Kentucky Basketball is about to face a massive road challenge Saturday night at Bud Walton Arena vs. John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Wildcats are looking to right the ship after yet another Nashville nightmare. After winning five straight and giving us hope, the Cats (14-7, 5-3) find themselves right back in the muddy middle of the SEC pack following that 25-point loss to Vanderbilt.
And because the basketball gods have a twisted sense of humor, the man waiting for them in Fayetteville
is none other than John Calipari. Calipari (16-5, 6-2) has his Razorbacks rolling, looking to extend their winning streak to four games. While two of those wins were nail-biters against the bottom-dwellers of the league (a combined 8-point margin against LSU and Oklahoma, who are both 1-7), a win is a win.
For Kentucky, this is more than just a reunion. It is a desperate opportunity to get back on track and grab an elusive Quad 1 win on the road. But walking into what will be a rowdy road crowd with a fragile psyche is a dangerous proposition.
Game information
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 1
- Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
- Location: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
- Capacity: 19,368
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: Dave Pasch (play-by-play), Fran Fraschilla (analysis)
- Spread: Arkansas -6.5 (The exact line Vanderbilt was favored by…) with an over/under of 161.5 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. ESPN says Arkansas has a 60.9% chance to win.
How to watch Kentucky Basketball vs. Arkansas
Television:
- Spectrum Cable: Channel 28
- DISH Network: Channel 140
- DirecTV: Channel 206
- U-verse: Channel 160
- Online Streaming: WatchESPN, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FuboTV, Sling TV
Radio:
- Online: Stream live at UKAthletics.com or on iHeartRadio via WLAP 630.
- Local FM/AM Stations:
- Lexington: 98.1 FM / 630 WLAP
- Louisville: 840 AM WHAS
- London: 103.9 FM WWEL
- Hazard/Pikeville: 101.1 WSGS
- Madisonville: 93.9 FM WKTG
The matchup: By the numbers
If you like defense, you might want to cover your eyes when Arkansas has the ball. The Hogs are an offensive juggernaut compared to Kentucky right now.
Offensive Comparison:
- Points Per Game: Arkansas 89.3 | Kentucky 81.2
- Effective FG%: Arkansas 56.8% | Kentucky 53.5%
- Assists Per Game: Arkansas 17.6 | Kentucky 16.4
Defensive Comparison:
- Opponent PPG: Arkansas 77.2 | Kentucky 70.8
- Opponent EFG%: Arkansas 50.5% | Kentucky 47.5%
- Blocks Per Game: Arkansas 4.8 | Kentucky 4.9
Kentucky actually has the better defensive metrics on paper, but that is where numbers can be really deceiving. After giving up infinite open layups and 3’s to Vanderbilt, the team will have to get back to the rigid defense they had been playing before Nashville. Arkansas shoots nearly 57% eFG, meaning if Kentucky is lazy on rotations again, the Hogs will score 90+ with highlight reel jams.
Players to watch
The Arkansas Backcourt: Darius Acuff Jr. & Meleek Thomas will lead the charge.
- Darius Acuff Jr. is a monster. He is averaging 22.6 points and 6.6 assists per game in conference play. He is the engine. He gets downhill, he creates, and he scores at will.
- Meleek Thomas is right behind him with 15.1 points per game.
- The Ex-Cat: D.J. Wagner is struggling, averaging just 5.4 points in conference play. But we all know how the ex-player curse works. Expect him to have his best game of the season just because he sees blue jerseys. He sure was happy after winning in Lexington last season.
The Kentucky Frontcourt: This is a more traditional matchup than Vanderbilt. Arkansas plays real bigs like Malique Ewin (11.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Trevon Brazile (10.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg). Vandy put Kentucky’s bigs in a blender by stepping out and shooting 3s. Arkansas will bang inside more, which should favor Kentucky’s personnel, but they have to be physical.
Keys to the Game
1. Stop the Bleeding on Defense: Arkansas scores nearly 90 points a game. Kentucky just gave up on defense against Vandy. If the Cats don’t communicate on switches and stop straight-line drives, Acuff and Thomas will live in the paint.
2. The Mental Battle: Kentucky is a 6.5-point underdog. That is the exact number Vanderbilt was favored by. We saw how that movie ended. Is this team mentally tough enough to handle a hostile crowd and a Hall of Fame coach who wants nothing more than to embarrass them? Or will they fold the moment Arkansas goes on an 8-0 run?
3. Attack the Glass: One area where Kentucky has a slight edge is rebounding (38.2 to 36.8). They had that same perceived edge against Vandy, and we saw how that worked out. But again, this is a chance for them to assert their dominance against an Arkansas that isn’t elite on the defensive glass. Kentucky needs to generate second-chance points because it likely won’t win a pure shootout.
Prediction
Haslametrics (82-75), KenPom (84-77), EvanMiya (84-79), and BartTorvik (86-77) all have Arkansas winning.
My Take: I actually think Kentucky matches up better with Arkansas than they did with Vanderbilt. The Razorbacks are more traditional, which allows Kentucky’s bigs to stay closer to the rim. However, the Arkansas wings (Acuff, Thomas, Richmond, Knox) are athletic and aggressive. They could get into the lane all night long against Kentucky’s porous perimeter defense.
A focused Kentucky team keeps this close. But I don’t think this team is focused. They are reeling from the shellacking in Nashville, and I don’t trust their mental toughness in this environment. Calipari gets his revenge. He goes 2-0 against his old school.
Prediction: Arkansas 85, Kentucky 71.
Send us your score predictions in the comments section!
