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Mailbags are a fun time, especially when the people being asked the questions are in the know. Usually, this refers to the beat writers that are around the team every day and have the sources and inside knowledge to give answers that are well informed. So when someone like Matt Gelb asks for questions and gives answers, we tend to stand up and take notice.
In his latest mailbag, Gelb had a question about the team’s payroll and where it could land in 2026. His full answer is worth a read.
It’ll be similar to where 2025 landed, and perhaps a tick lower — at least to begin the season…So a conservative estimate would have the Phillies spending almost $100 million more on player payroll in 2025 (including tax) than they did in 2024. No one should expect a similar year-to-year increase from 2025 to 2026.
But there are factors at play. The biggest, perhaps, are potential changes to the sport’s financial structure beginning in 2027. There will be a new collective bargaining agreement (at some point). Assuming there is no salary cap in an eventual agreement, clubs can expect the luxury tax thresholds to rise because they have in every new basic agreement. The league is determined to centralize local TV revenues; that will affect clubs like the Phillies, who have one of the more favorable rights deals in baseball.
The team’s payroll has rarely been skimpy of late. This year, they had a top five payroll in the game, something that has happened more often than not. John Middleton should be credited with giving the team the resources needed to build a consistent contender and there don’t appear to be any signs of slowing down now.
But how much is too much for even the ownership group to stomach? What should the payroll be for this upcoming season?
As Gelb said, there are factors at play. The upcoming CBA negotiations are one, but so is the need to get to the World Series. It does seem to drive a lot of the decision making Middleton does on how much money to spend. But how much should be spent? What should a realistic budget look like? Vote above and we’ll check the results this week.
