Week 10 is the official beginning of a new era for the Las Vegas Raiders
, as rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza is set to make his first start against the Seattle Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Raiders are still in the playoff picture, and general manager John Spytek made it clear that trading Kirk Cousins and turning the reins over to Mendoza isn’t a sign that the team is punting on its postseason aspirations.Taking down the defending Super Bowl Champions will be no easy task for Las Vegas, as we dive
into this week’s key matchups.
Mendoza/Kubiak vs. Seahawks’ Defense
Normally, I stay away from broad key matchups like this one because a quarterback and offensive play caller against the opposing defense is significant every week. However, a rookie making his first start against the NFL’s top-ranked defense isn’t a typical circumstance that can be ignored.
How good is Seattle at shutting down its opponents? Not only does the unit lead the league in yards per game allowed (244.2), but it’s over 35 yards per game better than any other defense. For context, the difference between second (Minnesota Vikings at 280.0) and third place (San Francisco 49ers at 291.9) is a little less than 12 yards.
The Seahawks dip to tied for fourth in points per game (18.0), but that’s still a top-five unit, and they rank fourth in EPA per play allowed (-0.14), according to Sumer Sports. Diving even deeper, they’re also giving up the fewest passing yards per game (155.1) and are tied for third in EPA per pass allowed (-0.17).
That’s the result of having legitimate difference makers on all three levels of the defense between defensive tackle Leonard Williams, linebacker Ernest Jones IV and cornerback Devon Witherspoon, just to name a few. But that also speaks to head coach Mike Macdonald’s scheme and play calling, as his system can create a lot of confusion for young quarterbacks.
For example, Macdonald is 6-0 in games where a rookie quarterback attempts at least one pass as the Seahawks’ head coach, per Sumer. So far, the Tennessee Titans’ Cam Ward (256 yards and one passing touchdown) is the only first-year passer to throw for more than 130 yards and a touchdown against Macdonald.
But what could give Mendoza an advantage over the other signal callers is that Raiders head coach and offensive play caller Klint Kubiak should know Seattle’s defense well, having spent last season as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator. That should help Kubiak scheme up some easy throws to help the young quarterback exploit a potential weakness in the scheme, especially early in the game to get him in a groove.
Also, the No. 1 pick has been running the scout-team offense against Rob Leonard’s defense, and Leonard’s scheme is similar to Macdonald’s. Granted, Vegas’ defense executes it at a much lower level, but Mendoza should at least have some familiarity with the confusing looks Seattle can present.
In other words, there probably isn’t a worse defense for a rookie quarterback to make his first start against. But the 2025 Heisman Trophy Winner does have a great cornerman to assist in navigating the fight.
Raiders’ IOL vs. Seahawks DTs
As mentioned above, Williams is a big key to Seattle’s top-ranked defense. He was listed as the best defensive tackle in the NFL in Jeremy Fowler of ESPN’s poll of executives, scouts and coaches, with one coordinator noting that Williams “was the most important player on that Super Bowl team”.
This season, the three-time Pro Bowler has picked up right where he left off. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks tied for eighth among defensive tackles in pressures (26) and is tied for fifth in run defense grade (77.9). Part of the reason for the latter is that Williams has racked up 12 ‘defensive stops’ at a 9.8% rate against the run, with both figures ranking in the Top 25 at his position.
[Editor’s note: Williams missed last week’s game with a stinger and is considered questionable for this Sunday at the time of writing.]
But what makes Seattle’s front even scarier is that Byron Murphy II is just as productive. Murphy is sixth among interior defenders in pressures (28) and tied for 13th in run stops (14) at an 8.9% rate. Additionally, Seattle’s third defensive tackle, Jarran Reed, doesn’t offer much as a pass-rusher but is a quality run defender, currently sitting in the top 40 for the position with nine stops against the run.
Part of the problem with Williams and Murphy is that those two will line up at several spots on the defensive line. Of Williams’ 358 snaps, 100 have come as a left defensive tackle, 67 have been at right end, 65 at right defensive tackle and 42 at left end, per PFF. Meanwhile, Murphy typically doesn’t play wider than the guards, but he’s registered 252 snaps at both DT spots combined and 80 at nose tackle.
So, there will be no breaks for the Raiders’ interior offensive line on Sunday, and the unit needs center Tyler Linderbaum to be at his best.
While Linderbaum has faced scrutiny for not living up to the massive contract he signed in the offseason, the free agent addition has picked it up in the last few weeks. He’s only given up two pressures on 108 opportunities and has a 73.7 PFF run-blocking grade during that time frame. For context, his overall mark of 65.3 ranks 14th among centers for the entire season, but he’s tied for sixth at 74.9 in Weeks 7-9.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have a big question mark at right guard. Rookie Trey Zuhn III has been solid in his first two starts during the team’s last two games, giving up just two pressures and posting an above-average 64.7 run-blocking mark.
