BVB are due for a four-game stretch of back-to-back away games starting from Tuesday evening, but first they must face sixth-place FC Köln at the Westfalenstadion in the late Saturday game. After dropping
points against RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich, Dortmund returned to winning ways on Tuesday against FC København in the Champions League. Now they have the opportunity to put more points on the board in the Bundesliga. But a home tie against a newly-promoted side won’t be quite as easy as it sounds, with FC Köln looking like the real deal.
Köln have wasted no time on their return to the Bundesliga this season, claiming big wins over Freiburg and Hoffenheim, and even giving Stuttgart a run for their money. Now they will look to claim their biggest scalp of their season so far as they look to pick up points against Borussia Dortmund.
Player to Watch: Said El Mala
FC Köln’s 19-year-old wunderkind has played less than half the available minutes in the Bundesliga so far this season, but El Mala has still put up three goals and one assist in that time and attracted plenty of interest with his performances. He looks like the real deal. So much so that Said El Mala has dominated the headlines since Köln returned to the top flight.
Who knows whether El Mala will start for Effzeh this weekend, but BVB will have their hands full with him whenever he does get on the pitch. What makes FC Köln’s flying start to life back in the Bundesliga especially impressive is that they are getting goals from multiple sources. El Mala has been brilliant off the bench, but Jakub Kamiński, Jan Thielmann, and Luca Waldschmidt have all chipped in, while Marius Bülter is back from injury and will be looking to build on the two goals and three assists he has contributed since joining his new club.
FC Köln will certainly go in as underdogs on Saturday evening, but BVB should not take them lightly. They are more than capable of claiming a big scalp if given the opportunity.
Predicted Lineup
Niko Kovač has said he will rotate the starting eleven against Köln, but with plenty of options, it is difficult to know what that might look like. I have made four changes to my predicted lineup, but it is very possible the starting eleven will look completely different on Saturday.
The biggest change is at the top of the pitch. Reports have suggested that Serhou Guirassy is still dealing with a thigh injury that he picked up before the international break, and this could present an opportunity for Fabio Silva to get his first start as a BVB player. I think Kovač will take the opportunity to give Guirassy a rest and reward Silva’s good form.
Elsewhere, I think Niklas Süle will be given the start over Waldemar Anton on Saturday, in part to give Süle the opportunity to get minutes, but also because Anton has struggled recently, while Karim Adeyemi will come in for Maximilian Beier after Beier failed to impress against København. The change that feels like the biggest punt of all, however, is Carney Chukwuemeka replacing Julian Brandt. I am in no way certain that Chukwuemeka will start against Köln. I hope he starts, because he is brilliant every time he is on the pitch. If he is healthy enough to start, I also don’t doubt that Kovač would run him out from the get-go. But Chukwuemeka’s health is a huge unknown. There’s every chance he can’t handle the minutes and Brandt gets the nod instead.
Kovač could also opt to swap out either Felix Nmecha or Jobe Bellingham for Marcel Sabitzer, but I suspect he will reward Jobe’s good performance against København with another start, and if so, I think he will stick with Nmecha to avoid asking too much of Jobe. Julian Ryerson could also get a shot in place of Daniel Svensson or Yan Couto, but in this case, I opted for both to retain their place as they are a little more offensive than Ryerson.
Match Prediction
Once again, I’m going to take this opportunity to promote my Bundesliga simulation model, Predicting Ball. The model gives BVB a 63.1% probability of victory, and it projects that Dortmund will put up 1.99 xG to FC Köln’s 0.96. So, who am I to argue? I’m going for a Dortmund 2-1 win.
Your Thoughts?
Who will get the nod for BVB on Saturday? And what is your prediction for the game? Let us know in the comments.
