The NBA Playoffs are a fickle beast, and that remains especially true for the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Three of the four first round series went the distance, which saw the pre-playoff favorite Boston Celtics be eliminated after blowing a 3-1 lead to the Sixers. The number one seed Detroit Pistons staged a 3-1 comeback of their own, highlighted by a 24-point comeback win in game six in Orlando. The Cavaliers toppled the Raptors in seven games, which saw the home team win all seven contests. And
last, but certainly not least, the Knicks closed out the Hawks in game six, which was an all-time beat down.
What could the semifinals bring? Our brightest betting minds here at Mavs Moneyball have some disagreement about what the future might hold.
Check out our Western Conference Semifinals preview here.
(1) Pistons vs (4) Cavaliers
Series moneyline: Detroit -120, Cavs +102
David’s pick: Cavaliers over Pistons 4-2
I do not think either of these teams are real. Detroit looked really bad after going down 3-1 to a Magic team that had no identity. But the Pistons won 60 games for a reason and ultimately did not fall victim to the same fate the Mavericks did 19 years ago. Donovan Mitchell has been a career loser in the playoffs and James Harden’s choking is well documented. Fortunately for them, experience will win out here and the Pistons’ dream season will fall short of their ultimate goal.
Series props:
- Cavaliers to win (+105)
- Series to go 6 games (+200)
- Detroit to win game one/Cleveland to win series (+320)
The Cavaliers will bring Donovan Mitchell to the conference finals for the first time. James Harden will have a chance to go back to the NBA Finals. They will finish it in six games after Detroit runs out of shooting. I think the Pistons will come out and keep their momentum alive in game one, but will not win another game until game 5.
Tyler’s pick: Pistons over Cavs 4-1
The Pistons were just down 3-1 to the Orlando Magic, so you might be wondering why exactly I think they lay the hammer here. It’s simple for me: Detroit is going to physically beat Cleveland into submission. Jalen Duren was pretty brutal against Orlando, but in game seven he finally found some form. Instead of the physical front line of Orlando, he and his Pistons will face off with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who are not exactly known for their power game. Detroit is going to get the series they want here. It’ll be ugly, physical basketball with final scores rarely exceeding 100. If that is indeed the case, this will be over quickly.
Series props:
- Pistons -1.5 series spread (+155)
- Detroit to be leading 3-0 after game three (+490)
- Jalen Duren to lead series in rebounds (-115)
There’s not much to be added here, I really like the Pistons to get the job done early. And as noted above, I don’t think Jalen Duren’s struggles against a very physical Orlando front line will carry over against the Cavs, who are a different team that plays a different brand of basketball. I would venture to guess that Duren has a great series here on the glass.
(3) Knicks vs (7) Sixers
Series moneyline: Knicks -270, Sixers +220
David’s pick: Sixers over Knicks 4-3
This is going to be a fantastic series if Joel Embiid plays all of it. Even if he misses a game or two, there will be fireworks. Both teams will struggle to defend the other, and the bad blood runs through the veins of every player. It is not hyperbole to say that this is a legacy-defining series for Embiid. He just defeated his Celtics demons and now faces the easiest path to the NBA Finals that he has had in his career. On the flip side, Jalen Brunson is still looking to get over the hump as the number one guy. Every guy in this series has something to prove. The deciding factor will be who has the better player, and that honor goes to Joel Embiid and the Sixers. Philadelphia wins game seven in a close game.
Series props:
- Sixers to come back from a 2 game deficit (+1000)
- Sixers to win (+220)
- Over 5.5 games (-150)
I think the Knicks hold serve at home and go up 2-0. After the extended rest, the Sixers get right and ultimately win four out of five. The over on 5.5 seems free, this has seven game classic written all over it.
Tyler’s pick: Knicks over Sixers 4-3
I’ve gone back and forth on this a couple of times. The Knicks are the kings of engaging in nonsense, while the Sixers are not immune to that themselves. This series will feature small guards everywhere, the rekindling of a feud between Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns. The coaching angle here is interesting as well, as I give a pretty strong edge to the Sixers staff.
So with that, why exactly am I taking the Knicks? I think the role players for New York are going to do circles around what Philly has outside of Maxey and Embiid. The Knicks have great main role players in Hart, Bridges and Robinson, and even then the fringe guys like Shamet, McBride and Alvarado can all do something well. When you look at the other side, Philly will basically run six or seven guys, with Quentin Grimes and Andre Drummond being the only real guys who get minutes. Because the Knicks will run a couple guys deeper, they should have a massive advantage on rest and having their legs.
Series props:
- Sixers +1.5 series spread (-120)
- Knicks game one + series win (-105)
- Josh Hart to lead series in rebounds (+500)
There are tons of trends about teams who just won a game seven facing a team who didn’t play seven games in a game one. Spoiler alert: the rested team does really well! I expect a resounding Knicks game one win, but that will not change my opinion on the series. As far as Hart goes, I wonder if Towns and Embiid cancel each other out in this series on the glass. They could be too busy fighting amongst themselves, which in turn would get KAT into foul trouble. Enter Josh Hart, who averaged over 10 rebounds per game against the Sixers last postseason.
