They’re 20-0. They’re one of two undefeated teams in Division I women’s college basketball. They’ve got a top-10 win.
But until they take down one of the SEC’s traditional titans, skepticism will surround No. 5 Vanderbilt. Are the Commodores are “good story” or are they a great team?
Sunday afternoon, they can certify their status as a true contender. All they have to do is defeat No. 2 South Carolina (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).
More specifically, they have to beat South Carolina in Columbia. And even more specifically, they have to send
South Carolina to a second-straight loss, as the Gamecocks lost in overtime to No. 16 Oklahoma on Thursday.
Complete this tall task, and there will be no more doubts about the ‘Dores.
So, can they do it? Here’s three reasons to be confident in the Commodores, and one reason to be concerned.
1. Vandy is not just The Mikayla Blakes Show
After the Sooners carved up the Gamecock defense for 94 points, the most a South Carolina squad has sacrificed since 2019, expect head coach Dawn Staley’s team to be ready to deliver a more typical defensive performance on Sunday afternoon.
That will begin with not permitting Mikayla Blakes get going.
The nation’s second-leading scorer, Blakes surely know she’s in store for intense defensive attention, starting with Raven Johnson marking her every move in the offensive halfcourt. Last season, when South Carolina blew out Vandy in Nashville, Blakes had to battle her way to 19 points, earning seven of her points from free throws.
However, as Vanderbilt recently proved against No. 7 Michigan, they can find a way to win even if Blakes is unable to show off her full scoring repertoire. In that one, fearless freshman Aubrey Galvan assumed an increased scoring role, putting in a career-high 20 points to help the Commodores stave off the Wolverines’ attempted comeback.
2. The Commodores understand the power of the 3-pointer
The Commodores are the SEC’s best 3-point shooting team, as head coach Shea Ralph has encouraged her team to take the most 3s per game in the conference—and, helpfully, they’re also making the most 3s per game in the conference.
As a team, the Commodores shoot better than 36 percent from deep. Justine Pissott leads the way. Standing 6-foot-4, she’s able to get off more than seven triples per game, which she drains at an almost 44 percent clip. Albeit at a lower volume, Jada Brown also nets more than 41 percent of her 3s.
Such an analytically-inclined offensive strategy can allow Vandy to negate South Carolina’s signature ownership of the interior. The Gamecocks, in contrast, rank 13th in SEC play in 3-point attempts. If Vandy is making 3-pointers while South Carolina seeks 2-pointers, that’s advantage Commodores.
3. The Commodores also can control the possession game
In conference play, Vanderbilt also has been better in the possession game, a traditional South Carolina strength.
Against SEC opponents, Vandy is committing the third-fewest turnovers (13.7) while forcing the most turnovers (19.5). Against SEC foes, South Carolina is coughing up the ball about an extra time per game (14.7), compared to the Commodores; they’re also forcing about one less turnover per game (18.7).
Those one or two extra possessions could prove pivotal on Sunday. In particular, by limiting their own turnovers, Vanderbilt can prevent South Carolina from revving up their transition machine.
4. Vandy might get bullied on the boards
But even if Vanderbilt is able to excercise these advantages—scoring beyond Blakes, 3-point shooting and the possession game—there’s one big area of concern: the boards.
Here again, South Carolina’s loss at Oklahoma bodes poorly for Vanderbilt. The Sooners outrebounded the Gamecocks in rather dominant fashion, suggesting that owning the glass will be a top priority for South Carolina on Sunday.
Madina Okot is one of the best rebounders in the nation, while Joyce Edwards and Agot Makeer also can get after the glass. R. Johnson also is an elite rebounder for a guard. Their efforts help South Carolina rank second in the SEC in rebounds per game, grabbing nearly 40 per contest.
Against SEC competition, Vanderbilt has averaged just 31.5 total boards per game. They’re weaker on the defensive glass, which could open up crucial offensive rebounding and second-chance scoring opportunities for South Carolina. Stronger on the offensive glass, largely thanks to the incessant efforts of Sacha Washington, the Commodores can extend their own possessions and, just as critically, prevent the Gamecocks from turning their misses into transition makes.
On paper, the statistics and strategies suggest that the Commodores have a strong chance of proving their staying power.
They can, and will, win anywhere—across the SEC and across the country.
Yet, South Carolina, even with two losses now on their ledger, still possesses an intangible factor that makes it hard to imagine them dropping a second-straight game, even to a team of the quality of the Commodores.
