College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.
Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.
Following back-to-back losses, Ohio State must get back on the horse against Northwestern on Saturday. The Buckeyes have been spiraling
since losing Julian Sayin to injury, but it hasn’t only been quarterback play that has held them back in these two dismal performances against USC and Oregon.
Ohio State’s offense, defense and special teams have all played a role in the team’s struggles, and with one assistant coach fired already, there would likely be several more coaching changes on this current staff should the Buckeyes drop a third straight game this weekend.
Northwestern is struggling in its own right since also losing their starting quarterback, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will likely have some stuff dialed up against Ryan Day and his former team.
Football Power Index
Ohio State
- FPI: 24.3 (Rank: 5)
- Proj. W-L: 8.6-3.6
- Win Out %: 50.4
- Win Conf. %: 13.5
- CFP %: 36.1
- Make NC %: 5.9
- Win NC %: 2.9
Northwestern
- FPI: 12.2 (Rank: 31)
- Proj. W-L: 7.6-4.4
- Win Out %: 8.0
- Win Conf. %: 0
- CFP %: 1.1
- Make NC %: 0
- Win NC %: 0
FPI Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 85.4%
SP+
Ohio State
- Rank: No. 4 (down 2 from last week)
- Rating: 24.0
- Offense: 37.6 (11th)
- Defense: 13.9 (8th)
- Special Teams: 0.3 (57th)
Northwestern
- Rank: No. 33 (down 10 from last week)
- Rating: 12.4
- Offense: 32.4 (34th)
- Defense: 19.9 (31st)
- Special Teams: -0.1 (74th)
Matchup
Projected Winner: Ohio Sate
- Projected Margin: 14.2 points
- Win Probability: 81%
- Projected Score (rounded): 33-19
- *These projections are not QB adjusted*
Computer Models
Sagarin Rankings
- Ohio State: 89.90 (7th)
- Northwestern: 81.28 (30th)
The Power Rank
- Was not updated for Week 11
Massey Ratings
- Ohio State: 8.89 (7th)
- Offense: 67.48 (5th)
- Defense: 41.86 (3rd)
- Northwestern: 8.24 (29th)
- Offense: 58.84 (44th)
- Defense: 35.02 (27th)
- Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 31, Northwestern 16 (86% win probability)
Advanced Metrics
Prior Meetings
Ohio State leads the all-time matchup between the two schools, 66-14-1.
The Buckeyes have won each of the last 11 meetings dating back to 2005, most recently defeating Northwestern 31-7 at Wrigley Field in 2024.
The most recent victory for the Wildcats was a 33-27 contest in Evanston in 2004. Before that, Northwestern had not defeated Ohio State since 1971.
During their current 11-game win streak, the Buckeyes defeated Northwestern in two Big Ten Championship Games, a 22-10 win in 2020 and a 45-24 victory in 2018.
The Wildcats’ longest win streak all-time against Ohio State is three games, which took place from 1929-31. The Buckeyes’ longest win streak in this series is 24 games, from 1972-2003.
As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.
