Win 10, lose three, win 10, lose three. Win 10 again? Unlikely. But one of the more curious 26 game stretches we’ve ever seen has just concluded. What will be next? We can’t know. But the schedule doesn’t ease up. This Braves team is no joke. Coming off of a down season, experts were divided as to if they would bounce back. But bounce back they have. Having won a series in Los Angeles from the Dodgers over the weekend and now beating the Cubs, this team is showing that their hot start is no fluke.
That isn’t to say the Cubs are just screwed for the next two days. But, there will be no easy wins in this series. The White Sox after that are a less elite team, but a team that has at least reached pesky or annoying this year. And a team that takes a little extra joy any time they can stick it to the Cubs. And they aren’t the only team that feels like that. The Brewers teams that the Cubs play after the White Sox can also be described that same way. At this point, rumors of their demise seem to have been premature. Color me 100 percent not surprised by that one.
I’ve been trying to think of a rational way to talk about the start that the Cubs have had. We have a blind spot at baseball fans. I thought of an example. On May 1, Ildemaro Vargas had four hits in four at bats against the Cub. At the end of the day, he had a .404/.429/.702 line. With 100 percent certainty, all of us looked at that and said this is totally unsustainable. Even if Vargas had maybe made some tweaks during this, his age 34 season, he just wasn’t going to go from a .671 OPS to a 1.131 OPS.
But what if Shohei Ohtani had that exact same start? He’s a four-time MVP (and one time runner up). Over the last three seasons, he has an OPS of 1.037. In this, his age 31 season, we’d think it would be unlikely for him to take another step forward. But we wouldn’t dismiss it would we?
The analogy breaks a little. I don’t think the Cubs are either Vargas or Ohtani in this story. They fall somewhere in between. But, this is where the blind spot is for sports fans. When an ordinary player goes ballistic, we recognize it as a hot streak. But when a superstar goes ballistic, we at least pause and and wonder if they unlocked some more ability. So what does this insane streak of games for the Cubs portend for the future? This is a team that went ballistic, right? Not a team that unlocked some more potential?
I don’t necessarily think that the streaks mean nothing. Let’s say I thought that the team was going to win 90 games before the season started. I don’t necessarily think the team will go 63-57 (.525) the rest of the way to finish at 90 wins. My impression is that the team should likely play at a 90-win pace for the remainder of the season. That would get them to 93 or 94 wins. I’d probably then make that the center of my prediction range for this team. So maybe call that 91 to 96 wins. And then I’d be likely to believe they were most likely to finish in the top of that range. 94-96 wins.
That is my untested hypothesis. Call it a 95-win team. What about you? On a night where they lost their third straight, on a night when the offense was missing in action for a third straight day, can you find your way to the kind of optimism that leads to a 95-win season? Even with the three straight losses, this team is on a 104 win pace. So my projection has them going 68-52 (.566) the rest of the way. Weigh in with your thoughts of how the rest of this goes.
Not a lot to say specifically about this game. The offense did little with starter Grant Holmes and basically nothing with the bullpen. Colin Rea couldn’t hold the Braves offense down long enough. Not a lot more to say.
Three Positives:
- Good to see Alex Bregman get into one. His homer was the only Cub hit, run and run batted in.
- Michael Busch drew a pair of walks in four plate appearances.
- Jacob Webb had a scoreless inning. He struck out one.
Game 42, May 12: Braves 5, Cubs 2 (27-15)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.084). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
- Hero: Michael Busch (.071). 0-2, 2 BB
- Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.013). IP, 3 BF, K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.327). 4.1 IP, 20 BF, 7 H, BB, 5 ER, K (L 4-2)
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.092). 0-3
- Kid: Michael Conforto (-.075). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: With a runner on first and one out in the fifth inning, the game was tied when Mike Yastrzemski homered. (.230)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman homered with one out in the fourth inning, tying the game. (.126)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 41 Winner: Jameson Taillon (99 of 131 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +13
- Michael Conforto +12
- Shōta Imanaga +10
- Dansby Swanson -8
- Matt Shaw -9
- Seiya Suzuki -15
Current Win Pace: 104.14 wins
Up Next: Game two of the three-game series Wednesday night in Atlanta. Shōta Imanaga (4-2, 2.28, 47.1 IP) makes his ninth start of the year for the Cubs. He’s won his last two starts, including allowing one run over six innings to the Reds in his last start. He struck out 10 in that one. He has been better at home (1.74 vs 3.31), but his splits are pretty good everywhere. Pitching at night, he’s 2-0 with a 1.38, though it’s only 13 innings of work.
22-year-old rookie JR Ritchie (1-0, 3.63, 17.1) makes his fourth career start and appearance for the Braves. He was a compensation pick for the Braves at 35th overall in the 2022 draft. Last time out, he allowed three runs over five innings to the Mariners in Seattle. He walked six in that game while striking out two. The offense needs to get going in this one.
Get back in the win column.
Go Cubs!
