Astros fans, after what can only be described as a disastrous homestand, it may be time to start thinking about something much bigger than whether this team can somehow find a way into the playoffs this season.
It’s time to start thinking about the state of the Houston Astros.
Not just for the remainder of this season, but for next year and beyond.
There is an old belief in professional sports that the worst thing a franchise can be is average. If you’re really bad, you’re going to get high draft picks
and opportunities to replenish your farm system with elite young talent. You can trade veteran players for prospects, create financial flexibility and potentially accelerate a rebuild.
When you’re really good, the benefits are obvious. Free agents want to play for you. Players with no-trade clauses are more likely to approve deals to join you. It’s easier to convince ownership to spend money at the trade deadline because you’re adding a piece or two to a legitimate championship contender.
But being stuck in the middle?
That’s where things get dangerous.
Houston Rockets fans should be very familiar with that territory. For years, the Rockets found themselves good enough to avoid completely bottoming out but not good enough to seriously contend for a championship.
That’s the situation the Astros have to be careful about falling into now.
Playing around .500 and flirting with a Wild Card spot can create the illusion that you’re closer than you really are. The same can be said for playing in a division where nobody has completely separated themselves from the pack. You look at the standings and convince yourself that if you can just get hot for a couple of weeks, you’re right back in it.
Maybe you are.
But then what?
More often than not, a mediocre team either misses the postseason altogether or sneaks into October and gets eliminated quickly, which is exactly what happened to Houston two seasons ago when the Tigers knocked the Astros out in the Wild Card round. Last season, the Astros missed the postseason entirely on the back of a tiebreaker.
That’s why Jim Crane has some incredibly difficult decisions coming.
And they go far beyond simply deciding the futures of General Manager Dana Brown and Manager Joe Espada.
Those decisions will obviously receive much of the attention, but Crane has to answer a much bigger question:
What exactly are the Houston Astros now?
Are they still a legitimate World Series contender that needs a couple of significant additions?
Or are they an aging team whose championship window is rapidly closing and needs to begin thinking about its next era?
Those are two completely different paths, and the worst thing the organization can do is refuse to choose one.
If Crane believes this core still has another legitimate World Series run in it, then go for it.
Really go for it.
That means accepting that maintaining a championship-caliber roster requires taking risks. It means making aggressive trades. It means being willing to commit significant money in free agency. It may even mean overpaying a player or two because that’s sometimes the cost of filling holes when you’re trying to win immediately.
The Astros have historically been reluctant to make those kinds of long-term financial commitments, and there are understandable reasons for that.
We’ve seen what happens when those moves go wrong.
The Jose Abreu contract is the most obvious recent example. Crane and the Astros spent significant money trying to fill a major need, and it simply didn’t work. There have been other moves that haven’t produced the expected return, so nobody should blame Crane for being apprehensive about throwing huge amounts of money at another free agent.
But if you’re going to keep telling everyone the championship window is open, eventually you have to make moves that reflect that philosophy.
Crane has repeatedly maintained that as long as he owns the Astros, the window to compete for a World Series championship will remain open.
That’s exactly what Astros fans want to hear.
The problem is that the results of the last several seasons suggest Houston is moving further away from another championship rather than closer to one.
That’s where this becomes uncomfortable.
At some point, an organization has to distinguish between believing in its championship culture and trying to recreate something that no longer exists.
Nobody wants the greatest era of Astros baseball to end.
This franchise went from being an organization that couldn’t get over the hump to becoming one of the standards of Major League Baseball. World Series appearances became almost expected. Playing deep into October became normal. Winning the AL West wasn’t the goal anymore—it was simply the first step toward the real goal.
That’s an incredible legacy, and everyone involved deserves credit for it.
But that success can’t become the reason the organization refuses to acknowledge when it’s time to change direction.
If this season ends up looking a whole lot like last season, Crane has to seriously evaluate whether continuing to patch holes and chase one more playoff run is actually helping the franchise or simply delaying an inevitable transition.
Because there is another option.
Press reset.
That doesn’t necessarily mean tearing everything down and accepting five years of 100-loss baseball. It doesn’t have to mean a complete rebuild.
It could mean making difficult decisions on veteran players while they still have trade value. It could mean prioritizing young talent and rebuilding organizational depth. It could mean creating payroll flexibility so that when the next Astros core begins to emerge, the franchise has the resources to surround it with established talent.
Most importantly, it would mean having a direction.
That’s what Astros fans should be thinking about as they watch the remainder of this season.
Not simply, “Can they still win the division?”
Not simply, “Can they grab a Wild Card?”
Ask the bigger question:
If they do, are they actually good enough to do anything once they get there?
Because if the answer is no, then Houston may be approaching a crossroads that Crane and this organization can no longer avoid.
Either believe this team can still contend and make the aggressive moves necessary to give it a legitimate chance to win another World Series, or acknowledge that this incredible run is nearing its conclusion and start building the foundation for the next one.
Just don’t get caught in the middle.
In professional sports, that’s often the hardest place to escape.
So what do you want them to do, Astros fans?
Take another big swing and try to extend the Golden Era one more time?
Or, if this season ends the way last season did, accept that this may be as good as it gets with the current group and begin figuring out how to build the next great Astros team?
Jim Crane may soon have to make that choice.
And it could be the most important decision he’s made since buying the Houston Astros.
