Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, October 4 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN+
- Location: Rice Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: Rice (-4.5)
- Over/under: 54.5
- All-time series: Rice leads, 3-2
- Last meeting: Rice 24, Florida Atlantic 21 — November 25, 2023
- Current streak: Rice, 1 (2023)
Setting the scene
There will be more Owls in Houston, TX on Saturday night than an ornithologist could ever dream of. The Rice Owls (3-2, 1-1 American) and Florida Atlantic Owls (1-3, 0-1 American) meet in primetime at Rice Stadium
in a meeting between first-year head coaches. It’s an interesting stylistic clash as Zach Kittley leads Florida Atlantic’s air raid offense while Scott Abell counters with Rice’s spread option attack.
Florida Atlantic Owls outlook
Florida Atlantic is 0-3 against FBS opponents this year and experienced three double-digit losses. The Owls were within striking distance for a home upset over Memphis last week, cutting the deficit to 31-26 in the early fourth quarter. However, a barrage of misfortune transpired and the Tigers pounced on them with a 24-0 finishing run.
FAU still remains in search of its first conference win under Zach Kittley, and the Owls will lean on the 34-year old first-time head coach’s offensive philosophy to get that coveted victory. They throw more than anybody else in the FBS at 52.3 times per game, when Hawaii ranks second nationally with 44.8 attempts. Leading the charge is WKU transfer quarterback Caden Veltkamp. The reigning CUSA Offensive Player of the Year rides a three-game streak of 300-yard performances, and his arm will be heavily utilized in every outing.
His top receiver from WKU Easton Messer also made the journey southeast to Florida Atlantic this offseason. Despite only playing four games, Messer is fifth in the FBS with 37 receptions, cashing those in for 363 yards and a touchdown. Jayshon Platt is the Owls’ other supreme receiver, and Veltkamp is expected to target both options many times this Saturday.
But when playing a run-heavy offense like Rice, it’s important to ground the ball at times to keep the defense rested. However, FAU lead running back Gemari Sands is day-to-day with an ankle injury suffered vs. Memphis, likely thrusting Xavier Terrell into the lead back role in an offense where the ground game often takes a backseat. However, the unit’s greatest issue is its turnover tendencies. FAU ranks dead last in the FBS in turnover margin at -8 with nine interceptions thrown and one fumble lost through just four outings.
The defense has only compiled two turnovers thus far, and creating such havoc plays will be an emphasis going forward. Against a run-heavy attack, the Owls will be fortunate to trot out Leon Hart Jr. who did not face a suspension from the league office. Hart was ejected from the Memphis game due to a “flagrant foul,” but FAU will be able to lean on the services of the linebacker with 24 stops and 2.5 tackles for loss.
Saturday will be largely about run defense. Florida Atlantic surrendered 291 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns to Memphis a week ago, currently ranking 113th in the country in stopping the run game. It’s a varying scheme from Memphis though, and FAU’s defensive backs must have strong eye discipline and not fall for decoy pre-snap motions.
Rice Owls outlook
Rice’s inaugural year under Scott Abell is going swimmingly. The Owls started the year with a bang by generating a road upset at Louisiana and they started conference play 1-0 thanks to another road victory at Charlotte. Rice suffered a minor setback last week against undefeated Navy, but the Owls produced a late 10-0 run — falling with a more respectable score of 21-13.
The main attraction this year at Rice is the new option offense. The Owls rank 21st in the FBS at 221 rushing yards per game and only Army and Navy ground it more times per game than Abell’s crew. Unlike those service academies, Rice operates with a spread shotgun formation, bringing a unique flare to the offense. Quarterback Chase Jenkins and running backs Quinton Jackson and Daelen Alexander are the primary ball-carriers leading the effort. Jackson is the team’s leading rusher with 353 yards, and his sheer speed is highlighted in this system.
Speed is one of Rice’s greatest assets and another player that possesses that attribute is slot receiver Aaron Turner. Turner is good for an occasional jet sweep, and he averages 8.4 yards per rush with two touchdowns on the year. The UConn and Cincinnati transfer also doubles as one of two primary targets in the passing game, splitting that duty alongside Drayden Dickmann who has team-highs of 18 receptions, 168 yards, and two receiving touchdowns.
But Rice doesn’t make its mark through the air. No FBS team averages fewer passing yards per game than the Owls’ 84. It is an efficient unit with a completion rate of 68.9 percent, but there isn’t a great degree of verticality when Rice drops back to throw. That lack of verticality can derail third-and-long situations, and Rice is tied for 104th in the FBS in third down conversion percentage at 33.3.
The Owls’ greatest asset is its defense. The Owls are 50th in scoring defense and 54th in total defense, and that’s after facing two of the current 20 undefeated teams — Houston and Navy. There is strong backfield pressure from the unit. Michael Daley has 4.0 sacks as the chief pass rusher while Ty Morris has 33 tackles and 2.0 sacks as a forceful outside linebacker.
A revamped secondary is also performing at a high standard. This is the group that faces the toughest challenge against a pass-heavy FAU, but Rice counters with an elite aerial defense. The Owls rank fifth nationally with an opponent completion percentage of 51.1 and cornerback Khary Crump is a major reason behind that percentage. The Michigan State transfer cornerback features a team-high six pass breakups as he prepares for an opponent which throws over 50 times per game.
Prediction
This clash of styles should produce a close finish. Florida Atlantic’s offense features the ability to produce more explosive plays thanks to a high-powered passing attack led by Caden Veltkamp and a capable receiving corps. Moving the sticks isn’t FAU’s issue — turnovers are. Rice’s passing defense is no joke, but Zach Kittley’s offense has moved the ball well all year as long as turnovers don’t play a major factor.
Rice’s option offense needs to take another step forward. The Owls are 114th in scoring at 20.4 points per game, and they’ve been limited to 14 points or fewer in three of four games vs. FBS competition. With Rice’s defense as the driving force, this one has the makings of a low-scoring game. FAU’s offense provides one extra score behind Veltkamp’s veteran arm to escape with a road victory.
Prediction: Florida Atlantic 20, Rice 17
