What’s the biggest storyline heading into Texas vs. Georgia — is it the battle in the trenches, Arch vs Stetson, Sark vs Smart, or something else?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) – It’s going to be the
trench play for me. I don’t think either team is as good as they were last year in the trenches, but that is ultimately going to dictate who is able to come out on top in this matchup. Can Texas get pressure on Stockton and contain him in the pocket? Can Texas protect Arch? Can they run the football at all? I will be watching these things on Saturday.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) – I think the biggest storyline has to be Sark vs. Smart. After taking a beating at home a year ago and not getting it over the finish line in the SEC Championship game, Texas clearly has a Georgia problem. A win over UGA to both knock them out of the SEC Championship picture and keep themselves alive in the CFP race would do a lot to right those wrongs and rewrite the narrative of this budding rivalry.
Cameron Parker (@camerondparker) – Sark vs Smart. Texas is 2-6 against top five teams in the country under Sark, and two more remain on the schedule. If the Longhorns are to make a playoff push, they’ll need to win at least one of those games. But big picture here, if Texas is to truly compete for national titles, they’ll have to start beating the Georgias and the Ohio States of the college football world. Saturday is a chance to prove that Texas has really turned the corner.
Jacob Neidig (@jneidig_2) – A true litmus test for whether Texas’s redemption arc is real or not. And arguably, whether Georgia is a true title contender. I think this game is much more about whether each team is legit. This will be a chance for Texas to prove they deserve to be in the playoff conversation and for Georgia to cement themselves as a big dog in the title hunt.
Quentin Bell (@uncleqbell) – I’m gonna lean towards Sark vs Smart, because everything from schemes to mentality trickles down from the coaches. How Sark devises the offensive scheme against Smart’s defense will be interesting to see due to the intensity alone with the O and D-Line, but knowing discipline and execution win football games. Arch vs Stetson will be a show, but who’s gonna out coach who?
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) – It’s Sark vs. Smart, for sure. To accomplish the goals that Sarkisian has for the Texas program, the Longhorns will have to beat the Bulldogs in big games to topple the Georgia dynasty. If Texas can’t do that, they probably aren’t good enough to win a national championship – witness the flaws that the Horns demonstrated in two games against the Bulldogs last season, significantly impacting the Cotton Bowl loss to the Buckeyes, especially the inability to run the football. Right now, Smart has a big edge over Sarkisian, and that’s going to have to change, or it will loom large over the entirety of Sarkisian’s tenure on the Forty Acres.
In the previous two meetings, the Bulldogs sacked Quinn Ewers 13 times. The Longhorns have far less experience on the offensive line, but Georgia has a less explosive defensive front. Which side do you favor in the battle in the trenches?
Daniel – Georgia hasn’t been great at rushing the passer this year, but I still have PTSD from the two games last year. I think it’s going to be pretty close with Sark and Texas figuring some things out offensively over the past couple of weeks.
Gerald – We don’t have enough data for me to say this definitively, but my gut says that if Texas plays the OL combination from Vanderbilt against Florida earlier in the year, that game looks a bit different offensively. Georgia has 11 sacks on the year and three of them came against Mississippi State, averaging just over 1 sack per game. I don’t think the Texas OL will allow just six pressures like they did against Vanderbilt, but if they can keep that number in the 12-15 range rather than the 26 they allowed the week prior, I feel good about the offense.
Cameron – This is more about the Texas OL than the Georgia DL. Kentucky averages two sacks per game, but got to Arch Manning five times. Granted, Cole Hutson was not available against the Wildcats and was a big reason why the Longhorns kept Arch’s jersey clean against Vanderbilt. I don’t see Arch being sacked six or seven times in this contest, but I also expect the Bulldogs to have a better pass rush day.
Jacob – I think passing downs favor Texas, but expect the Georgia rushing defense to be stout. 9 of Georgia’s 11 sacks are from linebackers. The EDGEs and interior defense line have not been effective pass rushers. I’d be shocked if Arch is sacked more than one or twice. Whether the Texas offensive line can consistently get a push while running the ball seems much more treacherous than protecting Arch.
Quentin – I’m gonna lean towards the Texas O-line, because of the growth shown throughout the weeks. How Sark has moved the O-line around there has been an improvement, even though averaging 3.9 yards per carry isn’t the wave, but as long as the O-line can execute and be discipline,d the momentum will be there in the pass and run game.
Wescott – This Bulldogs front isn’t nearly as dangerous from a pass-rushing standpoint as it was last season, but this Longhorns offensive line also isn’t nearly as good as it was last season. Given the talent that Smart has accumulated and the admitted lack of athleticism for the Texas interior line, I’m going to give Georgia the edge by a significant margin until Texas can prove me wrong.
The biggest X-factor in tomorrow’s game is…
Daniel – I think it’s going to be guys like Michael Taaffe, Manny Muhammad, and Jelani McDonald in the secondary. When those guys have been out, we have seen a huge drop-off in play back there. Texas will have them all back in the lineup this week, and they will have to be at their best against Stockton and the Georgia passing attack.
