Dallas heads to Indianapolis needing an immediate response after somehow turning a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead into a 33-30 overtime defeat against Arizona. The Colts have problems of their own, losing four straight and entering Sunday at 2-6 after being demolished 42-7 by Jacksonville. This is a game where both teams desperately need something positive before their seasons begin slipping away completely.
When Indianapolis has the ball
There should be no mystery about what Indianapolis needs to try first. Jonathan Taylor has rushed
for 610 yards and eight touchdowns, while Dallas just allowed Tyler Allgeier to produce an incredible 147 rushing yards on only 11 carries. After watching Allgeier break runs of 63 and 52 yards, Indianapolis would be foolish not to test the Cowboys on the ground immediately. Taylor remains the best player on this Colts offense and can also contribute as a receiver, so Dallas has to tackle far better than it did during that disastrous second half against Arizona.
The Cowboys’ goal should be to stop Taylor and put the game onto Daniel Jones. Jones has thrown only five touchdowns against nine interceptions, while Indianapolis owns the NFL’s worst turnover differential at minus-11. The Colts also traded All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson last week, leaving a less experienced offensive line in front of Jones.
That gives Quinnen Williams and the Dallas pass rush a real opportunity after producing five sacks against Arizona. If Dallas can force Indianapolis into obvious passing situations, this is the type of matchup where the defense should finally create pressure without constantly needing to blitz.
When Dallas has the ball
Dallas should look at the Indianapolis defense and see an opportunity to rediscover its running game. The Colts are allowing 4.9 yards per carry, and their defensive front no longer includes DeForest Buckner after he was traded to San Francisco. Dallas ran the ball 39 times against Arizona but gained only 93 yards, so simply calling more runs is not enough. Brian Schottenheimer needs to find the concepts and directions that actually create space for Javonte Williams rather than repeatedly running into crowded areas.
Establishing Williams would make life considerably easier for Dak Prescott. Dallas is still scoring 27 points per game, seventh in the NFL, while Prescott has 14 touchdowns against five interceptions. Indianapolis has only two interceptions all season and has just traded away its best interior pass rusher, so there should be opportunities if Dallas stays ahead of the chains.
CeeDee Lamb remains the obvious focal point, although Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward give Indianapolis two experienced cornerbacks capable of making the outside matchups difficult. That makes Jake Ferguson’s ankle injury particularly important but he is questionable, while George Pickens was limited by a hamstring issue.
The Cowboys cannot repeat what happened late against Arizona, when the offense had chances to put the game away but failed to finish drives. Indianapolis has conceded 23 touchdowns while scoring only 15 itself, and Jacksonville just put 42 points on this defense. Dallas should attack with balance, use play-action once Williams gets going and force a Colts defense without Buckner to defend the entire field.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (4-4)
Maybe it’s just all getting to me, but I’m starting to worry this team is fundamentally and irreparably broken. It feels good like the collapse will continue. Colts 30 Cowboys 27
Brandon Loree (5-3)
The Cowboys play the Indianapolis Colts every four years, so the last win at Lucas Oil Stadium feels like a lifetime ago.
If you go back and watch that game, I think this Sunday could have a similar formula. The Colts can’t get going on offense and have multiple turnovers, but stick around until the very end.
The Cowboys need to decide whether they’re a pass team or a run team and stick to that identity. Flipping back and forth is what’s causing this inconsistency.
It’s close, but if this Cowboys team can’t beat this version of Indy, all hope is lost. I think the Cowboys win 33-24.
Dyllan Rivers (4-4)
The floundering Cowboys take on the fire sale Colts this week. As of this prediction, Jonathan Taylor is still wearing white and blue. If that holds true, he’ll be the target to eliminate on Sunday. After watching Tyler Allgeier make swiss cheese of the run defense, forgive me if I lack confidence in their ability to limit the Colts running back. Still, the pattern suggests Dallas will win this one. So with a big sigh and shrug, give me the Cowboys 31-24.
Matt Holleran (4-4)
I am very worried that this Cowboys team is broken upon repair. If this is the case, Sunday’s matchup against the Colts could end up being the lowest point of an already very low season. I have no confidence this team will show any fight or bounce back, even in a very winnable matchup. I hope I’m wrong, but I see this game being the culmination of the downward spiral as Dallas hits an even lower rock bottom. Give me Indy, 33-20.
Mike Poland (3-5)
Dallas should bounce back this weekend (well that’s what I’m hoping), and this matchup against Indianapolis gives them the perfect opportunity to do it. The Cowboys rank seventh-best in the NFL in points per game, while the Colts have the league’s worst defenses, allowing 28 points per game. The Colts have also struggled offensively, with Daniel Jones throwing nine interceptions to just five touchdowns. I’m expecting a positive outlook from Dallas and a much-needed victory to get their season moving in the right direction with the Cowboys winning 31-17. Or maybe I’m just being stupidly optimistic.
