As we reach the final stretch of conference play, there is still a lot to play for in the Mountain West: the conference title, bowl positioning, the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy and, remarkably, likely a first time champion. Neither New Mexico nor North Dakota State has ever won an MWC title. Air Force earned a share of the 2004 regular-season crown and reached the 2015 title game; Wyoming won the regular season in 2001 and made the title game in 2016, both lost the title game. No matter who lifts
the trophy next month, history will likely be made.
This week on Stats Corner, we look at the probability of each team still in the conference title race and what each needs to happen over the final weeks.
Five teams are mathematically eliminated: Nevada, San Jose State, Hawaii, Northern Illinois, and UTEP. The Huskies and Miners won’t be going bowling; Hawaii needs to win out just to reach six wins, with roughly a 9% chance of getting there.
#1) New Mexico 4-0 in MWC — 66% Chance of Winning the Conference
Remaining games and win probabilities:
- @ Nevada — 81.0%
- vs. UNLV — 81.5%
- @ Wyoming — 88.8%
- vs. Air Force — 81.3%
The Lobos’ last conference title came in 1964, as WAC co-champions and they’re nationally ranked for the first time in school history. At 7-1 they are guaranteed a bowl berth, with an outside shot at the playoff picture, they need Boise State to lose. They’re favored in all four remaining games; win out and they host the conference title game. Crucially, the Lobos already beat North Dakota State, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the only other two-loss contender.
#2) North Dakota State 4-2 in MWC — 20% Chance
Remaining games and win probabilities:
- @ Hawaii — 63.9%
- vs. Northern Illinois — 95.0%
- @ San Jose State — 74.5%
The Bison have two conference losses (UNLV and New Mexico), so why are they second? Two reasons. First, they’re heavy favorites in their final three games none harder than a road trip to Honolulu. Second, UNLV plays Wyoming this week, so one of the one-loss teams is guaranteed a second loss.
NDSU has made serious noise in its first FBS and MWC season, and like New Mexico, has secured its bowl eligibility at six wins. But the math is stark: to take the regular-season title, the Bison need the Lobos to lose three of their final four the head-to-head tiebreaker leaves no other path.
#3) UNLV 3-1 in MWC — 8% Chance
Remaining games and win probabilities:
- vs. Wyoming — 79.2%
- @ New Mexico — 18.5%
- @ San Jose State — 68.8%
- vs. Nevada — 70.1%
For a team with conference title and playoff aspirations, this season has been a bit of a disappointment. But the path exists: win out which means winning at New Mexico, the only game in which they’d be an underdog and then hope the Lobos stumble elsewhere. With only one conference loss (against Air Force) and a win over North Dakota State, a three-way tie at the top, excluding the Falcons, would break in the Rebels’ favor.
#4) Air Force 3-2 in MWC — 4% Chance
Remaining games and win probabilities:
- @ Army — 35.0%
- vs. San Jose State — 79.2%
- vs. UTEP — 94.5%
- @ New Mexico — 18.7%
The other of three MWC teams already bowl-eligible, the Falcons have plenty to play for, starting with the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy this weekend against Army. But the conference math is brutal: with losses already to North Dakota State and Wyoming, Air Force must win out a single additional conference loss eliminates them. Here’s the rooting guide:
- Root against New Mexico (4-0 in conference): Air Force hosts the Lobos in the finale, so beating them directly hands New Mexico a loss. But the Falcons also need New Mexico to drop at least one earlier game (Nevada, UNLV, or San Jose State) to fall into reach.
- Root against Wyoming (4-1): Wyoming owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Air Force, so the Cowboys must lose at least one more conference game to drop below a 5-2 finish.
- Root against UNLV (3-1): This one’s in Air Force’s favor the Falcons beat the Rebels 41-31 on October 17, so if both finish tied at 5-2, Air Force wins the two-way tiebreaker outright.
In short: Air Force needs perfection plus help. That’s what 4% looks like.
#5) Wyoming 4-1 in MWC— 1% Chance
Remaining games and win probabilities:
- @ UNLV — 20.8%
- @ UTEP — 75.2%
- vs. New Mexico — 11.2%
- Non-conference: vs. UCONN — 38.1%
With only one conference loss, Wyoming’s path to the title is the clearest in the league: win out and it’s yours. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are heavy underdogs in the two games that matter most at UNLV and at home against New Mexico which is why the model gives them just 1%. The good news: a bowl berth should be secured well before the season ends.
