It was almost a foregone conclusion that the Cardinals would sign some middling but somewhat capable innings eater this offseason, with the rotation already looking pretty thin before Sonny Gray was traded
away. To my knowledge, Dustin May was not mentioned by anyone in connection with the Cardinals. But when it happened, what made the most sense was that it is a 1 year contract. This works well for both sides: May is trying to prove himself for a longer-term contract, while coming off some seasons that do not reflect his full potential… the Cardinals need someone for the rotation because there is a lot of uncertainty and lower innings totals. Liberatore and McGreevy will most likely shoulder the most innings in the rotation, so May should at the least provide another bulk of inning-eating potential, especially if he’s bulked up and ready to go. Leahy is coming out of the bullpen and building upon 88 innings of relief. Fitts may be re-worked at AAA depending on his spring training performance. Pallante is a big if at this point.
Signing May also makes sense because of the upside potential. If he can reclaim the ceiling of his 2021 and 2023 years, he could be an upgrade over Sonny Gray. His early career years of 2019 and 2020 are good too. The big if here is probably whether or not he has healed from his injuries in such a way they do not effect his pitching performance. It’s a gamble, but it will not rush any pitching prospects to the majors during a rebuild season. With May entering his peak years, he may be pushing for a big contract once baseball resumes after 2026. This is in effect a contract season for him, but a good gamble timing-wise for the Cardinals.
The ugly part is that he had arm soreness in September last season and was ineffective after he was traded to the Red Sox. His ERA was nearly 5 with the Dodgers and 5.40 with his most recent team. To be a pragmatic defender of such a high risk but high reward signing, he is still going to be better than re-signing Miles Mikolas another year if he hits the floor (that or he’s just injured himself out of the rotation, but he contributed some innings at least). This guy’s podcast agrees, there are reasons to be both optimistic and pessimistic about this signing.
Once a top prospect, May certainly has talent. Injuries have been holding him back, but Chaim Bloom must see something in his fastball still. Spin rates on the fastball, curve, and cutter are really good. The movement on his sweeper and slider are just sick. And he’s just 28 entering his prime. It will be a shame if injuries will hold this guy back, but you never know. The most important key to the puzzle is the 1 year contract.
If May can work on his walk rate issues, put on some weight, and overall adjust his game to where it needs to be, he will be an inspiration for the team. Some pitchers are able to re-invent themselves with lesser velocity post-injuries, so that could be another pathway to success for May. Ultimately he is a wild card pick with a low floor and high upside. A roll of the dice to make it interesting. Maybe Bloom will also acquire a more boring arm for the pitching staff. Perhaps May will end up being used in the bullpen. We just don’t know. Maybe Bloom is trying to heal guys with neuritis from Boston. What if the new President of Baseball Ops plans on spreading the starting innings over a lot of different arms? A tiered 8 man rotation with more of an open road with Memphis?
I think that there will be another pitching acquisition, probably two. Yahoo breaks down what to expect from this first Chaim Bloom offseason. Bloom will try to compete at the MLB level, but the focus will be on building prospect capital, thinking towards the future while making the present at least as good as the last couple of seasons. If the Cardinals can manage the innings of all these iffy injury pitchers most effectively, we might be in for some fun.
This dude named Chris Studley actually wrote a breakdown regarding Dustin May, a quick but rather informative read!
To be honest looking at Dustin’s career stats is almost total chaos. I have no idea what to expect. Is he a starter or a reliever? Can he not get hurt? Will he have the ERA of an Ace or a back of the rotation pitcher? Somewhere in between? This acquisition is adding a widely variant factor to the equation. If he can stick out the season, you’re looking at a 2+ fWAR addition to a thin rotation. If not, it will push the development of a younger pitcher, unless yet another arm is added to the rotation. And we will likely see an addition to the bullpen still, there’s a long ways to go this offseason! Lots could happen still.
The only question left is, what the cost? It’s only a billionaire’s money, so should we care? To some extent, no. We want to be entertained. We want fun. Spend away; this is how the market works: attract talent with dollar signs. But it also works from internal development. Supposedly, the Dewitts are restrained by the amount of money they are “pouring” into developmental technologies and new facilities. As an aside, I wonder at what point a ballclub decides to go all in on implementing cyborg-like technologies to augment the human form’s outmost capabilities. I think I just made up a word, outmost.
But yeah, back to reality, or that of which we know of it: what’s a fair contract for Dustin May? I’m guessing he will get around $12 million for one year, maybe incentive-laden contract, with perhaps a mutual option in 2027/28. What is funny is that it’s not even a done deal, but here we are, waiting to see the details of the 1 year contract. There will be more to come, I’m sure!
Check out this poll I made if you approve of Dustin May or not (or undecided)
Also, should Brendan Donovan be traded for prospects, MLB ready talent, or not at all?
