MSU will take the field at Spartan Stadium this Saturday for another night game. That may be the only similarity between the first two games as the Boston College Eagles are going to be a much tougher challenge for Michigan State than Western Michigan was. Also unlike last week, we actually have some footage from this season to help us analyze BC. In case you were not already aware, that footage is of Boston College’s 66-10 drubbing of the Fordham Rams.
BC Offense vs MSU Defense
Taking this with a large
grain of salt as the sample size is one game against Fordham, an FCS team coming off a 2-10 season, but it would appear that Boston College has the ability to air it out. In their opener, transfer QB Dylan Lonergan completed 26 of 34 passes (76%) for 268 yards and 4 TDs. More impressively, he did not play the whole game; his backup, Grayson James, came in and added 190 more air yards and another touchdown. That is 458 yards in the air. If you are wondering if the Eagles ever tried running the ball, according to the box score, they actually had the same number of running and passing plays with 39 each. Those 39 runs only amounted to 95 yards though, a 2.5 average.
One big question for MSU’s effort to slow down the Eagles in the air is the health of safety Nikai Martinez. Martinez missed the opener against Western but started every game last season and was expected to be a starter again this year. In his place, Armorion Smith got the start next to Malik Spencer. Smith showed up in the box score with one tackle but also was given a 51.7 by PFF for his performance, 2nd lowest on the MSU defense (by 0.1). Not surprisingly, perhaps, the four lowest grades on the D were members of the secondary. For what it’s worth, Coach Smith believes it is likely at this point that Martinez will play this weekend.
The front seven of the Spartan defense was much better. Against the Broncos run, MSU only allowed 1.2 YPC. We will need that kind of a performance to make Boston College one dimensional as we may need the linebackers to help by dropping into coverage. Based on some of what we saw in week 1, there could be some skill in that area; Wayne Matthews had the interception while freshman Brady Pretzlaff got his hands on a pass.
For BC, their best skill position player is WR Lewis Bond. That name should be familiar. He caught the winning touchdown in last year’s contest. In 2024, he had 689 reception yards and a 10.3 average. In the opener against Fordham, he went for 138 yards on 11 catches, a 12.5 average. But plenty other guys contributed. Dawson Pough caught 3 for 96 yards, VJ Wilkins brought in a 55-yarder, and Jeremiah Franklin and Luke McLaughlin had 50 and 49 yards, respectively. I am not expecting MSU to give up over 450 in the air, but I do expect them to have their hands full.
On the ground, their lead back is Turbo Richard. He got that nickname when he was 9. He scored his first career touchdown against MSU last season and kicked off this year with a 48-yard performance and a score. He is the guy the Spartans need to corral in order to make BC one-dimensional.
MSU Offense vs BC Defense
Boston College also lines up primarily in a 4-2-5 formation on defense. This may be the standard at this point with the proliferation of the aerial game and the need for more speed as opposed to bulk. As I mentioned in the schedule primer, safety KP Price and LB Daveon Crouch are the top guys. Against Fordham, appropriately, they were the leading tacklers. Crouch even had a pick-six.
BC is still trying to put together its defensive line, which should mean another strong day on the ground for the Spartans. Last week, Makhi Frazier and Brandon Tullis combined for 155 yards and 2 TDs; they both averaged 7.4 YPC. In total, not including Aidan Chiles 10 recorded carries, MSU had 34 running plays. There is no point in mentioning that the Eagles only surrendered 16 rushing yards on 27 carries last week because that was against Fordham. MSU will present a different type of challenge.
And that will be needed because questions still remain on Chiles after week 1. Sure he completed a high percentage of his throws, nearly 75%, but he also put the ball on the ground twice and missed his target on a number of his deeper passes. The Eagles return the majority of their starting secondary from a team that had 17 interceptions in 2024, 7th nationally. Against Western, Omari Kelly and Nick Marsh had 12 of MSU’s 17 receptions. Against the stout BC secondary, Chiles is going to need to succeed in spreading it around a little better. If that happens, we can consider that a step forward for our quarterback.
Look for Michigan State to try to establish control at the line of scrimmage to get the run game going early and often. MSU needs to utilize the run to set up the pass, which lines up favorably with the weaker part of the Boston College defense. If they can do that and not make Chiles have to win the game for us, it will be a much more comfortable day for MSU fans.
Special Teams
BC has the alliterative Luca Lombardo as their kicker. He made his only attempt last week as well as his only attempt in 2024, so he has never missed a three-pointer. He did miss one extra point in 2024, but he was an adequate 9 for 9 against Fordham.
For the Spartans, there is a possibility that they get Martin Connington back this week while Tarik Ahmetbasic is more of a longshot. Getting one of the two back could be instrumental as it is clear that the MSU coaching staff do not trust Blake Sislo for anything longer than an extra point. Last week, punter Ryan Eckley was brought in for a 46-yard FG, but his kick went about a section and a half wide left.
Let’s hope MSU does not need to rely on a late field goal to win this game.
Conclusion
There are a lot of nervous Spartans right now, myself included. My hope is that the home field advantage in a night game early in the season plays a big part. Even as a betting man, I cannot say what I think is going to happen in this game. The strength of both offenses, at least as we have seen from one game, is going against the weakness of the opposing defense. This game will come down to which side can take more advantage of their respective mismatch.
