As you probably saw Sunday, the NCAA brackets were announced, and the general reaction was that Duke got screwed and also that Duke got the toughest bracket, and it’s not fair.
To which we say: meh.
Look, we get the argument that the #1 seed is supposed to have earned the easiest bracket, and in the East, Duke sees #16 Siena, and then will face the 8/9 winner, either Ohio State or TCU.
The second weekend, assuming Duke advances, they would see either #5 St. John’s or #12 Northern Iowa, and then vs.
the winner of #4 Kansas and #13 California Baptist.
On the bottom side of the bracket, #6 Louisville gets a potentially tough draw in #11 South Florida, and the winner will face either #3 Michigan State or #14 North Dakota State.
In the final pod, #7 UCLA takes on #10 UCF, and will play the winner of #2 UConn and #15 Furman.
On the surface, you see Ohio State, TCU, St. John’s, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan State, UCLA, and UConn.
And they’re all good.
But here’s the thing: at best, Duke can only play four of them, starting with Siena on Thursday. Assuming Duke beats Siena, that means they’ll get either Ohio State or TCU to finish the first round on Saturday.
Assuming they win there, the following weekend, they’d most likely face either St. John’s or Kansas, and in the regional finals, should they make it, they’d most likely face Michigan State, UCLA, or UConn.
For argument’s sake, let’s say that Duke plays Siena, Ohio State, Kansas, and UConn.
Alternatively, let’s say it’s Siena, TCU, St. John’s, and Michigan State.
Or for one more scenario, Siena, Ohio State, St. John’s, and UConn.
Those are all successful teams, and all capable of winning, but ask yourself as a fan: you surely respect the other teams in the regional, but do any of them scare you? Duke has already beaten two of the teams in the regional. That doesn’t mean they necessarily would again, but it’s there. They know they can do it.
Of the others, UConn and St. John’s have each given the other a major beating in the last few weeks. But UConn also lost to 12-20 Marquette recently (St. John’s, on the other hand, has only lost once since January 3rd, but all of those wins were in Big East play, and the Big East is pretty weak this season).
Obviously, several of these teams are capable of beating Duke, and in the short term anyway, the Blue Devils are down two starters, and therefore more vulnerable than they would have been otherwise. Hopefully, Pat Ngongba will be back soon and that will help a lot.
But having an easier bracket only helps so much. At least theoretically, you still have to beat better teams each game, or at a minimum, the teams that are playing better.
In the end, you’re going to have to play the better teams anyway, and honestly, you should want to. Why?
Listen to your Inner K ™, because you know what it’ll say: if you focus on the unfairness of the bracket, or worry about who you might lose to…you’re focused on losing instead of winning.
And that’s…well, let’s just say, that’s stupid.
Duke is a very good team that’s already beaten the #3, #4, #8 (twice), #11, #15, #17, #21, #24 (twice), and to the #25 team in an exhibition game, and lost to the #19 team by 1 and the #21 team by 3 on a last-second shot.
Since #21 UNC beat Duke 71-68 about six weeks ago, no one scored more than 64 points against Duke until the ACC Tournament, when Florida State hit 79 and Virginia managed 70.
And again, Duke won those games despite being down two starters, showing immense heart and resilience. Against Florida State, remember, Jon Scheyer put Cameron Boozer at the point, and when Cayden Boozer was ready to step up on Friday and Saturday, he ran the point.
In other words, they adapted.
We can’t say that they’ll beat every team they face. No one can promise that. But will they play hard? Will they get the most out of what they have? When this is over, will Duke fans be proud of this team?
The answer to all three of those questions is going to be yes, and it’s going to take a very good game by anyone to beat them. If someone else is better, then so be it. Only the best teams advance, and if Duke is one of those, it will. If not?
It’s been a wonderful year.
So who cares what the NCAA does?
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