With our current cap situation, it would not appear that we would cut a player for the sole reason of saving money. What would be other reasons to cut a player that most would consider a part of this coming year’s team? An injury is always a possibility, as well as the emergence of a younger or less expensive player. One other possibility might be that the player wants to be gone and a trade partner can’t be found.
According to Spotrac, we sit just shy of 32 million dollars, under the cap, which is
good for 7th most in the NFL. I don’t believe there is a player that could become available to us, that would need cap maneuvering to bring aboard. In all honesty, 32 million would be enough to get a veteran WR and a flyer on a DE, as we all have suggested. It would take something or someone that is beyond unseen, for us to cut a player solely for money.
We have also locked down a bunch of our players that would have been due roster bonuses:
Cornerback Charvarius Ward’s $12.9 million 2026 salary is now guaranteed.
Defensive lineman DeForest Buckner earned a $10 million roster bonus.
Safety Cam Bynum’s $10 million 2026 salary is now guaranteed.
$8.3 million of left tackle Bernhard Raimann’s 2027 salary is now guaranteed.
Left guard Quenton Nelson earned a $2 million roster bonus.
Wide receiver and special teamer Ashton Dulin received a $340,000 roster bonus.
What players might get cut, should they get hurt to the level that they would not take the field for us?
We do have president for cutting a player with a bad neck, so not seeing Buck on the field could fuel some speculation. There are two void years on his contract, so even if he looks unable to play this year, I think we’d likely honor his contract. Same with Nelson. If he were unable to go this year, my guess is that we would take the entire year to make sure that gets a new multi-year deal. Should Ward suffer another concussion, his situation would turn into more of a retirement than a cut.
Two that could find themselves out, should they suffer a season ender might be Richardson and Taylor. We would have no future rights to AR, so if he can’t play, he has no value to us. Taylor would be a far more difficult decision. We know that there wont be a “home town” discount and based on his previous stance, he would not give an injury discount either. I don’t think a cut would happen if there was ANY hope that he could play meaningful games late in the season.
This really only leaves the emergence of a cheaper option as a reason to cut a veteran. Just as we went through each position group last week to find a weak link among positional backups, we can do the same to explore rising players. I don’t believe that we have a backup corner that would push Ward or Gardner out of a starting role and if it happened, we’d be looking to trade them, not cut them. Bynum is entrenched and Haulcey/Wholers are making rookie money, meaning they would get another year of seasoning, rather than being cut.
Our LBs are also young and cheap. Only Davis-Gaither would save us much with a cut and that would only be around a million. But, what if one of our flyer DEs broke out in some kind of way? Key would cost much more in dead cap space than we owe him for the coming season and his savings would just be 2.5 million. We could also save a little on Clemmons, but he is priced well for a rotational player. So the only reason I see to possibly cut an Edge, would be if both Curry and Gumbs were way ahead of schedule.
The last possible and in my mind most likely candidate is Grover. This is not meant to be a negative towards Big Grove. He’s been everything that the Colts could have ever asked from a fourth round pick out of Albany St. His value has been even more evident, when he can’t play, which has not been often. Once he broke into the starting lineup, he has only missed 11 games over seven seasons, with six of those being for a PED suspension. Our run defense is greatly effected when he is not out there.
However, he will turn 33 in October and is a free agent at the end of this season. The Colts could save 12 million if he is cut and that would only see a Dead Cap hit of 2 million. Would the Colts retain him if he wouldn’t be 100% for the season? 34 years old is not ancient on the defensive interior, but that is what he will be when asking for a new contract at the end of this season. I see no one on the roster who would beat him out for playing time, especially since Grove may not see the field during the preseason. He’s earned the role, so it would take an injury to even consider not retaining him for the 2026 season. This is no matter how good Wooden might look in camp or pre-season games.
On offense, I do not see an offensive line scenario that results in a cut. Even if Farmer emerged to take a spot from someone, you need your depth and our depth is cheaply under control. I guess Mallory could emerge to a point where Ogletree or MAC were expendable, but his rise would have to be in the form of blocking, which doesn’t appear to part of his game. We also do not look to be in position to cut WRs for any reason other than seeing them not be good enough to make the team.
Taylor was discussed earlier and only an injury would see his value plummet. I think the Colts hope that a reserve can step into the the 3rd down/take a breath RB role, but it is a nearly non existent thought that we have a back on our roster that could over take Taylor as the lead back. Keeping him fresh becomes even more critical as he enters his 7th season, so finding a solid backup is far more important than trying to replace his contributions on the field.
I’m not sure that even if Jones reinjured his achilles and was deemed out for the season, he would be cut? We have an out for the 2027 season, but that carries a 35 million Dead Cap hit. Cutting him would leave you with whomever emerges from the AR/Leonard battle. If it is AR, you have to use the Franchise Tag to retain him, which may look like 50 million in a year. Or, you pay Leonard a million to be your starter and retain Jones in the event that he could play in 2027.
Leonard is the only one who I see who could emerge to the point that you started rethinking the position. This is not a Riley love piece, it is a what if? In the case of that re-injury to DJ, it is possible that Ballard and Steichen draw their line in the sand with anyone but AR, even if it means that he never becomes tradeable. What if Leonard stays within himself and improves with reps? Maybe Rivers is retained as a consultant after his high school team’s season is complete? If the D is as improved as is necessary for any form of a successful season, it is not impossible that Leonard could emerge as a viable starter.
I’ve asked the question, “Do the Colts have any unexpected cuts?” and I have basically talked it out to the point of surmising that the best chance of this happening would need to be an injury to Grover or JT. The emergence of Leonard could shake up the QB room, but that would take an injury to DJ to even become a possibility and it probably doesn’t change the room this year.
I guess one last possibility is that Jones misses “a little time”, to make sure he is 100% to start his season. In the event that Leonard won the QB1 role over AR, he could be deemed as the only needed QB behind a healthy Jones. This could see the Colts cut AR, or take the pittance that teams are willing to send our way in trade.
Do you see a different pathway to an unexpected cut this year?