However, Zuhn is in concussion protocol after exiting last Sunday’s contest in San Francisco early. If he can’t go, that likely means either Jackson Powers-Johnson or Caleb Rogers starts, both of whom have been benched already this year.
At left guard, it’s hard to know what version of Spencer Burford Las Vegas will get. Since Week 4, he’s followed a trend of earning a PFF grade well above the 60.0 baseline mark in one game and then being well below it in the next. He’s yo-yo’d from an 80.2 mark to 23.4, 72.0 to 50.1, and 77.4 to 43.6 during that timeframe. That suggests Week 10 will be a strong outing for the fifth-year pro; however, the Seahawks have the best collection of defensive tackles the Raiders have faced this season.
Bowers vs. Witherspoon
It’s been well-documented that Brock Bowers is a unique offensive weapon who commands the attention of an opponent’s best coverage defender, especially since the Silver and Black’s offense isn’t exactly flush with talent at wide receiver. Raider Nation doesn’t need that to be rehashed here.
This week, Bowers should expect to see cornerback Devon Witherspoon often.
Witherspoon became the NFL’s highest-paid corner this offseason (until Christian Gonzalez surpassed him a few weeks later), signing a four-year, $132 million ($33 million per year) contract extension. That’s a good indicator of how impactful he is on the Seahawks’ defense, and he’s been used all over the secondary this season. per PFF, 181 snaps have been at slot corner, 147 snaps on the right boundary and 141 on the left. That sets up well to shadow Bowers.
Production-wise, the three-time Pro Bowler hasn’t made many plays on the ball this season, with no interceptions and just three passes defended. Also, he’s allowing a 73.3% completion percentage when targeted, per PFF. However, that can be chalked up to having the sixth-lowest average depth of target (5.9 yards) among corners, and no player at the position has made more impactful tackles in coverage with 19 ‘defensive stops’. The latter is six more than any other cornerback.
That has allowed Witherspoon to rank ninth at his position in yards per catch allowed (7.5) and could help limit Bowers’ YAC ability. But the 6-foot-4, 240-pound tight end should have an advantage when it comes to contested catches against the 5-foot-11, 181-pound defensive back. Regardless of position, Bowers is tied for the most contested catches (15) in the NFL and has a 68.2% contested catch rate, per Sumer Sports. Meanwhile, Witherspoon has given up three grabs on five such targets.
That sets up for a heck of a prize fight between two young and ascending players in the league.
Raiders’ Secondary vs. Smith-Njigba
If the matchup above is best-on-best, this one is a complete mismatch.
A year after winning Offensive Player of the Year and nearly recording 1,800 receiving yards during the regular season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on pace to put up even better numbers in 2026. He’s currently the only player in the league with 1,000 yards — rushing or receiving — and is averaging roughly 10 more yards per game this season (115.1 to 105.5).
Additionally, Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns with nine, one fewer than he had in 17 games a year ago, and has about one more catch per game (7.9 to 7.0). Not to be forgotten; he’s had triple-digit receiving yards in seven out of nine weeks, and leads the league with 3.49 yards per route run, per PFF, this season.
Part of what makes JSN so difficult to stop is that he can win from anywhere, and the Seahawks move him around a bunch, logging 211 snaps as left outside receiver, 176 on the right side and 109 in the slot. That allows the fourth-year pro to get favorable matchups and pick on weaker corners; bad news for a Raiders’ secondary that allows the third-highest EPA per pass (0.16), per Sumer, and has been getting torched lately.
PFF has top corner Eric Stokes on the hook for 363 receiving yards in 2026, with 116 coming in the last two weeks. The former is already over 100 more yards than he gave up all of last season and is the most he’s surrendered since his rookie campaign.
At the other outside cornerback spot, the Raiders have primarily rotated second-year pro Darien Porter and rookie Hezekiah Masses. Combined, those two have yielded 436 yards, with Porter accounting for 200 and Masses for 236.
Granted, rookie Jermod McCoy has received more playing time recently and had a good showing last week in San Francisco with a pair of pass breakups. But McCoy’s sample size is small, with just 41 coverage snaps in the regular season.
The good news for Las Vegas is that nickelback Taron Johnson has been pretty stingy in slot coverage. He’s allowed 102 yards on 181 coverage snaps to rank third among nickel in yards per coverage snap (0.56), according to PFF. That could keep the reining OPOY on the perimeter this weekend.
In other words, the Silver and Black are going to need every defensive back to elevate their game to have any shot at slowing down the most productive wide receiver in the NFL this weekend.
