Grant Holmes’ starts this season are getting to be a bit like a choose-your-adventure book where no matter what choices you make, the story ends up the same.
He hasn’t had a truly disastrous start in terms of putting the team in a hole this season, getting charged with more than three runs just once (five on May 1 at Colorado). In fact, he’s been charged with exactly two or three runs in well more than half of his appearances (13 of his 20).
That’s not bad on its face, but it’s a stat that becomes
worse when you realize he’s thrown six innings just three times just once in his last 16 outings after doing so twice in his first three starts of the season.
His last four starts have been exactly five innings, and he didn’t make it through five innings in the four appearances before that. With a depleted rotation and a bullpen that the team treats as taxed due to shorter-than-preferred outings by the rotation, Holmes-as-starter is part of the problem rather than part of the solution.
He’s got a 3.79 ERA (89 ERA-), which is very nice, but a 4.82 FIP (116 FIP-) and a 4.63 xFIP (109 xFIP-), which are both below-average marks. Essentially, he’s been continuing to get away with it, at least to a degree, helped in part by the strong defense behind him. That the Braves have continued to need to rely on him as heavily as they have through the first four months of the season drills home their need to add one, if not two starters before the August 3 Trade Deadline.
In a perfect world where Atlanta had a healthy Spencer Schwellenbach and A.J. Smith-Shawver, Holmes’ role would likely have been different. A rash of in-season starter injuries during the season have only amplified the Braves’ need to consistently throw Holmes out there as a starter every five or six days. But no one who follows the Braves feels any more confident about Holmes being tasked with starting a playoff game than they did at the start of the season.
And yet, pending a few ongoing rehabilitations, that could be the case as things currently stand considering Holmes’ ERA is third-best on the team among starters behind only Chris Sale and Martín Pérez. (In theory, the Braves shouldn’t even consider that given how much worse his peripherals are… but…)
Holmes has served his role this season. He’ll continue to serve a role once the Trade Deadline has passed, But his five-inning outing in Friday’s 7-6 win over Baltimore where he allowed three on six hits was more proof of this critical starter role not being what would best serve the Braves as the stretch run approaches.
The sad thing is, Holmes has been good, if not dominant through nine batters: a 2.98 FIP and 3.92 xFIP. In his starts so far, he’s allowed just two homers to the first nine batters, has a 48/17 K/BB ratio, and has seen four or more of the first nine batters reach base just five times in all of his starts. Even on a pure runs basis, the first nine batters have scored in just six of his starts. There’s a clear role for him that isn’t “take the ball every five days and hope that the game is still within reach by the time the team sees fit to remove him, while trying to balance their chance of winning the game against their desire to rest the bullpen.” The Braves even shunted him in that role for a little bit, before injuries pulled him back into a starting spot.
The starts expected to be made the rest of this series by Bryce Elder and Reynaldo López, who have similar problems with less obvious solutions, are likely to only add more fuel to the fire of the Braves’ need to make a starter move (or two).
