The Dallas Cowboys head into Thursday night’s matchup with Tampa Bay at 2-2 after CeeDee Lamb put together one of the best games in Cowboys history against Houston. Now, the Cowboys face a Buccaneers team that is 0-4 but has a defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed.
There are plenty of reasons to like what Dallas can do on Thursday night, particularly with Baker Mayfield sidelined and Tampa Bay preparing to start rookie Jalon Daniels for the second time in his career. But there
are also a couple of Cowboys who deserve a closer look after the first month of the season. Here are this week’s buys and sells.
Buy: WR CeeDee Lamb
At this point, why would you bet against him? Lamb is coming off a ridiculous performance against Houston in which he caught 17 passes for 189 yards and the game-winning touchdown, helping Dallas overcome a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the Texans 34-30.
It was not just another big game from Lamb. It was the kind of performance where the Cowboys knew exactly where they wanted to go with the football, Houston knew where the ball was going, and the Texans still couldn’t stop it.
Lamb has now caught 37 passes for 498 yards and four touchdowns through four games, leading the NFL in both receptions and receiving yards. He is averaging 13.5 yards per reception while accounting for a massive portion of Dak Prescott’s production.
Against Houston, Prescott targeted Lamb on 21 of the 45 routes he ran, the highest target rate for any receiver running 45 or fewer routes in the Next Gen Stats era. Brian Schottenheimer also moved Lamb around the formation, allowing him to create mismatches both outside and from the slot.
That is the formula Dallas should continue using. The Buccaneers have allowed three straight opponents to finish with 285 yards or fewer, and their defense ranks fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed. This isn’t necessarily a matchup where Lamb is going to catch 17 passes again, but Tampa is also going to be without starting safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who suffered a rib fracture against Green Bay.
If Lamb is already playing at this level, Dallas shouldn’t be looking for reasons to get him less involved. It should be looking for different ways to get him the football and force Tampa to adjust. After four weeks, CeeDee Lamb isn’t simply having a hot stretch. He’s been a driving force in what has been, up to this point, a very efficient and capable offense.
Sell: TE Jake Ferguson
Holy moly what is going on with Fergie? His blocking has become increasingly difficult to overlook. Ferguson caught three of four targets for 11 yards against Houston (granted one was a crucial fourth-down catch), but the bigger concern was what he did, or failed to do, as a blocker. He spent much of the afternoon chipping against Houston’s edge rushers, and there were multiple moments where his technique and effort left Dallas’ offense in difficult positions.
That has become a larger issue because Ferguson isn’t being asked to be a traditional pass-catching tight end who can occasionally contribute as a blocker. Dallas relies on him to do both. The Cowboys have a quarterback in Prescott who is playing at a high level, a receiver in Lamb who is virtually impossible to contain right now, and a running back in Javonte Williams who has already shown he can be a major part of the offense. If Dallas is going to get the most out of all three, the blocking from its tight ends has to be reliable.
Instead, Ferguson has had too many snaps where he either misses the assignment entirely or makes contact without doing enough to actually finish the block. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are going to use multiple methods to create pressure, and their defense has held three consecutive opponents to 285 yards or fewer. Tampa’s pass rush could be a problem for Dallas, and the Cowboys cannot afford to make it easier by allowing preventable pressure through missed blocks.
Ferguson is still an important part of this offense, and he has shown he can make plays as a receiver. But the Cowboys need more consistency from him as a complete tight end, particularly with the defense likely to make Prescott and the passing game work for every yard. Ferguson is a sell.
Buy: Cowboys defensive secondary
This is probably the most optimistic buy of the week, but the circumstances are finally lining up for Dallas’ secondary to make some plays. Through four games, the Cowboys have yet to record an interception, and their defense has allowed the third-most yards in the NFL. That is obviously not a recipe for success, particularly when the pass rush has struggled to generate consistent pressure and sacks.
But Thursday presents a much more favorable situation. Baker Mayfield, and his innate ability to extend plays, is out with his thumb injury, meaning Tampa will turn to rookie Jalon Daniels for his second career start. Daniels threw for 148 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay last week, but he also threw two interceptions in the first half.
That is where Dallas’ secondary finally has an opportunity to make some plays. The Cowboys have added Joey Porter Jr., who is expected to play in his second game with Dallas after being acquired from Pittsburgh. Porter isn’t going to magically solve every problem in the secondary, but, as we saw on Sunday, his presence gives Dallas another legitimate outside corner who can play aggressively without necessarily requiring constant safety help.
Tampa’s passing game has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. The Buccaneers rank 28th in passing offense at 172.3 yards per game, while their offense ranks 28th overall at 278.3 yards per game. Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin remain legitimate weapons, but the Bucs are asking a rookie quarterback to operate that offense against a Dallas defense that desperately needs to create its first interception. Dallas has been waiting four games for its first interception. Thursday feels like as good an opportunity as any to finally get one.
Sell: LB DeMarvion Overshown
This is a different kind of sell this week, because we know that DeMarvion Overshown isn’t playing due to injury. This is more about questioning whether his current role is the best fit for what Dallas needs at linebacker.
Jaishawn Barham has emerged as one of Dallas’ more consistent linebackers during the first month of the season, and he currently leads the Cowboys with 25 tackles alongside Dee Winters.
Overshown has a unique skill set, particularly as a player who can attack downhill, rush the passer and move around the formation. The problem is that the Cowboys need stability at the second level of their defense, and Overshown’s continued availability questions make that difficult to count on.
There is also a legitimate question about whether his leaner build is ideal for consistently playing inside against NFL-sized offensive linemen and downhill running games. When you’re repeatedly taking on blocks in the middle of an NFL defense, those extra pounds can matter and Overshown just might not be cut out for interior LB play.
The bigger question for Dallas is whether Barham has simply done enough to make the decision more complicated. If the rookie continues playing at a high level while Overshown struggles to stay healthy, the Cowboys may have to consider whether Barham has earned a larger role even when everyone is available.
