in the past 10 seasons, which ranks 75th among all college basketball teams.
The past 10 seasons for Rutgers have come almost entirely under the helm of current head coach Steve Pikiell, who is now entering his 10th season with the program. While it is worth noting that the team has had some disappointing seasons as of late, it is also important to note that four out of the eight times Rutgers has been ranked in the AP Poll have come under Pikiell in the last 10 years, per sportsreference.com.
The main issue here is that Rutgers has shown a downward trend over the past few seasons, both in overall rankings and KenPom efficiency. With the Scarlet Knights making several capable additions in the transfer portal, the hope is that the team will show improvement because they were able to keep their core guys around as well.
Rutgers ranked near the bottom of the country in a few KenPom metrics last season. These included Averaged 2 point attempt distance, where they were rated 360th, 2 point percentage, where they were rated 341st, and effective field goal percentage, where they were 331st. A lot of these numbers, especially the average 2-pointer distance, can be improved with better center play. Since centers play closer to the basket, they take more high-percentage two-point shots. The Knights grabbed two centers in the transfer portal, Christian Gurdak from Virginia Tech and Dorin Buca from Kansas State. Both should play a factor in lowering these statistics, especially considering Rutgers poor center play over the past few seasons.
However, these also reflect Pikiell’s style of offense overall. Over the past few seasons, the Rutgers head coach has faced some backlash for not adapting to the changing styles in college basketball that favor driving to the net and the three-point shot. While these numbers should be better next season with the overall better roster, it is hard to imagine them being flipped on their head because of Pikiell’s style of offense.
Rutgers defensive statistics weren’t much better either, which is an anomaly for Pikiell, who is a defense-first head coach. Last season, the Knights ranked 287th in three-point percentage against, 292nd in offensive rebound percentage against, and 269th in field goal percentage against. The hope is that the more the young core is in Pikiell’s system, the better their defense will become, as was the case with several players who have come before them. Pikiell has shown a good ability to teach defense in the past, but it usually took some time in his system for that to develop. By retaining a core group of players, the Knights hope to have a team that is further along in that development than they have had in the past few years.