Gerald – The Texas ground game. All of UGA’s tightest games of the year came against teams that rushed for more than 100 yards, so if CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner were able to get some rehab done over the bye week, I think the Texas offense will find success.
Cameron – Turnovers and Special Teams. Texas needs to win the turnover battle and make big plays on special teams to win this game. I
Jacob – The Texas offensive line. It all starts up front. This group seems to have turned a corner, but in a raucous environment at night, it wouldn’t be surprising if the unit backslides. If Arch and Co. can diagnose pressures correctly and give the line a chance, the Texas offense should be able to move the ball. And, if the boys up front are able to get the ground game going, well, the outcomes swings even farther in favor of the Longhorns.
Quentin – Can the frontline come together for the Longhorns? Preventing the pass rush and gaining momentum on the run will be difficult, but there is favor for Texas with the lack of pressure that Georgia has given, recording 11 sacks on the season. It’ll be easier for Georgia to adjust defensively compared to the Texas offense having to adjust, so can the Texas line keep it together?
Wescott – The Texas pass rush. Georgia has only allowed 11 sacks all season, tied for 21st nationally, pitting good on good with the surging Longhorns front producing 23 sacks over the last four games. With only two interceptions and six turnover-worthy throws, Gunner Stockton hasn’t put the ball at risk, but his accuracy has flagged under pressure – he’s only completed 46.8 percent of his passes in those situations. So even if the Longhorns can’t sack Stockton, they can impact the game by getting pressure that forces incompletions and puts the Bulldogs’ offense off schedule or gets them off the field.
What will be the Longhorns’ record over the final three games?
Daniel – I will be optimistic and say 2-1. I think Texas will win the Arkansas game and split the games between A&M and Georgia. If they want any shot at sneaking in the playoff they have to find a way to get to 9-3 and get another top 10 win.
Gerald – 2-1 feels fair for Texas. Weirdly enough, I think Georgia is more winnable than Texas A&M, but I think splitting those games is the right call.
Cameron – 2-1
Jacob – 2-1. This season has been too unpredictable to make a confident 2–1 call, but I still believe Texas’s current trajectory points in the right direction. There will be more good than bad down the stretch. And with two of the final three at home plus a rivalry game on deck, I think the Longhorns are positioned to finish strong and put the playoff committee in a tight spot.
Quentin – Winning out is tough to see if I’m being honest, but I would love to see it. Realistically, 2-1 with the loss to Georgia in Georgia and taking Arkansas and No. 3 A&M at home.
Wescott – It’s hard to see Texas winning out over the final three games since Georgia has a win expectancy of nearly 60 percent, and the Longhorns just haven’t been able to overcome the Bulldogs yet. ESPN does favor Texas over No. 3 Texas A&M in the regular-season finale, so I’ll go chalk with those win expectancies and say 2-1, in part because I think the Aggies have benefited from some luck this season.
Will Texas pull off the upset in Athens? (+5.5 at FanDuel) or Georgia?
Daniel (6-3/1-8 ATS) – I have to see Texas beat Georgia with my own eyes before I feel good about picking them outright. I am taking Georgia in this one because they have been one of the most resilient teams I’ve watched all year. Georgia 28, Texas 24.
Gerald (6-3/2-7 ATS) – I feel so torn on this game. A part of me says that Georgia has played with fire too much this year and struggled with the more talented teams on their schedule, but we said that last year. Another part of me says that winning is a skill, and whether you win by two or 22, getting the job done is all that matters. I can see a very clear path for Texas to win that game, but I haven’t seen them play consistently enough this year for me to feel good about them taking that path. Texas 21, Georgia 24
Cameron (5-4/5-4 ATS) – I think this Georgia team is a bit underrated in the SEC. They don’t have the same pass rush as they did last season, but I think they have a better offense than they did the last time these two met. I could see Arch taking this game over, but I’ll go with the safe and take the Dawgs. Texas 20, Georgia 27
Jacob (7-2/4-5 ATS) – Depends on what Texas team shows up and for how long. The Longhorns were fantastic for 50 minutes against Vandy. Will they be able to reach that amount against Georgia? Is 50 minutes even enough? I don’t know. I’m also pretty unsure about the flavor of this game as a whole. I think there’s a strong argument to be made for a defensive struggle and one for a shootout. I give Texas the edge coming off a bye week with a healthier roster than Georgia and ample time for Sark to pin the Longhorns against the world. Texas 24, Georgia 20.
Quentin (6-2/3-5 ATS) – It’s gonna be a tough road game; Georgia’s home field advantage gives them the edge. I think Sark and Texas could and might make a move by showing some grit against the resilient Dawgs with execution, discipline, and intensity. Schemes/play calling are gonna be key for both the teams, if Texas can be consistent on both sides; Texas 28, Georgia 27.
Wescott (5-5/3-6 ATS) – It’s shocking how bad I’ve been at this, so I think I’m just going to start going with ESPN’s SP+ predictions, which has the Longhorns losing, but covering the spread – Texas 23, Georgia 27
